阿瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 表示，隨著中國銀行系統和房地產行業的通貨再膨脹，比特幣 (BTC) 將飆升

BitMEX 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 發布了一份綜合報告，預測通貨緊縮可能會導致比特幣價格飆升，有可能導致 300% 的飆升。

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes issued a wide-ranging report predicting that the unfolding deflation could propel Bitcoin prices upward, potentially leading to a 300% surge.

BitMEX 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 發布了一份內容廣泛的報告，預測不斷出現的通貨緊縮可能會推動比特幣價格上漲，可能導致 300% 的飆升。

“Bitcoin will soar on a secular basis as China reflates its banking system and property sector,” says Hayes, “As long as fiat money is created, Bitcoin will soar. It doesn’t matter who the ultimate recipient is.”

海耶斯表示：「隨著中國銀行體系和房地產行業的通貨再膨脹，比特幣將長期飆升，只要法定貨幣被創造出來，比特幣就會飆升。最終的接受者是誰並不重要。

China’s property market has been teetering since 2020, following President Xi Jinping’s implementation of the “Three Red Lines” policy. This initiative aimed to curtail excessive borrowing among property developers but inadvertently triggered a liquidity crisis in the real estate sector. As developers struggled, the ripple effects hit the broader economy.

自2020年以來，隨著習近平主席提出「三條紅線」政策，中國房地產市場一直搖搖欲墜。這項舉措旨在遏制房地產開發商過度借貸，但卻無意中引發了房地產行業的流動性危機。隨著開發商陷入困境，連鎖反應衝擊了更廣泛的經濟。

Source: Macrobond

資料來源：Macrobond

The bursting of China’s property bubble led to a slowdown in economic activity. Private firms and households cut back on spending to repair their balance sheets. Traditional monetary policies proved ineffective, prompting Beijing to consider injecting massive liquidity into the economy.

中國房地產泡沫的破滅導致經濟活動放緩。私人企業和家庭削減支出以修復資產負債表。事實證明，傳統貨幣政策無效，促使北京考慮向經濟注入大量流動性。

Bitcoin’s Potential Upside Amid China’s Economic Shift

中國經濟轉型中比特幣的潛在上漲空間

Historically, when major economies resort to quantitative easing (QE), asset prices—including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin—experience significant gains. After the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s QE measures contributed to a bull run in various asset classes.

從歷史上看，當主要經濟體訴諸量化寬鬆（QE）時，資產價格（包括比特幣等加密貨幣）會大幅上漲。 2008年金融危機後，聯準會的量化寬鬆措施推動了各類資產的多頭市場。

China’s potential QE could rival or even surpass the stimulus measures undertaken by the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic, which amounted to over $5 trillion. Such an influx of liquidity could weaken the yuan, leading investors to seek alternative stores of value like Bitcoin.

中國潛在的量化寬鬆可能堪比甚至超過美國在COVID-19大流行期間採取的刺激措施，金額超過5兆美元。這種流動性的湧入可能會削弱人民幣，導致投資者尋求比特幣等替代價值儲存手段。

“Bitcoin will soar on a secular basis as China reflates its banking system and property sector,” says Arthur Hayes, “As long as fiat money is created, Bitcoin will soar. It doesn’t matter who the ultimate recipient is.”

Arthur Hayes 表示：「隨著中國銀行體系和房地產產業的通貨再膨脹，比特幣將長期飆升，只要法定貨幣創造出來，比特幣就會飆升。最終的接受者是誰並不重要。

Moreover, China’s massive yuan printing could have global implications. As capital flows out of China into global markets, the cryptocurrency market could see significant inflows, driving up Bitcoin’s price.

此外，中國大規模印製人民幣可能會產生全球影響。隨著資本從中國流入全球市場，加密貨幣市場可能會出現大量流入，推高比特幣的價格。

The Impact of China’s Property Bubble Burst

中國房地產泡沫破滅的影響

China’s property bubble, the largest in human history, has had far-reaching consequences. The “Three Red Lines” policy set strict borrowing thresholds for property developers. While it aimed to promote financial stability, it led to a sharp decline in property development and sales. The slowdown in the property sector contributed to rising unemployment, particularly among urban youth.

