比特币价格峰值临近？专家预测潜在市场见顶但看到看涨影响

加密货币专家 Peter Brandt 声称，根据他的“指数衰减”理论，比特币可能已经在这个市场周期中达到顶峰，这表明每个牛市周期的百分比涨幅都会减少。 Brandt 预测价格可能会跌至 30,000 美元中期或 2021 年低点，但认为这对长期价格走势可能看涨，暗示未来存在巨大的上涨潜力。

Is Bitcoin's Price Rally Over? Expert Predicts Market Peak But Sees Potential Bullish Implications

比特币价格上涨结束了吗？专家预测市场见顶但看到潜在的看涨影响

Exponential Decay Thesis Suggests Price Ceiling

指数衰减理论建议价格上限

Cryptocurrency market analyst Peter Brandt has issued a bold claim: Bitcoin's price rally for this market cycle may have reached its zenith. Brandt's conclusion stems from his "exponential decay" thesis, which, ironically, he believes could ultimately benefit the Bitcoin ecosystem.

加密货币市场分析师 Peter Brandt 发表了一个大胆的断言：比特币在本次市场周期中的价格上涨可能已经达到顶峰。布兰特的结论源于他的“指数衰减”论文，具有讽刺意味的是，他认为该论文最终可能有利于比特币生态系统。

Brandt meticulously examined historical data, observing a consistent pattern: Bitcoin's percentage gains have diminished significantly with each successive bull cycle. From 2015 to 2017, Bitcoin surged by an astounding 122 times, but this represented a mere 21.3% of its price appreciation during the previous cycle (2011-2013).

布兰特仔细研究了历史数据，观察到了一个一致的模式：随着每个连续的牛市周期，比特币的百分比涨幅都显着减少。从2015年到2017年，比特币飙升了惊人的122倍，但这仅占上一周期（2011-2013年）其价格涨幅的21.3%。

Similarly, between 2018 and 2021, Bitcoin's 22x increase from its market lows to highs still fell short of the previous cycle's growth rate, accounting for only 18%. Brandt extrapolated from this trend, projecting that the current market cycle would follow suit, with Bitcoin's price gains likely to be around 20% of the previous cycle's magnitude.

同样，2018年至2021年间，比特币从市场低点到高点的22倍涨幅仍然低于上一个周期的增长率，占比仅为18%。 Brandt 根据这一趋势进行推断，预计当前的市场周期也将随之而来，比特币的价格涨幅可能约为上一周期幅度的 20% 左右。

Designating $15,473 as the market low for the current cycle, Brandt calculated that a 20% gain would translate to a market high of $72,723. Remarkably, Bitcoin had already surpassed this level, reaching an all-time high of $73,750.

Brandt 将 15,473 美元指定为当前周期的市场低点，并计算出 20% 的涨幅将转化为市场高点 72,723 美元。值得注意的是，比特币已经突破了这一水平，达到了 73,750 美元的历史新高。

Halving Impact and Exponential Decay

影响减半和指数衰减

Brandt acknowledged that Bitcoin has historically experienced substantial price increases following halving events, which most recently occurred in May 2020. However, he emphasized the sobering reality of exponential decay, leading him to assign a 25% probability that Bitcoin has already peaked in this market cycle.

Brandt 承认，历史上，比特币在减半事件后经历过大幅价格上涨，最近一次发生在 2020 年 5 月。然而，他强调了指数衰减的严峻现实，这使他认为比特币在本次市场周期中已经见顶的概率为 25% 。

Bullish Implications of a Market Pullback

市场回调的看涨影响

Should Bitcoin indeed have topped out, Brandt anticipates a decline towards the mid-$30,000 range or even its lows of 2021, around $29,000. However, he views this potential correction as a "most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view."

Brandt 预计，如果比特币确实触顶，其价格将跌至 30,000 美元左右，甚至是 2021 年的低点，即 29,000 美元左右。然而，他认为这种潜在的调整是“从长期角度来看可能发生的最乐观的事情”。

Brandt explained that, from a "classical charting point of view," Bitcoin still exhibits the potential for significant upward momentum, even if it does not materialize immediately. He shared an example of Bitcoin potentially rallying above $100,000 in the future, similar to the parabolic ascent exhibited by Gold from August 2020 to March 2024.

布兰特解释说，从“经典图表的角度”来看，比特币仍然表现出巨大的上涨势头的潜力，即使它不会立即实现。他分享了一个比特币未来可能反弹至 10 万美元以上的例子，类似于 2020 年 8 月至 2024 年 3 月黄金表现出的抛物线上涨。

Brandt's analysis aligns with his recent prediction that Bitcoin will soon dethrone Gold as the dominant safe-haven asset. The exponential decay thesis, while suggesting a current market peak, also hints at the possibility of future exponential growth in Bitcoin's value.

布兰特的分析与他最近的预测一致，即比特币将很快取代黄金成为主要避险资产。指数衰减理论在暗示当前市场达到顶峰的同时，也暗示了比特币价值未来指数增长的可能性。