隨著億萬富翁投資者轉向比特幣作為對沖通膨的對沖工具，比特幣（BTC）逐漸成為法定貨幣系統的替代品

中本聰創造了比特幣作為法定貨幣系統的替代品，並且它越來越多地接受這個角色。

Satoshi Nakamoto's creation of Bitcoin was intended as an alternative to the fiat money system, a role that is becoming increasingly evident. In what may be the clearest indication of the bitcoin-fiat rivalry, more billionaire investors are turning to bitcoin as a hedge. Wall Street titans Larry Fink (BlackRock), Stanley Druckenmiller (Duquesne Family Office), and Paul Tudor Jones (Tudor Investment Corporation) have recently expressed skepticism over U.S. monetary policy while acknowledging bitcoin as a modern-day substitute for gold, with real potential to shield their portfolios against inflation.

中本聰創建比特幣的目的是作為法定貨幣系統的替代品，這一作用正變得越來越明顯。越來越多的億萬富翁投資者開始轉向比特幣作為對沖工具，這可能是比特幣與法定貨幣競爭的最明顯跡象。華爾街巨頭拉里·芬克（貝萊德）、斯坦利·德魯肯米勒（杜肯家族辦公室）和保羅·都鐸·瓊斯（都鐸投資公司）最近對美國貨幣政策表示懷疑，同時承認比特幣是現代黃金的替代品，具有真正的潛力。

Yes, inflation expectations persist despite official reports of a 2.4% inflation rate in September. These legendary investors warn that government inflationary policies and the escalating national debt may prolong inflation beyond current forecasts. This would make bitcoin, with its finite supply and decentralized nature, an attractive diversification asset.

是的，儘管官方報告 9 月通膨率為 2.4%，但通膨預期依然存在。這些傳奇投資者警告說，政府的通膨政策和不斷升級的國債可能會使通膨持續時間超出當前預測。這將使比特幣以其有限的供應和去中心化的性質成為一種有吸引力的多元化資產。

Short bonds

做空債券

Speaking last week at Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative, Larry Fink reaffirmed his expectations for lasting inflation. BlackRock's CEO believes that "we have greater embedded inflation in the world than we’ve ever seen" due to the governmental inflationary policies. He added that we’re not going to see interest rates as low as forecasted, predicting only a modest 0.25% rate cut this year. Such an environment is not the best for investing in government bonds. Inflation will erode real returns, and with no sizable rate cuts, current higher-yield bonds won't appreciate enough to outpace inflation.

拉里·芬克上週在沙烏地阿拉伯未來投資倡議上發表講話，重申了他對持續通膨的預期。貝萊德執行長認為，由於政府的通膨政策，「世界上的內在通膨比以往任何時候都嚴重」。他補充說，我們不會看到利率像預期那樣低，預計今年只會小幅降息 0.25%。這樣的環境並不適合投資政府公債。通貨膨脹將侵蝕實際回報，如果不大幅降息，目前的高收益債券的升值幅度將不足以超過通貨膨脹。

Stanley Druckenmiller takes an even more skeptical stance, openly betting against the Fed. "We shorted bonds the day the Fed cut 50 [basis points] because we thought it was a mistake," he said in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this month. The veteran investor is known for achieving an average annual return of 30% over three decades at Duquesne Capital. He now notes that while the Fed is pushing a restrictive narrative, the market is signaling otherwise. “Equities at a record high, gold at a record high, GDP above trend, credit tight, bank earnings and forecasts look good... crypto going crazy. We don’t see any restrictions whatsoever.”

史丹利·德魯肯米勒採取了更懷疑的立場，公開做空聯準會。 「我們在聯準會降息 50 個基點的那天做空了債券，因為我們認為這是一個錯誤，」他在本月稍早接受彭博社採訪時表示。這位經驗豐富的投資者因在杜肯資本三十年間實現了 30% 的平均年回報率而聞名。他現在指出，儘管聯準會正在推行限制性說法，但市場卻發出了相反的訊號。 「股市創歷史新高，黃金創歷史新高，GDP高於趨勢，信貸緊縮，銀行獲利和預測看起來不錯…加密貨幣正在瘋狂。我們沒有看到任何限制。

Paul Tudor Jones tackled another persistent U.S. problem: the enormous $35 trillion national debt that seems to spiral out of control. The billionaire hedge fund manager told CNBC that inflation risks loom after November's election, as both Harris and Trump pledged to increase spending and cut taxes, worsening the debt outlook. Jones believes the only viable path forward is to inflate and grow out of the debt burden. This means maintaining low interest rates and allowing inflation to rise, "inflating away" the real value of debt. This would ease the debt burden while avoiding immediate austerity measures, notoriously difficult for any politician to implement.