中國的房地產泡沫是人類史上最大的泡沫，產生了深遠的影響。 「三條紅線」政策為房地產開發商設定了嚴格的借貸門檻。雖然其目的是促進金融穩定，但卻導致房地產開發和銷售急劇下降。房地產行業放緩導致失業率上升，特別是城市青年失業率上升。

China’s urban youth unemployment rate reached alarming levels, leading the government to stop publishing the statistics in June 2023. With these challenges, China is considering a monetary and fiscal “bazooka” to stimulate the economy. This includes potential QE measures by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which could involve purchasing government debt with printed money.

中國城鎮青年失業率達到驚人水平，導致政府於2023年6月停止發布統計數據。這包括中國人民銀行（PBOC）可能採取的量化寬鬆措施，其中可能涉及用印鈔購買政府債務。

By injecting liquidity, the government hopes to boost economic activity and restore confidence in the financial system. However, this approach comes with risks, including inflation and currency devaluation.

政府希望透過注入流動性來促進經濟活動並恢復對金融體系的信心。然而，這種方法伴隨著風險，包括通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值。

How China’s QE Could Influence Bitcoin Prices

中國的量化寬鬆如何影響比特幣價格

Quantitative easing tends to increase the supply of fiat currency, leading to inflation and a decrease in the currency‘s purchasing power. Investors often turn to assets like Bitcoin, which are considered hedges against inflation. As China’s QE expands the money supply, Bitcoin could become an attractive alternative for preserving wealth.

量化寬鬆往往會增加法定貨幣的供應，導致通貨膨脹和貨幣購買力下降。投資者經常轉向比特幣等資產，這些資產被認為是對沖通膨的工具。隨著中國的量化寬鬆擴大貨幣供應量，比特幣可能成為保值財富的有吸引力的替代品。

China’s QE could also affect global liquidity. An increase in money supply from a major economy like China could have a bullish effect on cryptocurrencies. The correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin’s price suggests that such economic policies could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market.

中國的量化寬鬆也可能影響全球流動性。中國等主要經濟體的貨幣供給增加可能會對加密貨幣產生看漲影響。全球流動性與比特幣價格之間的相關性表明，此類經濟政策可能會對加密貨幣市場產生重大影響。

Additionally, as the yuan weakens, capital may flow out of China into global assets, including Bitcoin. This influx of capital could drive up Bitcoin’s price, contributing to a potential bull run.

此外，隨著人民幣貶值，資本可能會從中國流出，流入包括比特幣在內的全球資產。這種資本的湧入可能會推高比特幣的價格，從而促成​​潛在的多頭市場。

Arthur Hayes writes that “Chinese people are some of the most resourceful people on this planet. They will not allow their precious yuan savings to sit idle as Beijing encourages asset price inflation. Bitcoin is not a foreign concept to middle and high-income coastal urban dwellers. While the exchanges were barred from offering a visible Bitcoin/CNY trading pair, Bitcoin and crypto still flourishes in China.”

亞瑟‧海斯 (Arthur Hayes) 寫道：「中國人是這個星球上最足智多謀的民族之一。由於北京鼓勵資產價格上漲，他們不會讓寶貴的人民幣儲蓄閒置。對於沿海城市的中高收入居民來說，比特幣並不是一個陌生的概念。儘管交易所被禁止提供可見的比特幣/人民幣交易對，但比特幣和加密貨幣在中國仍然蓬勃發展。

Historically, Bitcoin has outperformed other assets like gold, stocks, and property against currency debasement. While the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increases quantitative easing and bank lending, the impact on the Chinese economy will unfold gradually. Currently, savers lean toward oversold stocks and real estate, but as inflationary policies progress, the demand for Bitcoin as a safe haven will likely surge. This could create substantial price volatility, similar to the 2015 yuan devaluation, which saw Bitcoin’s value quintuple in three months.

從歷史上看，比特幣在貨幣貶值方面的表現優於黃金、股票和房地產等其他資產。隨著中國人民銀行加大量化寬鬆和銀行貸款力度，對中國經濟的影響將逐步顯現。目前，儲戶傾向於超賣的股票和房地產，但隨著通膨政策的進展，對比特幣作為避風港的需求可能會激增。這可能會造成巨大的價格波動，類似於 2015 年人民幣貶值，當時比特幣的價值在三個月內翻了五倍。