美國債務螺旋式上升與Liz Truss崩盤相呼應，引發市場動盪擔憂

國會預算辦公室主任菲利普·斯瓦格爾警告說，無人關注的美國債務擔憂可能會引發類似於利茲·特拉斯引發的英國動盪的市場混亂。儘管利率上升，但比特幣和黃金等避險資產仍在飆升，可能會在危機情況下定價，因為美國債務與 GDP 的比率預計將超過歷史高點。

U.S. Debt Spiral Raises Market Chaos Concerns, Echoing Liz Truss Debacle

美國債務螺旋式上升引發市場混亂擔憂，與利茲·特拉斯慘敗相呼應

Unattended concerns over the mounting U.S. debt burden have raised the specter of market turbulence akin to that witnessed in the United Kingdom following former Prime Minister Liz Truss's ill-fated economic policies, according to Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

美國國會預算辦公室(CBO)主任菲利普·斯瓦格爾(Phillip Swagel)表示，對美國債務負擔不斷加重的擔憂引發了市場動盪的擔憂，類似於英國前首相利茲·特拉斯(Liz Truss)實施命運多舛的經濟政策後出現的市場動盪。

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Swagel warned that the U.S. faces a similar risk if the government continues to disregard the growing debt problem. "The danger, of course, is what the U.K. faced with former Prime Minister Truss, where policymakers tried to take an action, and then there’s a market reaction to that action," he said.

斯瓦格爾最近在接受《金融時報》採訪時警告說，如果政府繼續無視日益嚴重的債務問題，美國也將面臨類似的風險。 「當然，危險在於英國前首相特拉斯所面臨的情況，政策制定者試圖採取行動，然後市場對此行動做出反應，」他說。

While the U.S. is not yet in the same precarious position, Swagel noted that rising interest rates could escalate the cost of debt servicing to $1 trillion in the next two years, potentially triggering a "snap back" in bond markets.

斯瓦格爾指出，雖然美國尚未處於同樣危險的境地，但利率上升可能會在未來兩年內將償債成本提升至 1 兆美元，這可能會引發債券市場的「反彈」。

Alternative Asset Boost amid Currency Crisis

貨幣危機中另類資產的提振

A pound-like crash in the U.S. dollar, a global reserve currency with a dominant role in international finance, could amplify demand for alternative assets with haven status, such as Bitcoin and gold. Historical data suggests that trading volumes in Bitcoin-pound pairs surged during the U.K. currency crisis in September 2022.

美元（一種在國際金融中佔據主導地位的全球儲備貨幣）如果出現類似英鎊的崩盤，可能會放大對比特幣和黃金等具有避險地位的另類資產的需求。歷史數據顯示，2022 年 9 月英國貨幣危機期間，比特幣-英鎊貨幣對的交易量激增。

Both Bitcoin and gold appear to be already factoring in a potential crisis scenario. Despite elevated interest rates and bond yields globally, these two so-called zero-yielding assets have rallied to new record highs, surpassing $70,000 and $2,000, respectively. This surge has occurred despite the previous peaks they reached in 2020-21, when interest rates in the U.S. and other regions were near or even below zero.

比特幣和黃金似乎都已經考慮到了潛在的危機情況。儘管全球利率和債券殖利率不斷上升，但這兩種所謂的零收益資產已升至歷史新高，分別超過 7 萬美元和 2,000 美元。儘管在 2020-21 年曾達到峰值，當時美國和其他地區的利率接近甚至低於零，但這種飆升還是發生了。

Macro Tailwinds for Bitcoin and Gold

比特幣和黃金的宏觀順風

According to Kaiko, a Paris-based crypto data provider, rising debt levels and geopolitical instability may have counterbalanced the upward pressure on yields, contributing to the remarkable performance of Bitcoin and gold.

總部位於巴黎的加密數據提供商Kaiko表示，債務水平上升和地緣政治不穩定可能抵消了收益率的上行壓力，從而促成​​了比特幣和黃金的出色表現。

Data from the CBO reveals that U.S. federal debt reached $26.2 trillion at the end of 2023, approximating 97% of gross domestic product (GDP). The CBO forecasts that the debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed the 116% peak recorded during World War II by 2029, escalating to as high as 166% by 2054.

