迪士尼 (DIS) 股票看起來被低估；一種方法是做空虛值 (OTM) 近期看跌期權，並在長期到期期內做多實值 (ITM) 看漲期權

1 月 3 日星期五，DIS 股價收在 111.16 美元。

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) stock has been trading flat, but it still looks undervalued using several measures, including dividend yield and free cash flow. One way to play this is to short out-of-the-money (OTM) near-term puts and going long in-the-money (ITM) calls in long-dated expiry periods.

華特迪士尼公司（DIS）的股票交易一直持平，但從股息殖利率和自由現金流等多項指標來看，它的價值仍然被低估。一種方法是做空近期的虛值 (OTM) 看跌期權，並在長期到期期內做多實值 (ITM) 看漲期權。

DIS stock closed at $111.16 on Friday, Jan. 3. It's been flat since Nov. 14 when it was at $109.12, after Disney released its fiscal Q4 and full-year earnings on Nov. 13.

1 月 3 日星期五，DIS 股價收在 111.16 美元。

That makes it attractive to investors who sell short OTM puts and buy long-dated ITM calls. This article will delve into this more carefully.

這使得它對賣出 OTM 看跌期權空頭並買入長期 ITM 看漲期權的投資者俱有吸引力。本文將對此進行更仔細的探討。

DIS Stock Looks Undervalued

DIS 股票看起來被低估

Historical Dividend Yield. I wrote that DIS stock looked undervalued in a Dec. 6, 2024, Barchart article, “Disney's 33% Dividend Hike Implies DIS Stock Could Be 35% Undervalued.”

歷史股息收益率。我在 2024 年 12 月 6 日的 Barchart 文章「迪士尼 33% 的股息上漲意味著 DIS 股票可能被低估 35%」中寫道，DIS 股票看起來被低估。

I showed that based on its historical dividend yield DIS is worth $138.89 per share, based on its historical dividend yield of 0.72%:

我顯示，根據其歷史股息收益率 DIS 的價值為每股 138.89 美元（根據其歷史股息收益率 0.72%）：

$1.00 dividend per share / 0.0072 = $138.89 target price

每股股利 1.00 美元 / 0.0072 = 目標價 138.89 美元

That is 25% higher than Friday's closing price of $111.89.

這比周五收盤價 111.89 美元高出 25%。

Moreover, given its highest trading price, the stock could be worth as much as $152 per share.

此外，考慮到其最高交易價格，該股票的價值可能高達每股 152 美元。

Free Cash Flow. In addition, using a free cash flow (FCF) analysis, Disney could be worth as much as $164 per share. Here's why.

自由現金流。此外，根據自由現金流 (FCF) 分析，迪士尼每股價值可能高達 164 美元。原因如下。

Analysts forecast that sales this fiscal year (ending Sept. 2025) will reach $94.85 billion. And the following year they estimated $99.97 billion. So, for the next 12 months, the run rate revenue is about $97.4 billion.

分析師預測本會計年度（截至2025年9月）銷售額將達948.5億美元。第二年，他們估計價值 999.7 億美元。因此，未來 12 個月的運行率收入約為 974 億美元。

Since last quarter Disney made a 17.85% FCF margin, let's assume it make at least 17% going forward:

自從上季度迪士尼的自由現金流利潤率達到 17.85% 以來，我們假設它未來的利潤率至少為 17%：

$97.4 billion NTM sales x 0.17 = $16.6 billion in free cash flow (FCF)

974 億美元的 NTM 銷售額 x 0.17 = 166 億美元的自由現金流 (FCF)

Using a 6.0% FCF yield metric, this means that Disney will end up with a $276.7 billion market value:

使用 6.0% FCF 收益率指標，這意味著迪士尼最終的市值將達到 2,767 億美元：

$16.6b / 0.06 = $276.7 billion market cap

$16.6b / 0.06 = $276.7 兆市值

That is 37.5% higher than its present market cap:

這比目前的市值高出 37.5%：

$276.7b projected mkt cap /$201.3 billion mkt cap today = 1.375-1 = +37.5%

$276.7b 預計市場上限 /$2013 億當前市場上限 = 1.375-1 = +37.5%

In other words, using an FCF metric, DIS stock is worth $153.85 per share:

換句話說，使用 FCF 指標，DIS 股票每股價值 153.85 美元：

$111.89 x 1.375 = $153.85 per share

每股 111.89 美元 x 1.375 = 153.85 美元

What's the best way to play this?

玩這個的最好方法是什麼？

Shorting OTM Puts

做空 OTM 賣權

One way to play this is to repeatedly sell short out-of-the-money cash-secured put options in near-term expiry periods. That means selling puts in strike prices below the trading price.

一種方法是在近期到期期間內反覆賣出虛值現金擔保看跌期權。這意味著以低於交易價格的執行價格出售看跌期權。

For example, look at the Jan. 31, 2025, expiry period, which is less than a month away (27 days to expiry or DTE).

例如，查看 2025 年 1 月 31 日的到期日，距離到期日不到一個月（距離到期日或 DTE 27 天）。

It shows that the $108.00 strike price, about 2.8% below today's price, has a put premium of $1.07 on the bid side. That means the short seller can make a 1.0% yield in less than one month: (i.e., $1.07/$108.00 = 0.99%)

它顯示，108.00 美元的執行價格比今天的價格低約 2.8%，而買方的看跌期權溢價為 1.07 美元。這意味著賣空者可以在不到一個月的時間內獲得 1.0% 的收益率：（即 1.07 美元/108.00 美元 = 0.99%）

This means that an investor who secures $10,800 in cash or buying power with their brokerage firm can do this trade. They enter an order to “Sell to Open” 1 put contract at $108.00. That cash acts as collateral in case DIS stock falls to $108 and the account is assigned to buy 100 shares at $108.00.

這意味著透過經紀公司獲得 10,800 美元現金或購買力的投資者可以進行此交易。他們以 108.00 美元的價格「賣出開倉」1 個看跌選擇權合約。如果 DIS 股票跌至 108 美元，並且該帳戶被指定以 108.00 美元購買 100 股，則該現金可作為抵押品。

The account will then immediately receive $107.00. Hence the yield is almost 1.0% (i.e., $107/$10,800 = 0.99%). No matter what happens, the account keeps that income.

該帳戶將立即收到 107.00 美元。因此，收益率幾乎為 1.0%（即 107 美元/10,800 美元 = 0.99%）。無論發生什麼情況，該帳戶都會保留該收入。