如果特朗普终止所得税，比特币可能会蓬勃发展

总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普提出“最终减税”——完全取消所得税，震惊了互联网。

Presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed eliminating income tax entirely, a move that would send shockwaves through every layer of the global economy.

总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普提议完全取消所得税，此举将给全球经济的各个层面带来冲击。

Economists and opinion makers took to the internet to share their reactions to Trump's proposal, which he floated during a recent speech in New Hampshire.

经济学家和舆论制造者在互联网上分享了他们对特朗普最近在新罕布什尔州一次演讲中提出的提议的反应。

Such a drastic change would have both positive and negative effects on the U.S. economy. Here's a breakdown of what could happen if income tax were to be eliminated.

如此巨大的变化将对美国经济产生积极和消极的影响。以下是如果取消所得税可能发生的情况的详细分析。

Immediate Impact: A Surge In Prices

直接影响：价格飙升

To begin, replacing the income tax with tariffs would immediately increase the cost of imported goods across the board. Consumers would face higher prices on everything from electronics to clothing, applying inflationary pressure throughout the economy.

首先，用关税取代所得税将立即全面增加进口商品的成本。消费者将面临从电子产品到服装等各种商品的价格上涨，从而给整个经济带来通胀压力。

Tariffs are, in essence, taxes on consumption of foreign goods. With U.S. consumers heavily dependent on imports, from raw materials to finished goods, the price hikes would be substantial.

关税本质上是对外国商品的消费征税。由于美国消费者严重依赖进口，从原材料到制成品，价格上涨将是巨大的。

Over time, the rate of inflation would slow as capital investment in American supply chains and manufacturing is re-established. However, that could take a long time, and it’s hard to predict just how intense price inflation could become in the meantime.

随着时间的推移，随着对美国供应链和制造业的资本投资重新建立，通货膨胀率将会放缓。然而，这可能需要很长时间，而且很难预测在此期间价格通胀会变得多么严重。

On the other hand, if individual income tax were to be eliminated at the same time, Americans would keep substantially more of their earnings, and would have much more money available to pay much higher prices.

另一方面，如果同时取消个人所得税，美国人将保留更多的收入，并且将有更多的钱来支付更高的价格。

The central question here is which of these effects – the rise in prices or the rise in income – would dominate people’s perceptions of the economy and of their personal financial wellbeing.

这里的核心问题是，这些影响中的哪一个——价格上涨还是收入增加——将主导人们对经济和个人财务状况的看法。

Bitcoin's Role In Shifting Time Preference

比特币在改变时间偏好方面的作用

Bitcoin provides a critical lens through which to examine this potential shift – especially with its concept of time preference.

比特币提供了一个关键的镜头来检验这种潜在的转变——尤其是它的时间偏好概念。

Time preference refers to an individual’s tendency to prefer immediate consumption over future rewards (high time preference) versus the preference to delay gratification in order to enjoy greater rewards in the future (low time preference).

时间偏好是指个体倾向于立即消费而不是未来的奖励（高时间偏好），而不是延迟满足以在未来享受更大的奖励（低时间偏好）。

This concept is embedded in the logic of bitcoin’s software. As it is a naturally deflationary currency, the purchasing power of a bitcoin tends to rise over long time periods. Each time you face a choice of whether or not to spend money on consumption today, your alternative is to save that money in bitcoin, with the payoff of consuming 10x or 100x or even more on some day far in the future.

这个概念嵌入到比特币软件的逻辑中。由于它是一种自然通货紧缩的货币，比特币的购买力往往会在很长一段时间内上升。每当你今天面临是否花钱消费的选择时，你的选择就是把钱存入比特币，在未来的某一天消费 10 倍或 100 倍甚至更多的回报。

If Americans suddenly find themselves with more disposable income, but also face higher prices for goods, they might start thinking more carefully about their consumption choices. For those with a lower time preference, the natural response might be to defer unnecessary purchases and instead focus on saving or investing. In a world of inflated goods prices, more prudent individuals may start to seek alternative stores of value to protect their wealth. This is where bitcoin could find a new sizable cohort of adopters.

