比特幣價格高峰將近？專家預測潛在市場見頂但看到看漲影響

加密貨幣專家 Peter Brandt 聲稱，根據他的「指數衰減」理論，比特幣可能已經在這個市場週期中達到頂峰，這表明每個牛市週期的百分比漲幅都會減少。 Brandt 預測價格可能會跌至 30,000 美元中期或 2021 年低點，但認為這對長期價格走勢可能看漲，暗示未來存在巨大的上漲潛力。

Is Bitcoin's Price Rally Over? Expert Predicts Market Peak But Sees Potential Bullish Implications

比特幣價格上漲結束了嗎？專家預測市場見頂但看到潛在的看漲影響

Exponential Decay Thesis Suggests Price Ceiling

指數衰減理論建議價格上限

Cryptocurrency market analyst Peter Brandt has issued a bold claim: Bitcoin's price rally for this market cycle may have reached its zenith. Brandt's conclusion stems from his "exponential decay" thesis, which, ironically, he believes could ultimately benefit the Bitcoin ecosystem.

加密貨幣市場分析師 Peter Brandt 發表了一個大膽的斷言：比特幣在本次市場週期中的價格上漲可能已經達到頂峰。布蘭特的結論源自於他的「指數衰減」論文，諷刺的是，他認為該論文最終可能有利於比特幣生態系統。

Brandt meticulously examined historical data, observing a consistent pattern: Bitcoin's percentage gains have diminished significantly with each successive bull cycle. From 2015 to 2017, Bitcoin surged by an astounding 122 times, but this represented a mere 21.3% of its price appreciation during the previous cycle (2011-2013).

布蘭特仔細研究了歷史數據，並觀察到了一個一致的模式：隨著每個連續的牛市週期，比特幣的百分比漲幅都顯著減少。從2015年到2017年，比特幣飆升了驚人的122倍，但這僅佔上一周期（2011-2013年）其價格漲幅的21.3%。

Similarly, between 2018 and 2021, Bitcoin's 22x increase from its market lows to highs still fell short of the previous cycle's growth rate, accounting for only 18%. Brandt extrapolated from this trend, projecting that the current market cycle would follow suit, with Bitcoin's price gains likely to be around 20% of the previous cycle's magnitude.

同樣，2018年至2021年間，比特幣從市場低點到高點的22倍漲幅仍低於上一個週期的成長率，佔比僅18%。 Brandt 根據這一趨勢進行推斷，預計當前的市場週期也將隨之而來，比特幣的價格漲幅可能約為上一周期幅度的 20% 左右。

Designating $15,473 as the market low for the current cycle, Brandt calculated that a 20% gain would translate to a market high of $72,723. Remarkably, Bitcoin had already surpassed this level, reaching an all-time high of $73,750.

Brandt 將 15,473 美元指定為當前週期的市場低點，併計算出 20% 的漲幅將轉化為市場高點 72,723 美元。值得注意的是，比特幣已經突破了這一水平，達到了 73,750 美元的歷史新高。

Halving Impact and Exponential Decay

影響減半和指數衰減

Brandt acknowledged that Bitcoin has historically experienced substantial price increases following halving events, which most recently occurred in May 2020. However, he emphasized the sobering reality of exponential decay, leading him to assign a 25% probability that Bitcoin has already peaked in this market cycle.

Brandt 承認，歷史上，比特幣在減半事件後經歷大幅價格上漲，最近一次發生在2020 年5 月。中已經見頂的機率為25% 。

Bullish Implications of a Market Pullback

市場回檔的看漲影響

Should Bitcoin indeed have topped out, Brandt anticipates a decline towards the mid-$30,000 range or even its lows of 2021, around $29,000. However, he views this potential correction as a "most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view."

Brandt 預計，如果比特幣確實觸頂，其價格將跌至 30,000 美元左右，甚至是 2021 年的低點，即 29,000 美元左右。然而，他認為這種潛在的調整是「從長期角度來看可能發生的最樂觀的事情」。

Brandt explained that, from a "classical charting point of view," Bitcoin still exhibits the potential for significant upward momentum, even if it does not materialize immediately. He shared an example of Bitcoin potentially rallying above $100,000 in the future, similar to the parabolic ascent exhibited by Gold from August 2020 to March 2024.

布蘭特解釋說，從「經典圖表的角度」來看，比特幣仍然表現出巨大的上漲勢頭的潛力，即使它不會立即實現。他分享了一個比特幣未來可能反彈至 10 萬美元以上的例子，類似於 2020 年 8 月至 2024 年 3 月黃金表現出的拋物線上漲。

Brandt's analysis aligns with his recent prediction that Bitcoin will soon dethrone Gold as the dominant safe-haven asset. The exponential decay thesis, while suggesting a current market peak, also hints at the possibility of future exponential growth in Bitcoin's value.

布蘭特的分析與他最近的預測一致，即比特幣很快就會取代黃金成為主要避險資產。指數衰減理論在暗示當前市場達到頂峰的同時，也暗示了比特幣價值未來指數成長的可能性。