比特幣的新里程碑表明它作為可交易資產和投資組合已獲得更廣泛的接受

目前，安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇（Anthony Scaramucci）的分析最有意義：比特幣的新里程碑表明它作為一種可交易資產和投資組合獲得了更廣泛的接受，既帶來了巨大的收益，也帶來了令人痛苦的下跌（最後一個峰值到-谷值下降約為 76%）。

US politicians and punters alike are joining the crypto party, with Donald Trump appointing pro-crypto officials, eyeing a Bitcoin reserve, and even hawking his own coin. But while Bitcoin’s new milestone shows it’s gained wider acceptance as a tradable asset and portfolio investment, offering both big gains and gut-wrenching draw-downs, the flip-side of having no intrinsic value and a decentralized architecture with a huge energy footprint means that nobody uses Bitcoin to buy groceries.

美國政界人士和投資者都在加入加密貨幣派對，唐納德·川普任命了支持加密貨幣的官員，著眼於建立比特幣儲備，甚至兜售自己的加密貨幣。然而，儘管比特幣的新里程碑表明它作為一種可交易資產和投資組合獲得了更廣泛的接受，既帶來了巨大的收益，也帶來了令人痛苦的損失，但它沒有內在價值，而且去中心化架構具有巨大的能源足跡，這意味著它的另一面是：沒有人使用比特幣購買雜貨。

Only 7% of US consumers hold Bitcoin, and a survey published last month by the UK Financial Conduct Authority found only 16% of people who owned crypto used these tokens for payments. Sceptics focus on the lack of real-world adoption—yet, it’s speculators banking on so-called digital gold who’ve come out richer.

只有 7% 的美國消費者持有比特幣，英國金融行為監理局上個月發布的一項調查發現，只有 16% 擁有加密貨幣的人使用這些代幣進行支付。懷疑論者關注的是現實世界中缺乏採用——然而，寄望所謂數位黃金的投機者卻變得更加富有。

Another point in favour of ‘Hodlers’ is that it represents a bet on the power of the incoming US president—somewhat ironically for a movement originally forged by libertarian cypher-punks. Almost $10 billion has flowed into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since Trump’s win, which makes sense given the likely gains to be had from regulatory forbearance.

支持「Hodlers」的另一個觀點是，它代表著對即將上任的美國總統權力的賭注——對於最初由自由主義密碼朋克發起的運動來說有點諷刺。自川普獲勝以來，已有近 100 億美元流入比特幣交易所交易基金，考慮到監管寬容可能帶來的收益，這是有道理的。

Gary Gensler’s departure from the US Securities and Exchange Commission likely means more breathing space for tokens that have laboured under the “unregistered securities" label, making US-based Coinbase Global an obvious beneficiary of onshore trading flows and products; its shares have doubled this year.

加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler) 離開美國證券交易委員會可能意味著那些在「未註冊證券」標籤下運作的代幣有更多的喘息空間，這使得總部位於美國的Coinbase Global 成為境內交易流和產品的明顯受益者；其股價今年翻了一番。

A friendlier regulatory atmosphere means we should expect more financial institutions to join in, even in risk-averse Europe.

更友善的監管氛圍意味著我們應該期待更多的金融機構加入進來，即使是規避風險的歐洲。

Still, even pro-crypto folks know there are limits to this trade. We’re far from Friedrich Hayek’s vision of the “de-nationalization of money," in which the state would cede monopoly control of currency to the competitive private sector.

儘管如此，即使是支持加密貨幣的人也知道這種交易也有其限制。我們距離弗里德里希·哈耶克（Friedrich Hayek）的「貨幣非國有化」願景還很遙遠，在這種願景中，國家會將貨幣的壟斷控制權讓給競爭性的私營部門。

Trump’s recent call to Brics to accept dollar dominance shows he’s far from a crypto purist. A Bitcoin strategic reserve, with all the risk involved for US taxpayers, seems like a bridge too far.

川普最近呼籲金磚四國接受美元主導地位，這表明他遠非加密貨幣純粹主義者。比特幣戰略儲備對美國納稅人來說涉及所有風險，這似乎是一座太遙遠的橋樑。

And while ‘digital gold’ is a handy moniker that lets optimists imagine another tenfold rise for Bitcoin—taking its market capitalization to $20 trillion, or on par with gold—its price has lately been correlated with tech stocks on the Nasdaq index, suggesting real-world macro conditions must remain healthy to maintain that speculative lustre.

雖然「數位黃金」是一個方便的綽號，讓樂觀者想像比特幣會再上漲十倍——使其市值達到20 兆美元，或與黃金持平——但其價格最近與納斯達克指數中的科技股相關，顯示比特幣的真實價格-世界宏觀環境必須保持健康，才能維持投機熱情。

For now, they are: US monetary policy is loosening and tech stocks like Nvidia and Palantir are rocketing (and have outperformed Bitcoin this year). But if the twin engines of the US economy and stock market sputter—perhaps due to tariffs or inflation—it may undermine Bitcoin.

目前，它們是：美國貨幣政策正在放鬆，Nvidia和Palantir等科技股正在飆升（今年的表現超過了比特幣）。但如果美國經濟和股市的雙引擎出現故障——可能是由於關稅或通貨膨脹——它可能會削弱比特幣。

There are other, longer-term questions posed by this rally. The first is just how dangerous the gamblification of finance could yet be in a world of 24/7 trading apps, legalized sports betting and instant payments—something crypto fans tend to dismiss.

這次反彈也帶來了其他更長期的問題。首先是在一個 24/7 交易應用程式、合法化的體育博彩和即時支付的世界中，金融賭博化可能是多麼危險——而加密貨幣粉絲往往會忽略這一點。

Like two sides of the same coin, crypto rallies expose punters to a proliferation of scams and get-rich-quick schemes. The urge to make money fast and replicate the seemingly out-of-reach gains of the early adopters can lead to horror shows like the Hawk Tuah meme-coin or the baffling rise of Peanut the Squirrel’s token (market cap: $1.2 billion.)

就像同一枚硬幣的兩面一樣，加密貨幣漲勢讓投注者面臨大量詐騙和快速致富計畫。快速賺錢和複製早期採用者看似遙不可及的收益的衝動可能會導致像 Hawk Tuah meme-coin 或 Peanut the Squirrel 代幣令人困惑的上漲（市值：12 億美元）這樣的恐怖表演。

There will need to be re-regulation ahead, and maybe a total rethink of how the lines between investing and gambling are policed.

未來需要重新監管，也許還需要徹底重新思考如何監管投資和賭博之間的界線。

The second is whether there is already a glimpse of a future financial system beyond the speculation. Complex systems take time to emerge—which crypto doubters might also miss.

第二個問題是，除了猜測之外，是否已經看到了未來的金融體系。複雜的系統需要時間才能出現——加密貨幣懷疑者也可能會錯過這一點。

Maybe new experiments, such as First Abu Dhabi Bank and Libre Capital’s announcement this week of a stable-coin lending pilot backed by tokenized money-market funds, are the budding indicators of where this Wild West of digital trading might end up.

也許新的實驗，例如第一阿布達比銀行和 Libre Capital 本周宣布的由代幣化貨幣市場基金支持的穩定幣借貸試點，是數位交易狂野西部可能走向何方的萌芽指標。

The hope is that this carnival is close to maturity. Yet, the history of financial manias, especially those with political encouragement, suggests a few more accidents are on the way.

希望這次狂歡節能接近成熟。然而，金融狂熱的歷史，尤其是那些受到政治鼓勵的金融狂熱，顯示更多的事故即將發生。