如果美国人突然发现自己有了更多的可支配收入，但也面临着更高的商品价格，他们可能会开始更仔细地考虑自己的消费选择。对于那些时间偏好较低的人来说，自然的反应可能是推迟不必要的购买，转而专注于储蓄或投资。在商品价格上涨的世界中，更加谨慎的个人可能会开始寻找替代的价值储存手段来保护自己的财富。这就是比特币可以找到大量新的采用者的地方。

Could Bitcoin Experience a Short-Term Boom?

比特币会经历短期繁荣吗？

If Americans suddenly find themselves flush with extra cash due to the elimination of income taxes, they might experience a short-term surge in speculative investment. This could mirror the crypto bull run seen during the COVID-19 stimulus period, when stimulus checks fueled a wave of retail investment in everything from Gamestop (GME), bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies.

如果美国人突然发现自己因取消所得税而拥有大量额外现金，他们可能会经历投机性投资的短期激增。这可能反映了 COVID-19 刺激期间出现的加密货币牛市，当时刺激支票推动了对 Gamestop (GME)、比特币和其他加密货币等各种货币的散户投资浪潮。

Bitcoin is much more accessible to consumers today than just a few short years ago with the advent of bitcoin spot ETFs and slicker user experiences. At the same time, the struggles of Ethereum since its migration to Proof of Stake, along with the failure of the NFT fad, means that bitcoin may be more easily distinguished from the noise of speculative bubbles in the minds of retail investors.

随着比特币现货 ETF 的出现和更流畅的用户体验，如今的消费者比几年前更容易获得比特币。与此同时，以太坊自迁移到权益证明以来的挣扎，以及 NFT 热潮的失败，意味着比特币可能更容易与散户投资者心中的投机泡沫噪音区分开来。

Elimination of income tax could lead to a glut of disposable income, which in turn could trigger a flurry of bitcoin demand that would drive up the price in the short term. However, as tariffs drive up consumer prices, people might liquidate some of their bitcoin holdings to cover rising costs of living. This could result in a sharp sell-off, or even an extended price correction, as we saw after the stimulus-driven bitcoin rally of 2020-2021.

取消所得税可能会导致可支配收入过剩，进而引发比特币需求激增，从而在短期内推高价格。然而，随着关税推高消费价格，人们可能会清算部分比特币持有量以支付不断上涨的生活成本。正如我们在 2020 年至 2021 年刺激驱动的比特币反弹之后所看到的那样，这可能会导致大幅抛售，甚至是长期的价格调整。

Over the longer term, swapping income tax for tariffs would entirely remake the U.S. economy, with both positive and negative effects. If domestic manufacturers become more competitive as imported goods get more expensive, we could see a resurgence in American industry. This "reshoring" of production, where companies move their manufacturing operations back to the U.S. to avoid tariffs, could increase domestic job creation and spur overall economic growth.

从长远来看，以关税取代所得税将彻底重塑美国经济，既有积极的影响，也有消极的影响。如果随着进口商品变得更加昂贵，国内制造商变得更具竞争力，我们可能会看到美国工业的复苏。这种生产“回流”，即企业将制造业务迁回美国以避免关税，可能会增加国内就业机会并刺激整体经济增长。

As labor participation increases and domestic production ramps up, Americans might experience a greater sense of economic stability. With more consistent income streams and growing confidence in the future, people may begin to lower their time preference and invest in long-term stores of value – bitcoin included. Economic growth, combined with the realization that fiat currencies will always lose purchasing power over time, could lead to a long-term structural increase in demand for bitcoin.

随着劳动力参与率的提高和国内生产的增加，美国人可能会感受到更大的经济稳定感。随着收入来源更加稳定以及对未来的信心不断增强，人们可能会开始降低时间偏好并投资于长期价值存储——包括比特币。经济增长，再加上法定货币总会随着时间的推移而失去购买力的认识，可能会导致比特币需求的长期结构性增长。

Bitcoin's Role After Eliminating Income Tax

取消所得税后比特币的作用

Income tax is deeply embedded in the fabric of American financial life, shaping everything

所得税深深植根于美国金融生活的结构中，影响着一切