美国债务螺旋式上升与Liz Truss崩溃相呼应，引发市场动荡担忧

国会预算办公室主任菲利普·斯瓦格尔警告说，无人关注的美国债务担忧可能会引发类似于利兹·特拉斯引发的英国动荡的市场混乱。尽管利率上升，但比特币和黄金等避险资产仍在飙升，可能会在危机情况下定价，因为美国债务与 GDP 的比率预计将超过历史高位。

U.S. Debt Spiral Raises Market Chaos Concerns, Echoing Liz Truss Debacle

美国债务螺旋式上升引发市场混乱担忧，与利兹·特拉斯惨败相呼应

Unattended concerns over the mounting U.S. debt burden have raised the specter of market turbulence akin to that witnessed in the United Kingdom following former Prime Minister Liz Truss's ill-fated economic policies, according to Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

美国国会预算办公室(CBO)主任菲利普·斯瓦格尔(Phillip Swagel)表示，对美国债务负担不断加重的担忧引发了市场动荡的担忧，类似于英国前首相利兹·特拉斯(Liz Truss)实施命运多舛的经济政策后出现的市场动荡。

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Swagel warned that the U.S. faces a similar risk if the government continues to disregard the growing debt problem. "The danger, of course, is what the U.K. faced with former Prime Minister Truss, where policymakers tried to take an action, and then there’s a market reaction to that action," he said.

斯瓦格尔最近在接受英国《金融时报》采访时警告说，如果政府继续无视日益严重的债务问题，美国也将面临类似的风险。 “当然，危险在于英国前首相特拉斯所面临的情况，政策制定者试图采取行动，然后市场对此行动做出反应，”他说。

While the U.S. is not yet in the same precarious position, Swagel noted that rising interest rates could escalate the cost of debt servicing to $1 trillion in the next two years, potentially triggering a "snap back" in bond markets.

斯瓦格尔指出，虽然美国尚未处于同样危险的境地，但利率上升可能会在未来两年内将偿债成本提升至 1 万亿美元，从而可能引发债券市场的“反弹”。

Alternative Asset Boost amid Currency Crisis

货币危机中另类资产的提振

A pound-like crash in the U.S. dollar, a global reserve currency with a dominant role in international finance, could amplify demand for alternative assets with haven status, such as Bitcoin and gold. Historical data suggests that trading volumes in Bitcoin-pound pairs surged during the U.K. currency crisis in September 2022.

美元（一种在国际金融中占据主导地位的全球储备货币）如果出现类似英镑的崩盘，可能会放大对比特币和黄金等具有避险地位的另类资产的需求。历史数据显示，2022 年 9 月英国货币危机期间，比特币-英镑货币对的交易量激增。

Both Bitcoin and gold appear to be already factoring in a potential crisis scenario. Despite elevated interest rates and bond yields globally, these two so-called zero-yielding assets have rallied to new record highs, surpassing $70,000 and $2,000, respectively. This surge has occurred despite the previous peaks they reached in 2020-21, when interest rates in the U.S. and other regions were near or even below zero.

比特币和黄金似乎都已经考虑到了潜在的危机情况。尽管全球利率和债券收益率不断上升，但这两种所谓的零收益资产已升至历史新高，分别超过 70,000 美元和 2,000 美元。尽管在 2020-21 年曾达到峰值，当时美国和其他地区的利率接近甚至低于零，但这种飙升还是发生了。

Macro Tailwinds for Bitcoin and Gold

比特币和黄金的宏观顺风

According to Kaiko, a Paris-based crypto data provider, rising debt levels and geopolitical instability may have counterbalanced the upward pressure on yields, contributing to the remarkable performance of Bitcoin and gold.

总部位于巴黎的加密数据提供商Kaiko表示，债务水平上升和地缘政治不稳定可能抵消了收益率的上行压力，从而促成了比特币和黄金的出色表现。

Data from the CBO reveals that U.S. federal debt reached $26.2 trillion at the end of 2023, approximating 97% of gross domestic product (GDP). The CBO forecasts that the debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed the 116% peak recorded during World War II by 2029, escalating to as high as 166% by 2054.

