唐纳德·特朗普的比特币计划标志着美元时代的结束

加密货币有望成为唐纳德·特朗普美国总统第二任期经济政策的核心。可以说，他最具争议性的提议是建立比特币战略储备（SBR）。

Donald Trump’s economic policies for his second term as US president are set to centre on cryptocurrencies, with the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR) being his most controversial proposal.

唐纳德·特朗普作为美国总统的第二个任期的经济政策将以加密货币为中心，建立战略比特币储备（SBR）是他最具争议的提议。

The main political questions surrounding an SBR revolve around its structure and whether Trump will be able to deliver on the proposal, given that it would need to pass through the House of Representatives. However, there are already 13 US states that are actively considering or have proposed legislation to establish a SBR.

围绕 SBR 的主要政治问题围绕其结构以及特朗普是否能够兑现该提案，因为该提案需要在众议院获得通过。然而，美国已有13个州正在积极考虑或已提议立法建立SBR。

Economically, one of the main arguments for an SBR is that it can act as a hedge to protect a country’s wealth against inflation and currency devaluation. Whereas typical currencies can be printed at will by central banks, causing their value to decrease, there is a fixed supply of bitcoin (the number in circulation cannot pass 21 million), potentially limiting its devaluation.

从经济角度来看，支持 SBR 的主要论据之一是它可以作为对冲工具，保护一国的财富免受通货膨胀和货币贬值的影响。中央银行可以随意印制典型货币，导致其价值下降，而比特币的供应量是固定的（流通数量不能超过 2100 万），这可能会限制其贬值。

So advocates say an SBR could act as a relatively safe store of wealth in much the same way as gold reserves are now. It is for this reason that bitcoin has been labelled “digital gold”.

因此，支持者表示，SBR 可以充当相对安全的财富储存手段，就像现在的黄金储备一样。正是因为这个原因，比特币被贴上了“数字黄金”的标签。

Another popular argument is that the monetary value of the SBR could appreciate rapidly and hence pay down US national debt. This too is largely a theoretical and untested argument however, and the precise mechanisms remain unclear.

另一个流行的观点是，SBR 的货币价值可能会迅速升值，从而偿还美国国债。然而，这在很大程度上也是一个理论上的、未经检验的论点，确切的机制仍不清楚。

On the other hand, some analysts are concerned that an SBR could lead to a loss of confidence in the dollar, potentially destabilising the US currency. If bitcoin were widely adopted as a global reserve currency, for example, this might destabilise the dollar’s position as the world’s primary reserve currency.

另一方面，一些分析师担心SBR可能会导致人们对美元失去信心，从而可能破坏美元的稳定。例如，如果比特币被广泛采用作为全球储备货币，这可能会动摇美元作为世界主要储备货币的地位。

Of course, any such instability may be heightened by bitcoin’s historic price volatility. This saw, for example, its price soar from around US$3,800 (£3,126) at the start of 2019 to nearly US$68,000 in November 2021. It then lost almost half of its value by late January 2022, falling to about US$35,000. But today it is above US$95,000.

当然，比特币历史上的价格波动可能会加剧任何此类不稳定。例如，其价格从 2019 年初的约 3,800 美元（3,126 英镑）飙升至 2021 年 11 月的近 68,000 美元。到 2022 年 1 月下旬，其价值几乎损失了一半，跌至约 35,000 美元。但今天它已经超过了 95,000 美元。

Beyond these concerns, however, the SBR highlights a more fundamental, era-defining shift – one that is already under way and will continue regardless of Trump’s bitcoin plans.

然而，除了这些担忧之外，SBR 还强调了一个更根本的、划时代的转变——这一转变已经在进行中，并且无论特朗普的比特币计划如何，它都将继续下去。

To understand this shift, it is helpful to place the rise of cryptocurrencies in context. The post-second world war order was initially structured around a dollar-dominated system – with the US dollar pegged to gold and a host of other currencies pegged to the dollar. This provided stability and confidence in the dollar’s value.

