比特币的新里程碑表明它作为可交易资产和投资组合已获得更广泛的接受

目前，安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇（Anthony Scaramucci）的分析最有意义：比特币的新里程碑表明，它作为一种可交易资产和投资组合获得了更广泛的接受，既带来了巨大的收益，也带来了令人痛苦的下跌（最后一个峰值到-谷值下降约为 76%）。

US politicians and punters alike are joining the crypto party, with Donald Trump appointing pro-crypto officials, eyeing a Bitcoin reserve, and even hawking his own coin. But while Bitcoin’s new milestone shows it’s gained wider acceptance as a tradable asset and portfolio investment, offering both big gains and gut-wrenching draw-downs, the flip-side of having no intrinsic value and a decentralized architecture with a huge energy footprint means that nobody uses Bitcoin to buy groceries.

美国政界人士和投资者都在加入加密货币派对，唐纳德·特朗普任命了支持加密货币的官员，着眼于建立比特币储备，甚至兜售自己的加密货币。然而，尽管比特币的新里程碑表明它作为一种可交易资产和投资组合获得了更广泛的接受，既带来了巨大的收益，也带来了令人痛苦的损失，但它没有内在价值，而且去中心化架构具有巨大的能源足迹，这意味着它的另一面是：没有人使用比特币购买杂货。

Only 7% of US consumers hold Bitcoin, and a survey published last month by the UK Financial Conduct Authority found only 16% of people who owned crypto used these tokens for payments. Sceptics focus on the lack of real-world adoption—yet, it’s speculators banking on so-called digital gold who’ve come out richer.

只有 7% 的美国消费者持有比特币，英国金融行为监管局上个月发布的一项调查发现，只有 16% 拥有加密货币的人使用这些代币进行支付。怀疑论者关注的是现实世界中缺乏采用——然而，寄希望于所谓数字黄金的投机者却变得更加富有。

Another point in favour of ‘Hodlers’ is that it represents a bet on the power of the incoming US president—somewhat ironically for a movement originally forged by libertarian cypher-punks. Almost $10 billion has flowed into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since Trump’s win, which makes sense given the likely gains to be had from regulatory forbearance.

支持“Hodlers”的另一点是，它代表着对即将上任的美国总统权力的赌注——对于最初由自由主义密码朋克发起的运动来说有点讽刺。自特朗普获胜以来，已有近 100 亿美元流入比特币交易所交易基金，考虑到监管宽容可能带来的收益，这是有道理的。

Gary Gensler’s departure from the US Securities and Exchange Commission likely means more breathing space for tokens that have laboured under the “unregistered securities" label, making US-based Coinbase Global an obvious beneficiary of onshore trading flows and products; its shares have doubled this year.

加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 离开美国证券交易委员会可能意味着那些在“未注册证券”标签下运作的代币有更多的喘息空间，这使得总部位于美国的 Coinbase Global 成为境内交易流和产品的明显受益者；其股价今年翻了一番。

A friendlier regulatory atmosphere means we should expect more financial institutions to join in, even in risk-averse Europe.

更友好的监管氛围意味着我们应该期待更多的金融机构加入进来，即使是在规避风险的欧洲。

Still, even pro-crypto folks know there are limits to this trade. We’re far from Friedrich Hayek’s vision of the “de-nationalization of money," in which the state would cede monopoly control of currency to the competitive private sector.

尽管如此，即使是支持加密货币的人也知道这种交易也存在局限性。我们距离弗里德里希·哈耶克（Friedrich Hayek）的“货币非国有化”愿景还很遥远，在这种愿景中，国家会将货币的垄断控制权让给竞争性的私营部门。

Trump’s recent call to Brics to accept dollar dominance shows he’s far from a crypto purist. A Bitcoin strategic reserve, with all the risk involved for US taxpayers, seems like a bridge too far.

特朗普最近呼吁金砖四国接受美元主导地位，这表明他远非加密货币纯粹主义者。比特币战略储备对于美国纳税人来说涉及所有风险，这似乎是一座太过遥远的桥梁。

And while ‘digital gold’ is a handy moniker that lets optimists imagine another tenfold rise for Bitcoin—taking its market capitalization to $20 trillion, or on par with gold—its price has lately been correlated with tech stocks on the Nasdaq index, suggesting real-world macro conditions must remain healthy to maintain that speculative lustre.

虽然“数字黄金”是一个方便的绰号，让乐观者想象比特币会再上涨十倍——使其市值达到 20 万亿美元，或与黄金持平——但其价格最近与纳斯达克指数中的科技股相关，表明比特币的真实价格-世界宏观环境必须保持健康，才能维持投机热情。

For now, they are: US monetary policy is loosening and tech stocks like Nvidia and Palantir are rocketing (and have outperformed Bitcoin this year). But if the twin engines of the US economy and stock market sputter—perhaps due to tariffs or inflation—it may undermine Bitcoin.

目前，它们是：美国货币政策正在放松，Nvidia和Palantir等科技股正在飙升（今年的表现超过了比特币）。但如果美国经济和股市的双引擎出现故障——可能是由于关税或通货膨胀——它可能会削弱比特币。

There are other, longer-term questions posed by this rally. The first is just how dangerous the gamblification of finance could yet be in a world of 24/7 trading apps, legalized sports betting and instant payments—something crypto fans tend to dismiss.

这次反弹还带来了其他更长期的问题。首先是在一个 24/7 交易应用程序、合法化的体育博彩和即时支付的世界中，金融赌博化可能是多么危险——而加密货币粉丝往往会忽视这些。

Like two sides of the same coin, crypto rallies expose punters to a proliferation of scams and get-rich-quick schemes. The urge to make money fast and replicate the seemingly out-of-reach gains of the early adopters can lead to horror shows like the Hawk Tuah meme-coin or the baffling rise of Peanut the Squirrel’s token (market cap: $1.2 billion.)

就像同一枚硬币的两面一样，加密货币涨势让投注者面临大量诈骗和快速致富计划。快速赚钱和复制早期采用者看似遥不可及的收益的冲动可能会导致像 Hawk Tuah meme-coin 或 Peanut the Squirrel 代币令人困惑的上涨（市值：12 亿美元）这样的恐怖表演。

There will need to be re-regulation ahead, and maybe a total rethink of how the lines between investing and gambling are policed.

未来需要重新监管，也许还需要彻底重新思考如何监管投资和赌博之间的界限。

The second is whether there is already a glimpse of a future financial system beyond the speculation. Complex systems take time to emerge—which crypto doubters might also miss.

第二个问题是，除了猜测之外，是否已经看到了未来的金融体系。复杂的系统需要时间才能出现——加密货币怀疑者也可能会错过这一点。

Maybe new experiments, such as First Abu Dhabi Bank and Libre Capital’s announcement this week of a stable-coin lending pilot backed by tokenized money-market funds, are the budding indicators of where this Wild West of digital trading might end up.

也许新的实验，例如第一阿布扎比银行和 Libre Capital 本周宣布的由代币化货币市场基金支持的稳定币贷款试点，是数字交易狂野西部可能走向何方的萌芽指标。

The hope is that this carnival is close to maturity. Yet, the history of financial manias, especially those with political encouragement, suggests a few more accidents are on the way.

希望这次狂欢节接近成熟。然而，金融狂热的历史，尤其是那些受到政治鼓励的金融狂热，表明更多的事故即将发生。