阿瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 表示，随着中国银行系统和房地产行业的通货再膨胀，比特币 (BTC) 将飙升

BitMEX 前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 发布了一份综合报告，预测此次通货紧缩可能会导致比特币价格飙升，有可能导致 300% 的飙升。

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes issued a wide-ranging report predicting that the unfolding deflation could propel Bitcoin prices upward, potentially leading to a 300% surge.

BitMEX 前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 发布了一份内容广泛的报告，预测不断出现的通货紧缩可能会推动比特币价格上涨，可能导致 300% 的飙升。

“Bitcoin will soar on a secular basis as China reflates its banking system and property sector,” says Hayes, “As long as fiat money is created, Bitcoin will soar. It doesn’t matter who the ultimate recipient is.”

海耶斯表示：“随着中国银行体系和房地产行业的通货再膨胀，比特币将长期飙升，只要法定货币被创造出来，比特币就会飙升。最终的接受者是谁并不重要。”

China’s property market has been teetering since 2020, following President Xi Jinping’s implementation of the “Three Red Lines” policy. This initiative aimed to curtail excessive borrowing among property developers but inadvertently triggered a liquidity crisis in the real estate sector. As developers struggled, the ripple effects hit the broader economy.

2020年以来，随着习近平主席提出“三条红线”政策，中国房地产市场一直摇摇欲坠。这一举措旨在遏制房地产开发商过度借贷，但却无意中引发了房地产行业的流动性危机。随着开发商陷入困境，连锁反应冲击了更广泛的经济。

Source: Macrobond

资料来源：Macrobond

The bursting of China’s property bubble led to a slowdown in economic activity. Private firms and households cut back on spending to repair their balance sheets. Traditional monetary policies proved ineffective, prompting Beijing to consider injecting massive liquidity into the economy.

中国房地产泡沫的破灭导致经济活动放缓。私营企业和家庭削减支出以修复资产负债表。事实证明，传统货币政策无效，促使北京考虑向经济注入大量流动性。

Bitcoin’s Potential Upside Amid China’s Economic Shift

中国经济转型中比特币的潜在上涨空间

Historically, when major economies resort to quantitative easing (QE), asset prices—including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin—experience significant gains. After the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s QE measures contributed to a bull run in various asset classes.

从历史上看，当主要经济体诉诸量化宽松（QE）时，资产价格（包括比特币等加密货币）会大幅上涨。 2008年金融危机后，美联储的量化宽松措施推动了各类资产的牛市。

China’s potential QE could rival or even surpass the stimulus measures undertaken by the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic, which amounted to over $5 trillion. Such an influx of liquidity could weaken the yuan, leading investors to seek alternative stores of value like Bitcoin.

中国潜在的量化宽松可能堪比甚至超过美国在COVID-19大流行期间采取的刺激措施，金额超过5万亿美元。这种流动性的涌入可能会削弱人民币，导致投资者寻求比特币等替代价值储存手段。

“Bitcoin will soar on a secular basis as China reflates its banking system and property sector,” says Arthur Hayes, “As long as fiat money is created, Bitcoin will soar. It doesn’t matter who the ultimate recipient is.”

Arthur Hayes 表示：“随着中国银行体系和房地产行业的通货再膨胀，比特币将长期飙升，只要法定货币被创造出来，比特币就会飙升。最终的接受者是谁并不重要。”

Moreover, China’s massive yuan printing could have global implications. As capital flows out of China into global markets, the cryptocurrency market could see significant inflows, driving up Bitcoin’s price.

此外，中国大规模印制人民币可能会产生全球影响。随着资本从中国流入全球市场，加密货币市场可能会出现大量流入，从而推高比特币的价格。

The Impact of China’s Property Bubble Burst

中国房地产泡沫破灭的影响

China’s property bubble, the largest in human history, has had far-reaching consequences. The “Three Red Lines” policy set strict borrowing thresholds for property developers. While it aimed to promote financial stability, it led to a sharp decline in property development and sales. The slowdown in the property sector contributed to rising unemployment, particularly among urban youth.

