随着亿万富翁投资者转向比特币作为对冲通胀的对冲工具，比特币（BTC）逐渐成为法定货币系统的替代品

中本聪创造了比特币作为法定货币系统的替代品，并且它越来越多地接受这一角色。

Satoshi Nakamoto's creation of Bitcoin was intended as an alternative to the fiat money system, a role that is becoming increasingly evident. In what may be the clearest indication of the bitcoin-fiat rivalry, more billionaire investors are turning to bitcoin as a hedge. Wall Street titans Larry Fink (BlackRock), Stanley Druckenmiller (Duquesne Family Office), and Paul Tudor Jones (Tudor Investment Corporation) have recently expressed skepticism over U.S. monetary policy while acknowledging bitcoin as a modern-day substitute for gold, with real potential to shield their portfolios against inflation.

中本聪创建比特币的目的是作为法定货币系统的替代品，这一作用正变得越来越明显。越来越多的亿万富翁投资者开始转向比特币作为对冲工具，这可能是比特币与法定货币竞争的最明显迹象。华尔街巨头拉里·芬克（贝莱德）、斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（杜肯家族办公室）和保罗·都铎·琼斯（都铎投资公司）最近对美国货币政策表示怀疑，同时承认比特币是现代黄金的替代品，具有真正的潜力。保护他们的投资组合免受通货膨胀的影响。

Yes, inflation expectations persist despite official reports of a 2.4% inflation rate in September. These legendary investors warn that government inflationary policies and the escalating national debt may prolong inflation beyond current forecasts. This would make bitcoin, with its finite supply and decentralized nature, an attractive diversification asset.

是的，尽管官方报告 9 月份通胀率为 2.4%，但通胀预期依然存在。这些传奇投资者警告说，政府的通胀政策和不断升级的国债可能会使通胀持续时间超出当前预测。这将使比特币以其有限的供应和去中心化的性质成为一种有吸引力的多元化资产。

Short bonds

做空债券

Speaking last week at Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative, Larry Fink reaffirmed his expectations for lasting inflation. BlackRock's CEO believes that "we have greater embedded inflation in the world than we’ve ever seen" due to the governmental inflationary policies. He added that we’re not going to see interest rates as low as forecasted, predicting only a modest 0.25% rate cut this year. Such an environment is not the best for investing in government bonds. Inflation will erode real returns, and with no sizable rate cuts, current higher-yield bonds won't appreciate enough to outpace inflation.

拉里·芬克上周在沙特阿拉伯未来投资倡议上发表讲话，重申了他对持续通胀的预期。贝莱德首席执行官认为，由于政府的通胀政策，“世界上的内在通胀比以往任何时候都严重”。他补充说，我们不会看到利率像预期那样低，预计今年只会小幅降息 0.25%。这样的环境并不适合投资政府债券。通货膨胀将侵蚀实际回报，并且如果不大幅降息，当前的高收益债券的升值幅度将不足以超过通货膨胀。

Stanley Druckenmiller takes an even more skeptical stance, openly betting against the Fed. "We shorted bonds the day the Fed cut 50 [basis points] because we thought it was a mistake," he said in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this month. The veteran investor is known for achieving an average annual return of 30% over three decades at Duquesne Capital. He now notes that while the Fed is pushing a restrictive narrative, the market is signaling otherwise. “Equities at a record high, gold at a record high, GDP above trend, credit tight, bank earnings and forecasts look good... crypto going crazy. We don’t see any restrictions whatsoever.”

斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒采取了更加怀疑的立场，公开做空美联储。 “我们在美联储降息 50 个基点的那天做空了债券，因为我们认为这是一个错误，”他在本月早些时候接受彭博社采访时表示。这位经验丰富的投资者因在杜肯资本三十年间实现了 30% 的平均年回报率而闻名。他现在指出，尽管美联储正在推行限制性说法，但市场却发出了相反的信号。 “股市创历史新高，黄金创历史新高，GDP高于趋势，信贷紧缩，银行盈利和预测看起来不错……加密货币正在疯狂。我们没有看到任何限制。”

Paul Tudor Jones tackled another persistent U.S. problem: the enormous $35 trillion national debt that seems to spiral out of control. The billionaire hedge fund manager told CNBC that inflation risks loom after November's election, as both Harris and Trump pledged to increase spending and cut taxes, worsening the debt outlook. Jones believes the only viable path forward is to inflate and grow out of the debt burden. This means maintaining low interest rates and allowing inflation to rise, "inflating away" the real value of debt. This would ease the debt burden while avoiding immediate austerity measures, notoriously difficult for any politician to implement.

