如果川普終止所得稅，比特幣可能會蓬勃發展

總統候選人唐納德·川普提出“最終減稅”——完全取消所得稅，震驚了互聯網。

Presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed eliminating income tax entirely, a move that would send shockwaves through every layer of the global economy.

總統候選人唐納德·川普提議完全取消所得稅，此舉將為全球經濟的各個層面帶來衝擊。

Economists and opinion makers took to the internet to share their reactions to Trump's proposal, which he floated during a recent speech in New Hampshire.

經濟學家和輿論製造者在網路上分享了他們對川普最近在新罕布夏州一次演講中提出的提議的反應。

Such a drastic change would have both positive and negative effects on the U.S. economy. Here's a breakdown of what could happen if income tax were to be eliminated.

如此巨大的變化將對美國經濟產生正面和負面的影響。以下是如果取消所得稅可能發生的情況的詳細分析。

Immediate Impact: A Surge In Prices

直接影響：價格飆升

To begin, replacing the income tax with tariffs would immediately increase the cost of imported goods across the board. Consumers would face higher prices on everything from electronics to clothing, applying inflationary pressure throughout the economy.

首先，用關稅取代所得稅將立即全面增加進口商品的成本。消費者將面臨從電子產品到服裝等各種商品的價格上漲，從而對整個經濟造成通膨壓力。

Tariffs are, in essence, taxes on consumption of foreign goods. With U.S. consumers heavily dependent on imports, from raw materials to finished goods, the price hikes would be substantial.

關稅本質上是對外國商品的消費徵稅。由於美國消費者嚴重依賴進口，從原材料到製成品，價格上漲將是巨大的。

Over time, the rate of inflation would slow as capital investment in American supply chains and manufacturing is re-established. However, that could take a long time, and it’s hard to predict just how intense price inflation could become in the meantime.

隨著時間的推移，隨著對美國供應鏈和製造業的資本投資重新建立，通貨膨脹率將會放緩。然而，這可能需要很長時間，而且很難預測在此期間價格通膨會變得多麼嚴重。

On the other hand, if individual income tax were to be eliminated at the same time, Americans would keep substantially more of their earnings, and would have much more money available to pay much higher prices.

另一方面，如果同時取消個人所得稅，美國人將保留更多的收入，並且將有更多的錢來支付更高的價格。

The central question here is which of these effects – the rise in prices or the rise in income – would dominate people’s perceptions of the economy and of their personal financial wellbeing.

這裡的核心問題是，這些影響中的哪一個——價格上漲還是收入增加——將主導人們對經濟和個人財務狀況的看法。

Bitcoin's Role In Shifting Time Preference

比特幣在改變時間偏好上的作用

Bitcoin provides a critical lens through which to examine this potential shift – especially with its concept of time preference.

比特幣提供了一個關鍵的鏡頭來檢驗這種潛在的轉變——尤其是它的時間偏好概念。

Time preference refers to an individual’s tendency to prefer immediate consumption over future rewards (high time preference) versus the preference to delay gratification in order to enjoy greater rewards in the future (low time preference).

時間偏好是指個體傾向於立即消費而不是未來的獎勵（高時間偏好），而不是延遲滿足以在未來享受更大的獎勵（低時間偏好）。

This concept is embedded in the logic of bitcoin’s software. As it is a naturally deflationary currency, the purchasing power of a bitcoin tends to rise over long time periods. Each time you face a choice of whether or not to spend money on consumption today, your alternative is to save that money in bitcoin, with the payoff of consuming 10x or 100x or even more on some day far in the future.

這個概念嵌入到比特幣軟體的邏輯中。由於它是一種自然通貨緊縮的貨幣，比特幣的購買力往往會在很長一段時間內上升。每當你今天面臨是否要花錢消費的選擇時，你的選擇就是把錢存入比特幣，在未來的某一天消費 10 倍或 100 倍甚至更多的回報。

If Americans suddenly find themselves with more disposable income, but also face higher prices for goods, they might start thinking more carefully about their consumption choices. For those with a lower time preference, the natural response might be to defer unnecessary purchases and instead focus on saving or investing. In a world of inflated goods prices, more prudent individuals may start to seek alternative stores of value to protect their wealth. This is where bitcoin could find a new sizable cohort of adopters.

