唐納德·川普的比特幣計劃標誌著美元時代的結束

加密貨幣有望成為唐納德·川普美國總統第二任期經濟政策的核心。可以說，他最具爭議性的提議是建立比特幣戰略儲備（SBR）。

Donald Trump’s economic policies for his second term as US president are set to centre on cryptocurrencies, with the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR) being his most controversial proposal.

唐納德·川普作為美國總統的第二個任期的經濟政策將以加密貨幣為中心，建立戰略比特幣儲備（SBR）是他最具爭議的提議。

The main political questions surrounding an SBR revolve around its structure and whether Trump will be able to deliver on the proposal, given that it would need to pass through the House of Representatives. However, there are already 13 US states that are actively considering or have proposed legislation to establish a SBR.

圍繞 SBR 的主要政治問題圍繞其結構以及川普是否能夠兌現該提案，因為該提案需要在眾議院獲得通過。然而，美國已有13個州正在積極考慮或已提議立法建立SBR。

Economically, one of the main arguments for an SBR is that it can act as a hedge to protect a country’s wealth against inflation and currency devaluation. Whereas typical currencies can be printed at will by central banks, causing their value to decrease, there is a fixed supply of bitcoin (the number in circulation cannot pass 21 million), potentially limiting its devaluation.

從經濟角度來看，支持 SBR 的主要論點之一是它可以作為對沖工具，保護一國的財富免受通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值的影響。中央銀行可以隨意印製典型貨幣，導致其價值下降，而比特幣的供應量是固定的（流通數量不能超過 2,100 萬），這可能會限制其貶值。

So advocates say an SBR could act as a relatively safe store of wealth in much the same way as gold reserves are now. It is for this reason that bitcoin has been labelled “digital gold”.

因此，支持者表示，SBR 可以充當相對安全的財富儲存手段，就像現在的黃金儲備一樣。正是因為這個原因，比特幣被貼上了「數位黃金」的標籤。

Another popular argument is that the monetary value of the SBR could appreciate rapidly and hence pay down US national debt. This too is largely a theoretical and untested argument however, and the precise mechanisms remain unclear.

另一個流行的觀點是，SBR 的貨幣價值可能會迅速升值，從而償還美國國債。然而，這在很大程度上也是一個理論上的、未經檢驗的論點，確切的機制仍不清楚。

On the other hand, some analysts are concerned that an SBR could lead to a loss of confidence in the dollar, potentially destabilising the US currency. If bitcoin were widely adopted as a global reserve currency, for example, this might destabilise the dollar’s position as the world’s primary reserve currency.

另一方面，一些分析師擔心SBR可能會導致人們對美元失去信心，這可能會破壞美元的穩定。例如，如果比特幣被廣泛採用作為全球儲備貨幣，這可能會動搖美元作為世界主要儲備貨幣的地位。

Of course, any such instability may be heightened by bitcoin’s historic price volatility. This saw, for example, its price soar from around US$3,800 (£3,126) at the start of 2019 to nearly US$68,000 in November 2021. It then lost almost half of its value by late January 2022, falling to about US$35,000. But today it is above US$95,000.

當然，比特幣歷史上的價格波動可能會加劇任何此類不穩定。例如，其價格從 2019 年初的約 3,800 美元（3,126 英鎊）飆升至 2021 年 11 月的近 68,000 美元。但今天它已經超過了 95,000 美元。

Beyond these concerns, however, the SBR highlights a more fundamental, era-defining shift – one that is already under way and will continue regardless of Trump’s bitcoin plans.

然而，除了這些擔憂之外，SBR 還強調了一個更根本的、劃時代的轉變——這一轉變已經在進行中，無論川普的比特幣計劃如何，它都將繼續下去。

To understand this shift, it is helpful to place the rise of cryptocurrencies in context. The post-second world war order was initially structured around a dollar-dominated system – with the US dollar pegged to gold and a host of other currencies pegged to the dollar. This provided stability and confidence in the dollar’s value.

