比爾·米勒四世採訪

Bill Miller IV，Miller Value Partners和Bitcoin 2025發言人的CIO，加入Bitcoin雜誌的“ The Culture Bit”，為比特幣的第一個市場案例提供

Bill Miller IV, CIO of Miller Value Partners and Bitcoin 2025 speaker, joins Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Culture Bit” to discuss his thoughts on Bitcoin and the role it plays in the broader macroeconomic landscape.

Bill Miller IV，Miller Value Partners的CIO和Bitcoin 2025演講者，加入了比特幣雜誌的“ The Cultian Bit”，討論了他對比特幣的想法及其在更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境中所扮演的角色。

Known for his contrarian investment strategies and deep understanding of financial markets, Bill shares a unique perspective on why Bitcoin is not simply an asset class but a groundbreaking innovation that is fundamentally shifting the way we perceive and interact with capital.

比爾以他的逆勢投資策略和對金融市場的深刻了解而聞名，對為什麼比特幣不僅是資產類別，而且是一種從根本上改變我們感知和與資本互動的開創性創新。

We open our discussion with Bill highlighting the pressing need for new thinking in the face of an economic outlook that is becoming increasingly bleak.

我們以比爾（Bill）進行討論，強調面對經濟前景越來越黯淡的經濟前景，對新思維的迫切需求。

As institutions and investors grapple with the implications of a rapidly changing world, Bill argues that we must go back to first principles and question the assumptions that underlie our investment decisions.

隨著機構和投資者應對迅速變化的世界的影響，比爾認為我們必須回到第一原則，並質疑我們投資決策的基礎的假設。

“There’s an interesting inertia that’s setting in with institutions. I think a lot of the strategy comes from Strategy, which is the consulting firm that works with a lot of these large institutions. They’re putting out a bleak outlook for the next 10 years. It’s going to be an interesting case study to see how this plays out. But I think there’s a great deal of hyperbole in some of the narratives that are being put forward.”

“有一個有趣的慣性與機構結合在一起。我認為許多策略都來自策略，這是一家與許多這些大型機構一起工作的諮詢公司。他們在未來10年中為未來10年的景象提供了一個艱難的外觀。這將是一個有趣的案例研究，以了解這是如何發揮的。但是，我認為這是一個很好的事。

In a time when the standard Keynesian economic policies are no longer yielding the desired results, and institutions are becoming increasingly risk-adverse, there is a clear need for a new paradigm.

在標準的凱恩斯主義經濟政策不再產生所需結果並且機構變得越來越不利的時候，顯然需要新的範式。

Bill continues by discussing the concept of financial entropy and how it relates to the broader macroeconomic trends we are observing today.

比爾繼續討論財務熵的概念及其與我們今天觀察到的更廣泛的宏觀經濟趨勢的關係。

As the world becomes increasingly interconnected and complex, there is a constant flow of energy and information. But in the process of this integration, we are also seeing an increase in chaos and uncertainty.

隨著世界變得越來越互連和復雜，能量和信息持續不斷。但是，在這種整合過程中，我們也看到混亂和不確定性的增加。

“There’s an interesting discussion to be had about financial entropy. I recently came across an article by a physicist who was talking about the concept of entropy in the financial markets. He was arguing that as the markets become more integrated and interconnected, there is an increasing level of chaos and unpredictability.”

“關於財務熵的討論很有趣。我最近遇到了一位物理學家的一篇文章，他在談論金融市場中的熵概念。他認為，隨著市場變得更加整合和相互聯繫，混亂和不可預測性的水平都在增加。”

This commentary on the increasing levels of financial entropy throughout the market comes in the same week that reports have emerged that a key metric of U.S. macroeconomic health—used to predict the likelihood of a recession—is rapidly deteriorating at its fastest pace since the 1960s.

關於整個市場的財務熵水平不斷提高的評論是在同一周出現的，報告說，自1960年代以來，美國宏觀經濟健康的關鍵指標（用於預測經濟衰退的可能性）迅速惡化。

According to a new analysis by Real Clear Politics (RCP), the Rising Prices Component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is plummeting at an unprecedented rate. In June, this indicator, which measures changes in the prices of new goods and services, decreased by a staggering 12.96% over the previous month.

