迪士尼 (DIS) 股票看起来被低估；一种方法是做空虚值 (OTM) 近期看跌期权，并在长期到期期内做多实值 (ITM) 看涨期权

1 月 3 日星期五，DIS 股价收于 111.16 美元。迪士尼于 11 月 13 日公布第四财季和全年收益后，该股自 11 月 14 日起一直持平，当时股价为 109.12 美元。

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) stock has been trading flat, but it still looks undervalued using several measures, including dividend yield and free cash flow. One way to play this is to short out-of-the-money (OTM) near-term puts and going long in-the-money (ITM) calls in long-dated expiry periods.

华特迪士尼公司（DIS）的股票交易一直持平，但从股息收益率和自由现金流等多项指标来看，它的价值仍然被低估。一种方法是做空近期的虚值 (OTM) 看跌期权，并在长期到期期内做多实值 (ITM) 看涨期权。

DIS stock closed at $111.16 on Friday, Jan. 3. It's been flat since Nov. 14 when it was at $109.12, after Disney released its fiscal Q4 and full-year earnings on Nov. 13.

1 月 3 日星期五，DIS 股价收于 111.16 美元。迪士尼于 11 月 13 日公布第四财季和全年收益后，该股自 11 月 14 日起一直持平，当时股价为 109.12 美元。

That makes it attractive to investors who sell short OTM puts and buy long-dated ITM calls. This article will delve into this more carefully.

这使得它对卖出 OTM 看跌期权空头并买入长期 ITM 看涨期权的投资者具有吸引力。本文将对此进行更仔细的探讨。

DIS Stock Looks Undervalued

DIS 股票看起来被低估

Historical Dividend Yield. I wrote that DIS stock looked undervalued in a Dec. 6, 2024, Barchart article, “Disney's 33% Dividend Hike Implies DIS Stock Could Be 35% Undervalued.”

历史股息收益率。我在 2024 年 12 月 6 日的 Barchart 文章“迪士尼 33% 的股息上涨意味着 DIS 股票可能被低估 35%”中写道，DIS 股票看起来被低估。

I showed that based on its historical dividend yield DIS is worth $138.89 per share, based on its historical dividend yield of 0.72%:

我显示，根据其历史股息收益率 DIS 的价值为每股 138.89 美元（根据其历史股息收益率 0.72%）：

$1.00 dividend per share / 0.0072 = $138.89 target price

每股股息 1.00 美元 / 0.0072 = 目标价 138.89 美元

That is 25% higher than Friday's closing price of $111.89.

这比周五收盘价 111.89 美元高出 25%。

Moreover, given its highest trading price, the stock could be worth as much as $152 per share.

此外，考虑到其最高交易价格，该股票的价值可能高达每股 152 美元。

Free Cash Flow. In addition, using a free cash flow (FCF) analysis, Disney could be worth as much as $164 per share. Here's why.

自由现金流。此外，根据自由现金流 (FCF) 分析，迪士尼每股价值可能高达 164 美元。原因如下。

Analysts forecast that sales this fiscal year (ending Sept. 2025) will reach $94.85 billion. And the following year they estimated $99.97 billion. So, for the next 12 months, the run rate revenue is about $97.4 billion.

分析师预测本财年（截至2025年9月）销售额将达到948.5亿美元。第二年，他们估计价值 999.7 亿美元。因此，未来 12 个月的运行收入约为 974 亿美元。

Since last quarter Disney made a 17.85% FCF margin, let's assume it make at least 17% going forward:

自上季度迪士尼的自由现金流利润率达到 17.85% 以来，我们假设它未来的利润率至少为 17%：

$97.4 billion NTM sales x 0.17 = $16.6 billion in free cash flow (FCF)

974 亿美元的 NTM 销售额 x 0.17 = 166 亿美元的自由现金流 (FCF)

Using a 6.0% FCF yield metric, this means that Disney will end up with a $276.7 billion market value:

使用 6.0% FCF 收益率指标，这意味着迪士尼最终的市值将达到 2,767 亿美元：

$16.6b / 0.06 = $276.7 billion market cap

$16.6b / 0.06 = $276.7 万亿市值

That is 37.5% higher than its present market cap:

这比目前的市值高出 37.5%：

$276.7b projected mkt cap /$201.3 billion mkt cap today = 1.375-1 = +37.5%

$276.7b 预计市场上限 /$2013 亿当前市场上限 = 1.375-1 = +37.5%

In other words, using an FCF metric, DIS stock is worth $153.85 per share:

换句话说，使用 FCF 指标，DIS 股票每股价值 153.85 美元：

$111.89 x 1.375 = $153.85 per share

每股 111.89 美元 x 1.375 = 153.85 美元

What's the best way to play this?

玩这个的最好方法是什么？

Shorting OTM Puts

做空 OTM 看跌期权

One way to play this is to repeatedly sell short out-of-the-money cash-secured put options in near-term expiry periods. That means selling puts in strike prices below the trading price.

一种方法是在近期到期期内反复卖出虚值现金担保看跌期权。这意味着以低于交易价格的执行价格出售看跌期权。

For example, look at the Jan. 31, 2025, expiry period, which is less than a month away (27 days to expiry or DTE).

例如，查看 2025 年 1 月 31 日的到期日，距离到期日还有不到一个月（距到期日或 DTE 27 天）。

It shows that the $108.00 strike price, about 2.8% below today's price, has a put premium of $1.07 on the bid side. That means the short seller can make a 1.0% yield in less than one month: (i.e., $1.07/$108.00 = 0.99%)

它显示，108.00 美元的执行价格比今天的价格低约 2.8%，而买方的看跌期权溢价为 1.07 美元。这意味着卖空者可以在不到一个月的时间内获得 1.0% 的收益率：（即 1.07 美元/108.00 美元 = 0.99%）

This means that an investor who secures $10,800 in cash or buying power with their brokerage firm can do this trade. They enter an order to “Sell to Open” 1 put contract at $108.00. That cash acts as collateral in case DIS stock falls to $108 and the account is assigned to buy 100 shares at $108.00.

这意味着通过经纪公司获得 10,800 美元现金或购买力的投资者可以进行此项交易。他们以 108.00 美元的价格“卖出开仓”1 个看跌期权合约。如果 DIS 股票跌至 108 美元，并且该账户被指定以 108.00 美元购买 100 股，则该现金可作为抵押品。

The account will then immediately receive $107.00. Hence the yield is almost 1.0% (i.e., $107/$10,800 = 0.99%). No matter what happens, the account keeps that income.

该帐户将立即收到 107.00 美元。因此，收益率几乎为 1.0%（即 107 美元/10,800 美元 = 0.99%）。无论发生什么情况，该账户都会保留该收入。