为了理解这种转变，将加密货币的兴起放在背景中会有所帮助。二战后的秩序最初是围绕美元主导的体系构建的——美元与黄金挂钩，许多其他货币与美元挂钩。这为美元价值提供了稳定性和信心。

The fixed-rate system was abandoned in the 1970s, however US dominance was retained through the petrodollar system where oil was priced in dollars. The dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency and the US’s influence in international institutions like the IMF and World Bank reinforced this dominance.

固定利率体系在 20 世纪 70 年代被放弃，但美国通过石油美元体系保持了主导地位，石油以美元定价。美元作为世界储备货币的地位以及美国在国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际机构中的影响力强化了这种主导地位。

But three overlapping trends have threatened to dislodge the dominance of the dollar over the past two decades. First, the rise of emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others (the BRICS+) is creating a more multipolar global system. This is challenging the US’s position as the sole superpower, and reshaping the geopolitical landscape. While experiencing rapid economic growth, these countries have also increased their global leadership roles.

但过去二十年来，三种重叠的趋势有可能取代美元的主导地位。首先，巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非等新兴经济体（金砖国家+）的崛起正在创造一个更加多极化的全球体系。这正在挑战美国作为唯一超级大国的地位，并重塑地缘政治格局。这些国家在经济快速增长的同时，其全球领导地位也不断增强。

The second trend has been the decentralisation of the financial system and the rise of “private money”, particularly in response to the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Private money refers to any token used as money that is not backed or controlled by a sovereign or central bank. In this sense cryptocurrencies – which operate independently of traditional central bank and treasury money supply mechanisms – are the archetypal private money.

第二个趋势是金融体系的去中心化和“私人资金”的崛起，特别是为了应对2007-08年的全球金融危机。私人货币是指不受主权或中央银行支持或控制的任何用作货币的代币。从这个意义上说，独立于传统央行和国库货币供应机制运作的加密货币是典型的私人货币。

Besides the shift towards private money lies a third trend. This is where governments give private actors like crypto providers and exchanges significant control (“infrastructural power”) in a bid to achieve public policy goals using the financial tools and services provided by these actors. This is a big change from the old order where governments had more direct authority.

除了向私人资金的转变之外，还有第三个趋势。这是政府给予加密货币提供商等私人参与者并交换重要控制权（“基础设施权力”）的地方，以便利用这些参与者提供的金融工具和服务来实现公共政策目标。这与政府拥有更直接权力的旧秩序相比是一个巨大的变化。

Reports that Trump has made crypto a priority signal the next step in this shift. The balance of power is moving away from states and towards companies that block-hold cryptocurrencies, exchanges upon which cryptocurrencies are traded, and the owners of exchange-traded cryptocurrency funds.

有报道称特朗普已将加密货币作为优先事项，这标志着这一转变的下一步。权力平衡正在从国家转向持有加密货币的公司、进行加密货币交易的交易所以及交易所交易的加密货币基金的所有者。

This could be a watershed moment. If the US, another leading economic power (like China), or a series of larger emerging economies (like the rest of the BRICS) become block-holders of bitcoin or other major cryptocurrencies, it could trigger the emergence of a cryptocurrency “arms race” on a global scale. This would see country after country rushing to bolster their reserves.

这可能是一个分水岭时刻。如果美国、另一个主要经济大国（如中国）或一系列较大的新兴经济体（如其他金砖国家）成为比特币或其他主要加密货币的大股东，可能会引发加密货币“军备竞赛” ”在全球范围内。这将导致一个又一个国家争先恐后地增加其储备。

There are already media reports that other nations, including Japan, Russia and China, are accumulating bitcoin ahead of a possible SBR announcement by the US. And Trump has even indicated that he might repeal a controversial

已经有媒体报道称，在美国可能宣布 SBR 之前，包括日本、俄罗斯和中国在内的其他国家正在积累比特币。特朗普甚至表示他可能会废除一项有争议的法案