中国的房地产泡沫是人类历史上最大的泡沫，产生了深远的影响。 “三条红线”政策为房地产开发商设定了严格的借贷门槛。虽然其目的是促进金融稳定，但却导致房地产开发和销售急剧下降。房地产行业放缓导致失业率上升，尤其是城市青年失业率上升。

China’s urban youth unemployment rate reached alarming levels, leading the government to stop publishing the statistics in June 2023. With these challenges, China is considering a monetary and fiscal “bazooka” to stimulate the economy. This includes potential QE measures by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which could involve purchasing government debt with printed money.

中国城镇青年失业率达到惊人水平，导致政府于2023年6月停止发布统计数据。面对这些挑战，中国正在考虑使用货币和财政“火箭筒”来刺激经济。这包括中国人民银行（PBOC）可能采取的量化宽松措施，其中可能涉及用印钞购买政府债务。

By injecting liquidity, the government hopes to boost economic activity and restore confidence in the financial system. However, this approach comes with risks, including inflation and currency devaluation.

政府希望通过注入流动性来促进经济活动并恢复对金融体系的信心。然而，这种方法伴随着风险，包括通货膨胀和货币贬值。

How China’s QE Could Influence Bitcoin Prices

中国的量化宽松如何影响比特币价格

Quantitative easing tends to increase the supply of fiat currency, leading to inflation and a decrease in the currency‘s purchasing power. Investors often turn to assets like Bitcoin, which are considered hedges against inflation. As China’s QE expands the money supply, Bitcoin could become an attractive alternative for preserving wealth.

量化宽松往往会增加法定货币的供应，导致通货膨胀和货币购买力下降。投资者经常转向比特币等资产，这些资产被认为是对冲通胀的工具。随着中国的量化宽松扩大货币供应量，比特币可能成为保值财富的有吸引力的替代品。

China’s QE could also affect global liquidity. An increase in money supply from a major economy like China could have a bullish effect on cryptocurrencies. The correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin’s price suggests that such economic policies could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market.

中国的量化宽松也可能影响全球流动性。中国等主要经济体的货币供应量增加可能会对加密货币产生看涨影响。全球流动性与比特币价格之间的相关性表明，此类经济政策可能会对加密货币市场产生重大影响。

Additionally, as the yuan weakens, capital may flow out of China into global assets, including Bitcoin. This influx of capital could drive up Bitcoin’s price, contributing to a potential bull run.

此外，随着人民币贬值，资本可能会从中国流出，流入包括比特币在内的全球资产。这种资本的涌入可能会推高比特币的价格，从而促成潜在的牛市。

Arthur Hayes writes that “Chinese people are some of the most resourceful people on this planet. They will not allow their precious yuan savings to sit idle as Beijing encourages asset price inflation. Bitcoin is not a foreign concept to middle and high-income coastal urban dwellers. While the exchanges were barred from offering a visible Bitcoin/CNY trading pair, Bitcoin and crypto still flourishes in China.”

阿瑟·海斯 (Arthur Hayes) 写道：“中国人是这个星球上最足智多谋的民族之一。由于北京鼓励资产价格上涨，他们不会让宝贵的人民币储蓄闲置。对于沿海城市的中高收入居民来说，比特币并不是一个陌生的概念。尽管交易所被禁止提供可见的比特币/人民币交易对，但比特币和加密货币在中国仍然蓬勃发展。”

Historically, Bitcoin has outperformed other assets like gold, stocks, and property against currency debasement. While the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increases quantitative easing and bank lending, the impact on the Chinese economy will unfold gradually. Currently, savers lean toward oversold stocks and real estate, but as inflationary policies progress, the demand for Bitcoin as a safe haven will likely surge. This could create substantial price volatility, similar to the 2015 yuan devaluation, which saw Bitcoin’s value quintuple in three months.

从历史上看，比特币在货币贬值方面的表现优于黄金、股票和房地产等其他资产。随着中国人民银行加大量化宽松和银行贷款力度，对中国经济的影响将逐步显现。目前，储户倾向于超卖的股票和房地产，但随着通胀政策的进展，对比特币作为避风港的需求可能会激增。这可能会造成巨大的价格波动，类似于 2015 年人民币贬值，当时比特币的价值在三个月内翻了五倍。