保羅都鐸瓊斯 (Paul Tudor Jones) 解決了美國另一個長期存在的問題：35 兆美元的巨額國債似乎正在失控。這位億萬富翁對沖基金經理告訴 CNBC，11 月大選後通膨風險迫在眉睫，因為哈里斯和川普都承諾增加支出和減稅，導致債務前景惡化。瓊斯認為唯一可行的前進道路是透過通貨膨脹和成長擺脫債務負擔。這意味著維持低利率並允許通貨膨脹上升，「通貨膨脹」了債務的實際價值。這將減輕債務負擔，同時避免立即採取緊縮​​措施，眾所周知，這對任何政治人物來說都很難實施。

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads By 2 Points In New Survey—As Polls Tighten Before Election

川普對決。哈里斯 2024 年民調：哈里斯在新調查中領先 2 個百分點——選舉前民調趨緊

Harris And Trump’s Biggest Celebrity Endorsements—Arnold Schwarzenegger Breaks With Republicans To Endorse Harris

哈里斯和川普最大的名人代言——阿諾德·史瓦辛格與共和黨決裂，支持哈里斯

Samsung’s Impossible Deadline—You Have 24 Hours To Update Your Phone

三星不可能的最後期限——你有 24 小時更新你的手機

From this perspective, betting against bonds looks like a wise move indeed. However, does it mean that bitcoin can truly fulfill its role as an inflation hedge?

從這個角度來看，做空債券看起來確實是個明智之舉。然而，這是否意味著比特幣能夠真正發揮其通膨對沖作用？

Can bitcoin be a safe haven asset?

比特幣可以成為避險資產嗎？

The “digital gold” narrative is among bitcoin's most famous ones. Yet, it is often challenged by people arguing that such a volatile asset cannot fulfill a safe haven role. In the past, this argument used to stand. Bitcoin volatility fluctuated between 50% and 140% in 2017-2020, but has since been on a steady downward trend. Since 2023, it has been ranging from 23% to 65%, making it comparable to equities and even gold. For context, the VIX (S&P 500 volatility index) has been 16-33% in recent years. The GVZ (CBOE gold volatility index) was 10-30%. As bitcoin adoption and its market cap grow, analysts expect the coin to experience fewer dramatic price swings.

「數位黃金」的說法是比特幣最著名的說法之一。然而，它經常受到人們的質疑，認為這種波動性較大的資產無法發揮避險作用。過去，這種說法是站得住腳的。 2017-2020年，比特幣波動率在50%至140%之間波動，但此後一直呈現穩定下降趨勢。自2023年以來，其漲幅一直在23%至65%之間，使其可與股票甚至黃金相媲美。就背景而言，VIX（標準普爾 500 指數波動性指數）近年來一直在 16-33% 之間。 GVZ（CBOE 黃金波動率指數）為 10-30%。隨著比特幣的採用及其市值的增長，分析師預計貨幣的價格波動將減少。

Bitcoin volatility from 2017 to 2024 compiled by The Block

The Block 編製的 2017 年至 2024 年比特幣波動率

Skeptics also argue that bitcoin’s performance in past crises casts doubt on its reliability as a safe haven. At the peak of U.S. inflation in May-June 2022, when the Fed began raising rates aggressively, BTC dropped 55%. At the same time, risk-on equities of the S&P 500 fell by 15%, and the risk-off gold fell only by 6%. Market stress usually determines whether an asset is risk-on or risk-off. From this view, bitcoin has failed the test.

懷疑論者也認為，比特幣在過去危機中的表現讓人對其作為避風港的可靠性產生懷疑。在 2022 年 5 月至 6 月美國通膨達到頂峰時，聯準會開始大幅升息，BTC 下跌了 55%。同時，標普 500 指數的風險股票下跌 15%，而避險黃金僅下跌 6%。市場壓力通常決定資產是風險偏好還是風險規避。從這個角度來看，比特幣沒有通過考驗。

However, it’s important to consider factors unique to the crypto market. In May 2022, the algorithmic Terra collapsed dramatically

然而，重要的是要考慮加密市場的獨特因素。 2022 年 5 月，演算法 Terra 急劇崩潰