保罗·都铎·琼斯 (Paul Tudor Jones) 解决了美国另一个长期存在的问题：35 万亿美元的巨额国债似乎正在失控。这位亿万富翁对冲基金经理告诉 CNBC，11 月大选后通胀风险迫在眉睫，因为哈里斯和特朗普都承诺增加支出和减税，导致债务前景恶化。琼斯认为唯一可行的前进道路是通过通货膨胀和增长摆脱债务负担。这意味着维持低利率并允许通货膨胀上升，“通货膨胀”了债务的实际价值。这将减轻债务负担，同时避免立即采取紧缩措施，而众所周知，这对任何政治家来说都很难实施。

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特朗普对决。哈里斯 2024 年民意调查：哈里斯在新调查中领先 2 个百分点——选举前民意调查趋紧

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哈里斯和特朗普最大的名人代言——阿诺德·施瓦辛格与共和党决裂，支持哈里斯

Samsung’s Impossible Deadline—You Have 24 Hours To Update Your Phone

三星不可能的最后期限——你有 24 小时更新你的手机

From this perspective, betting against bonds looks like a wise move indeed. However, does it mean that bitcoin can truly fulfill its role as an inflation hedge?

从这个角度来看，做空债券看起来确实是明智之举。然而，这是否意味着比特币能够真正发挥其通胀对冲作用呢？

Can bitcoin be a safe haven asset?

比特币可以成为避险资产吗？

The “digital gold” narrative is among bitcoin's most famous ones. Yet, it is often challenged by people arguing that such a volatile asset cannot fulfill a safe haven role. In the past, this argument used to stand. Bitcoin volatility fluctuated between 50% and 140% in 2017-2020, but has since been on a steady downward trend. Since 2023, it has been ranging from 23% to 65%, making it comparable to equities and even gold. For context, the VIX (S&P 500 volatility index) has been 16-33% in recent years. The GVZ (CBOE gold volatility index) was 10-30%. As bitcoin adoption and its market cap grow, analysts expect the coin to experience fewer dramatic price swings.

“数字黄金”的说法是比特币最著名的说法之一。然而，它经常受到人们的质疑，认为这种波动性较大的资产无法发挥避险作用。过去，这种说法是站得住脚的。 2017-2020年，比特币波动率在50%至140%之间波动，但此后一直呈稳步下降趋势。自2023年以来，其涨幅一直在23%至65%之间，使其可与股票甚至黄金相媲美。就背景而言，VIX（标准普尔 500 指数波动率指数）近年来一直在 16-33% 之间。 GVZ（CBOE 黄金波动率指数）为 10-30%。随着比特币的采用及其市值的增长，分析师预计该货币的价格波动将减少。

Bitcoin volatility from 2017 to 2024 compiled by The Block

The Block 编制的 2017 年至 2024 年比特币波动率

Skeptics also argue that bitcoin’s performance in past crises casts doubt on its reliability as a safe haven. At the peak of U.S. inflation in May-June 2022, when the Fed began raising rates aggressively, BTC dropped 55%. At the same time, risk-on equities of the S&P 500 fell by 15%, and the risk-off gold fell only by 6%. Market stress usually determines whether an asset is risk-on or risk-off. From this view, bitcoin has failed the test.

怀疑论者还认为，比特币在过去危机中的表现让人对其作为避风港的可靠性产生怀疑。在 2022 年 5 月至 6 月美国通胀达到顶峰时，美联储开始大幅加息，BTC 下跌了 55%。与此同时，标准普尔 500 指数的风险股票下跌 15%，而避险黄金仅下跌 6%。市场压力通常决定资产是风险偏好还是风险规避。从这个角度来看，比特币没有通过考验。

However, it’s important to consider factors unique to the crypto market. In May 2022, the algorithmic Terra collapsed dramatically

然而，重要的是要考虑加密市场的独特因素。 2022 年 5 月，算法 Terra 急剧崩溃