如果美國人突然發現自己有了更多的可支配收入，但也面臨更高的商品價格，他們可能會開始更仔細地考慮自己的消費選擇。對於那些時間偏好較低的人來說，自然的反應可能是推遲不必要的購買，轉而專注於儲蓄或投資。在商品價格上漲的世界中，更謹慎的個人可能會開始尋找替代的價值儲存手段來保護自己的財富。這就是比特幣可以找到大量新的採用者的地方。

Could Bitcoin Experience a Short-Term Boom?

比特幣會經歷短期繁榮嗎？

If Americans suddenly find themselves flush with extra cash due to the elimination of income taxes, they might experience a short-term surge in speculative investment. This could mirror the crypto bull run seen during the COVID-19 stimulus period, when stimulus checks fueled a wave of retail investment in everything from Gamestop (GME), bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies.

如果美國人突然發現自己因取消所得稅而擁有大量額外現金，他們可能會經歷投機性投資的短期激增。這可能反映了 COVID-19 刺激期間出現的加密貨幣牛市，當時刺激支票推動了對 Gamestop (GME)、比特幣和其他加密貨幣等各種貨幣的散戶投資浪潮。

Bitcoin is much more accessible to consumers today than just a few short years ago with the advent of bitcoin spot ETFs and slicker user experiences. At the same time, the struggles of Ethereum since its migration to Proof of Stake, along with the failure of the NFT fad, means that bitcoin may be more easily distinguished from the noise of speculative bubbles in the minds of retail investors.

隨著比特幣現貨 ETF 的出現和更流暢的用戶體驗，如今的消費者比幾年前更容易獲得比特幣。同時，以太坊自遷移到權益證明以來的掙扎，以及 NFT 熱潮的失敗，意味著比特幣可能更容易與散戶投資者心中的投機泡沫噪音區分開來。

Elimination of income tax could lead to a glut of disposable income, which in turn could trigger a flurry of bitcoin demand that would drive up the price in the short term. However, as tariffs drive up consumer prices, people might liquidate some of their bitcoin holdings to cover rising costs of living. This could result in a sharp sell-off, or even an extended price correction, as we saw after the stimulus-driven bitcoin rally of 2020-2021.

取消所得稅可能會導致可支配所得過剩，進而引發比特幣需求激增，在短期內推高價格。然而，隨著關稅推高消費價格，人們可能會清算部分比特幣持有量以支付不斷上漲的生活成本。正如我們在 2020 年至 2021 年刺激驅動的比特幣反彈之後所看到的那樣，這可能會導致大幅拋售，甚至是長期的價格調整。

Over the longer term, swapping income tax for tariffs would entirely remake the U.S. economy, with both positive and negative effects. If domestic manufacturers become more competitive as imported goods get more expensive, we could see a resurgence in American industry. This "reshoring" of production, where companies move their manufacturing operations back to the U.S. to avoid tariffs, could increase domestic job creation and spur overall economic growth.

從長遠來看，以關稅取代所得稅將徹底重塑美國經濟，既有正面的影響，也有負面的影響。如果隨著進口商品變得更加昂貴，國內製造商變得更具競爭力，我們可能會看到美國工業的復甦。這種生產“回流”，即企業將製造業務遷回美國以避免關稅，可能會增加國內就業機會並刺激整體經濟成長。

As labor participation increases and domestic production ramps up, Americans might experience a greater sense of economic stability. With more consistent income streams and growing confidence in the future, people may begin to lower their time preference and invest in long-term stores of value – bitcoin included. Economic growth, combined with the realization that fiat currencies will always lose purchasing power over time, could lead to a long-term structural increase in demand for bitcoin.

隨著勞動參與率的提高和國內生產的增加，美國人可能會感受到更大的經濟穩定感。隨著收入來源更加穩定以及對未來的信心不斷增強，人們可能會開始降低時間偏好並投資長期價值儲存——包括比特幣。經濟成長，再加上法定貨幣總是會隨著時間的推移而失去購買力的認識，可能會導致比特幣需求的長期結構性成長。

Bitcoin's Role After Eliminating Income Tax

取消所得稅後比特幣的作用

Income tax is deeply embedded in the fabric of American financial life, shaping everything

所得稅深植於美國金融生活的結構中，影響著一切