根據Real Clear Politics（RCP）的一項新分析，消費者價格指數（CPI）的價格上漲以前所未有的速度下降。 6月，該指標衡量了新商品和服務價格的變化，比上個月降低了12.96％。

This substantial decline is a direct consequence of the recent actions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to mitigate inflation. Having attained a peak of 20.04% in January, the indicator is now freefalling from the dizzying heights it reached earlier this year.

這種實質性下降是美聯儲（美聯儲）最近採取的減輕通貨膨脹的直接結果。一月份達到20.04％的峰值之後，該指標現在從今年早些時候達到的令人眼花高度的高度中自由降落。

In the early stages of 2023, economists at J.P. Morgan, a leading investment bank, highlighted the close ties between the Rising Prices Component of the CPI and the occurrence of recessions within a time frame of around 12 months. Their analysis, which covered a period from 1957 to 2021, indicated that a 10% or greater decline in this component of the CPI from its 12-month high was a strong predictor of a forthcoming recession.

在2023年的初期，領先的投資銀行JP Morgan的經濟學家強調了CPI的價格上漲與在12個月左右的時間範圍內的緊密聯繫與衰退的發生之間的聯繫。他們的分析涵蓋了1957年至2021年的一段時間，表明CPI的這一組成部分從其12個月的高點下降了10％或更高的下降，這是即將發生的衰退的有力預測指標。

This analysis, which is cited by RCP, suggests that the U.S. economy might already be sliding into a recessionary period.

RCP引用的該分析表明，美國經濟可能已經進入了衰退時期。

As we delve further into the implications of macroeconomic trends, we turn our attention to the role of institutions in navigating these turbulent times.

隨著我們進一步研究宏觀經濟趨勢的含義，我們將注意力轉向機構在導航這些動盪時期的作用。

Discussing the timelessness of investing wisdom and how it applies to the new generation of investors who are entering the market, Bill shares insights from his father, the legendary investor Bill Miller III, and his own experiences.

討論投資智慧的永恆性以及它如何適用於進入市場的新一代投資者，Bill股票股票來自他父親，傳奇的投資者Bill Miller III及其自己的經驗。

“My father always used to say that the best time to buy stocks was when people were most pessimistic and the worst time was when they were most optimistic. I think the same can be said for Bitcoin. People who are skeptical of Bitcoin are usually more interested in learning about it and they are also the ones who are more likely to hold onto it for the long term.”

“我的父親總是曾經說，購買股票的最佳時間是人們最悲觀的時候，而最糟糕的時間是他們最樂觀的時候。我認為比特幣可以這樣說。對比特幣持懷疑態度的人通常對學習它更感興趣，而且他們也是長期持續更可能堅持下去的人。”

In a rapidly changing world where institutions and investors are struggling to keep pace, there is a clear need for new thinking and new strategies.

在一個迅速變化的世界中，機構和投資者正在努力保持步伐，這顯然需要新的思維和新策略。

As the macroeconomic outlook becomes increasingly bleak and the standard Keynesian economic policies become less effective, we must go back to first principles and question the assumptions that underlie our investment decisions.

隨著宏觀經濟前景變得越來越黯淡，標準的凱恩斯主義經濟政策變得越來越少，我們必須回到第一原則，並質疑我們投資決策的基礎的假設。

Discussing the role of institutions in the broader crypto narrative, Bill highlights how the time for investors of all-types to be sitting on the fence with regards to Bitcoin is coming to an end.

比爾討論機構在更廣泛的加密敘事中的作用，強調了全類投資者坐在柵欄上的時間是如何結束的。

“I think it’s going to be interesting to see what happens with institutions and Bitcoin in the next few years. My father has a very big position in Bitcoin and it’s a part of a broader

“我認為，看看未來幾年的機構和比特幣會發生什麼。