美国国会预算办公室的数据显示，截至 2023 年底，美国联邦债务达到 26.2 万亿美元，约占国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 97%。美国国会预算办公室预测，到2029年，债务与GDP的比率将超过二战期间116%的峰值，到2054年将升至166%。

The larger the debt burden, the more pronounced the pressure to maintain artificially low real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates and bond yields. Elevated rates and debt levels exacerbate the government's interest expenses, further compounding debt concerns.

债务负担越大，维持人为压低实际（经通胀调整）利率和债券收益率的压力就越明显。利率和债务水平上升加剧了政府的利息支出，进一步加剧了债务担忧。

Negative real rates tend to prompt investors to shift funds away from fixed-income investments toward higher-risk, higher-return assets, such as technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and havens like gold, as witnessed in 2020-21.

正如 2020-21 年所见，负实际利率往往会促使投资者将资金从固定收益投资转向高风险、高回报的资产，例如科技股、加密货币和黄金等避险资产。

Fed's Dilemma and Bitcoin's Potential Surge

美联储的困境和比特币的潜在飙升

The LondonCryptoClub newsletter founders contend that the debt concerns serve as a macro tailwind for Bitcoin and gold, a view supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent decision to adhere to forecasts of three rate cuts in the coming months despite ongoing labor market strength and renewed inflation. This decision, according to the LondonCryptoClub founders, reflects the central bank's focus on "the U.S. debt spiral."

LondonCryptoClub 通讯创始人认为，债务担忧是比特币和黄金的宏观推动力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 最近决定坚持未来几个月三次降息的预测，尽管劳动力市场持续走强，通胀再度抬头，这一观点得到了支持。 。 LondonCryptoClub 创始人表示，这一决定反映了央行对“美国债务螺旋”的关注。

"Gold continues to signal that the macro sands are shifting. Should net ETF inflows turn positive this week, don’t be surprised if Bitcoin catches the macro winds and accelerates to new highs," they observed.

他们表示：“黄金继续表明宏观形势正在发生变化。如果本周 ETF 净流入转为正数，那么如果比特币抓住宏观趋势并加速创出新高，也不要感到惊讶。”

Indeed, the Nasdaq-listed spot ETFs attracted over $15 million on Monday, reversing a five-day outflow streak. Bitcoin was trading at approximately $70,780 at the time of writing, representing a 5% gain on a 24-hour basis, according to CoinDesk data. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, exhibited a 5.5% increase.

事实上，纳斯达克上市的现货 ETF 周一吸引了超过 1500 万美元的资金，扭转了连续五天的资金流出趋势。根据 CoinDesk 的数据，截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 70,780 美元，24 小时内上涨 5%。根据 CoinDesk 20 指数衡量，更广泛的加密市场增长了 5.5%。

Conclusion

结论

The U.S. government's mounting debt burden poses a significant risk to the economy and financial markets. If left unattended, this issue could trigger market chaos akin to that experienced in the United Kingdom following former Prime Minister Liz Truss's reckless fiscal policies. The potential for a currency crisis, such as a pound-like crash in the U.S. dollar, could fuel a surge in demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold. Fed policy decisions and market sentiment will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of these assets amidst the evolving macro environment.

美国政府不断增加的债务负担给经济和金融市场带来了重大风险。如果不加以重视，这个问题可能会引发市场混乱，类似于英国前首相利兹·特拉斯鲁莽的财政政策后所经历的情况。潜在的货币危机，例如美元的英镑暴跌，可能会刺激对比特币和黄金等替代资产的需求激增。在不断变化的宏观环境中，美联储的政策决定和市场情绪将继续在塑造这些资产的轨迹方面发挥至关重要的作用。