美國國會預算辦公室的數據顯示，截至 2023 年底，美國聯邦債務達到 26.2 兆美元，約佔國內生產毛額 (GDP) 的 97%。美國國會預算辦公室預測，到2029年，債務與GDP的比率將超過二戰期間116%的峰值，到2054年將上升至166%。

The larger the debt burden, the more pronounced the pressure to maintain artificially low real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates and bond yields. Elevated rates and debt levels exacerbate the government's interest expenses, further compounding debt concerns.

債務負擔越大，維持人為壓低實際（經通膨調整）利率和債券殖利率的壓力就越明顯。利率和債務水準上升加劇了政府的利息支出，進一步加劇了債務擔憂。

Negative real rates tend to prompt investors to shift funds away from fixed-income investments toward higher-risk, higher-return assets, such as technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and havens like gold, as witnessed in 2020-21.

正如 2020-21 年所見，負實際利率往往會促使投資者將資金從固定收益投資轉向高風險、高回報的資產，例如科技股、加密貨幣和黃金等避險資產。

Fed's Dilemma and Bitcoin's Potential Surge

聯準會的困境和比特幣的潛在飆升

The LondonCryptoClub newsletter founders contend that the debt concerns serve as a macro tailwind for Bitcoin and gold, a view supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent decision to adhere to forecasts of three rate cuts in the coming months despite ongoing labor market strength and renewed inflation. This decision, according to the LondonCryptoClub founders, reflects the central bank's focus on "the U.S. debt spiral."

LondonCryptoClub 通訊創始人認為，債務擔憂是比特幣和黃金的宏觀推動力，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell) 最近決定堅持未來幾個月三次降息的預測，儘管勞動力市場持續走強，通膨再度抬頭，這一觀點得到了支持。 。 LondonCryptoClub 創辦人表示，這項決定反映了央行對「美國債務螺旋」的關注。

"Gold continues to signal that the macro sands are shifting. Should net ETF inflows turn positive this week, don’t be surprised if Bitcoin catches the macro winds and accelerates to new highs," they observed.

他們表示：“黃金繼續表明宏觀情況正在發生變化。如果本週 ETF 淨流入轉為正數，那麼如果比特幣抓住宏觀趨勢並加速創出新高，也不要感到驚訝。”

Indeed, the Nasdaq-listed spot ETFs attracted over $15 million on Monday, reversing a five-day outflow streak. Bitcoin was trading at approximately $70,780 at the time of writing, representing a 5% gain on a 24-hour basis, according to CoinDesk data. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, exhibited a 5.5% increase.

事實上，納斯達克上市的現貨 ETF 週一吸引了超過 1500 萬美元的資金，扭轉了連續五天的資金流出趨勢。根據 CoinDesk 的數據，截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格約為 70,780 美元，24 小時內上漲 5%。根據 CoinDesk 20 指數衡量，更廣泛的加密市場成長了 5.5%。

Conclusion

結論

The U.S. government's mounting debt burden poses a significant risk to the economy and financial markets. If left unattended, this issue could trigger market chaos akin to that experienced in the United Kingdom following former Prime Minister Liz Truss's reckless fiscal policies. The potential for a currency crisis, such as a pound-like crash in the U.S. dollar, could fuel a surge in demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold. Fed policy decisions and market sentiment will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of these assets amidst the evolving macro environment.

美國政府不斷增加的債務負擔給經濟和金融市場帶來了重大風險。如果不加以重視，這個問題可能會引發市場混亂，類似於英國前首相利茲·特拉斯魯莽的財政政策後所經歷的情況。潛在的貨幣危機，例如美元的英鎊暴跌，可能會刺激對比特幣和黃金等替代資產的需求激增。在不斷變化的宏觀環境中，聯準會的政策決定和市場情緒將繼續在塑造這些資產的軌跡方面發揮至關重要的作用。