為了理解這種轉變，將加密貨幣的興起放在背景中會有所幫助。二戰後的秩序最初是圍繞著美元主導的體系構建的——美元與黃金掛鉤，許多其他貨幣與美元掛鉤。這為美元價值提供了穩定性和信心。

The fixed-rate system was abandoned in the 1970s, however US dominance was retained through the petrodollar system where oil was priced in dollars. The dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency and the US’s influence in international institutions like the IMF and World Bank reinforced this dominance.

固定利率體系在 1970 年代被放棄，但美國透過石油美元體系保持了主導地位，石油以美元定價。美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位以及美國在國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行等國際機構中的影響力強化了這種主導地位。

But three overlapping trends have threatened to dislodge the dominance of the dollar over the past two decades. First, the rise of emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others (the BRICS+) is creating a more multipolar global system. This is challenging the US’s position as the sole superpower, and reshaping the geopolitical landscape. While experiencing rapid economic growth, these countries have also increased their global leadership roles.

但過去二十年來，三種重疊的趨勢有可能取代美元的主導地位。首先，巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國、南非等新興經濟體（金磚國家+）的崛起正在創造一個更多極化的全球體系。這正在挑戰美國作為唯一超級大國的地位，並重塑地緣政治格局。這些國家在經濟快速成長的同時，其全球領導地位也不斷增強。

The second trend has been the decentralisation of the financial system and the rise of “private money”, particularly in response to the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Private money refers to any token used as money that is not backed or controlled by a sovereign or central bank. In this sense cryptocurrencies – which operate independently of traditional central bank and treasury money supply mechanisms – are the archetypal private money.

第二個趨勢是金融體系的去中心化和「私人資金」的崛起，特別是為了因應2007-08年的全球金融危機。私人貨幣是指不受主權或中央銀行支持或控制的任何用作貨幣的代幣。從這個意義上說，獨立於傳統央行和國庫貨幣供應機制運作的加密貨幣是典型的私人貨幣。

Besides the shift towards private money lies a third trend. This is where governments give private actors like crypto providers and exchanges significant control (“infrastructural power”) in a bid to achieve public policy goals using the financial tools and services provided by these actors. This is a big change from the old order where governments had more direct authority.

除了向私人資金的轉變之外，還有第三個趨勢。這是政府給予加密貨幣提供者等私人參與者並交換重要控制權（「基礎設施權力」）的地方，以便利用這些參與者提供的金融工具和服務來實現公共政策目標。這與政府擁有更直接權力的舊秩序相比是一個巨大的變化。

Reports that Trump has made crypto a priority signal the next step in this shift. The balance of power is moving away from states and towards companies that block-hold cryptocurrencies, exchanges upon which cryptocurrencies are traded, and the owners of exchange-traded cryptocurrency funds.

有報導稱川普已將加密貨幣作為優先事項，這標誌著這一轉變的下一步。權力平衡正在從國家轉向持有加密貨幣的公司、進行加密貨幣交易的交易所以及交易所交易的加密貨幣基金的所有者。

This could be a watershed moment. If the US, another leading economic power (like China), or a series of larger emerging economies (like the rest of the BRICS) become block-holders of bitcoin or other major cryptocurrencies, it could trigger the emergence of a cryptocurrency “arms race” on a global scale. This would see country after country rushing to bolster their reserves.

這可能是個分水嶺時刻。如果美國、另一個主要經濟大國（如中國）或一系列較大的新興經濟體（如其他金磚國家）成為比特幣或其他主要加密貨幣的大股東，可能會引發加密貨幣“軍備競賽” ”在全球範圍內。這將導致一個又一個國家爭先恐後地增加其儲備。

There are already media reports that other nations, including Japan, Russia and China, are accumulating bitcoin ahead of a possible SBR announcement by the US. And Trump has even indicated that he might repeal a controversial

已經有媒體報道稱，在美國可能宣布 SBR 之前，包括日本、俄羅斯和中國在內的其他國家正在累積比特幣。川普甚至表示他可能會廢除一項有爭議的法案