比尔·米勒四世采访

Bill Miller IV，Miller Value Partners和Bitcoin 2025发言人的CIO，加入Bitcoin杂志的“ The Culture Bit”，为比特币的第一个市场案例提供

Bill Miller IV, CIO of Miller Value Partners and Bitcoin 2025 speaker, joins Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Culture Bit” to discuss his thoughts on Bitcoin and the role it plays in the broader macroeconomic landscape.

Bill Miller IV，Miller Value Partners的CIO和Bitcoin 2025演讲者，加入了比特币杂志的“ The Cultian Bit”，讨论了他对比特币的想法及其在更广泛的宏观经济环境中所扮演的角色。

Known for his contrarian investment strategies and deep understanding of financial markets, Bill shares a unique perspective on why Bitcoin is not simply an asset class but a groundbreaking innovation that is fundamentally shifting the way we perceive and interact with capital.

比尔以他的逆势投资策略和对金融市场的深刻了解而闻名，对为什么比特币不仅是资产类别，而且是一种从根本上改变我们感知和与资本互动的开创性创新。

We open our discussion with Bill highlighting the pressing need for new thinking in the face of an economic outlook that is becoming increasingly bleak.

我们以比尔（Bill）进行讨论，强调面对经济前景越来越黯淡的经济前景，对新思维的迫切需求。

As institutions and investors grapple with the implications of a rapidly changing world, Bill argues that we must go back to first principles and question the assumptions that underlie our investment decisions.

随着机构和投资者应对迅速变化的世界的影响，比尔认为我们必须回到第一原则，并质疑我们投资决策的基础的假设。

“There’s an interesting inertia that’s setting in with institutions. I think a lot of the strategy comes from Strategy, which is the consulting firm that works with a lot of these large institutions. They’re putting out a bleak outlook for the next 10 years. It’s going to be an interesting case study to see how this plays out. But I think there’s a great deal of hyperbole in some of the narratives that are being put forward.”

“有一个有趣的惯性与机构结合在一起。我认为许多策略都来自策略，这是一家与许多这些大型机构一起工作的咨询公司。他们在未来10年中为未来10年的景象提供了一个艰难的外观。这将是一个有趣的案例研究，以了解这是如何发挥的。但是，我认为这是一个很好的事。

In a time when the standard Keynesian economic policies are no longer yielding the desired results, and institutions are becoming increasingly risk-adverse, there is a clear need for a new paradigm.

在标准的凯恩斯主义经济政策不再产生所需结果并且机构变得越来越不利的时候，显然需要新的范式。

Bill continues by discussing the concept of financial entropy and how it relates to the broader macroeconomic trends we are observing today.

比尔继续讨论财务熵的概念及其与我们今天观察到的更广泛的宏观经济趋势的关系。

As the world becomes increasingly interconnected and complex, there is a constant flow of energy and information. But in the process of this integration, we are also seeing an increase in chaos and uncertainty.

随着世界变得越来越互连和复杂，能量和信息持续不断。但是，在这种整合过程中，我们也看到混乱和不确定性的增加。

“There’s an interesting discussion to be had about financial entropy. I recently came across an article by a physicist who was talking about the concept of entropy in the financial markets. He was arguing that as the markets become more integrated and interconnected, there is an increasing level of chaos and unpredictability.”

“关于财务熵的讨论很有趣。我最近遇到了一位物理学家的一篇文章，他在谈论金融市场中的熵概念。他认为，随着市场变得更加整合和相互联系，混乱和不可预测性的水平都在增加。”

This commentary on the increasing levels of financial entropy throughout the market comes in the same week that reports have emerged that a key metric of U.S. macroeconomic health—used to predict the likelihood of a recession—is rapidly deteriorating at its fastest pace since the 1960s.

关于整个市场的财务熵水平不断提高的评论是在同一周出现的，报告说，自1960年代以来，美国宏观经济健康的关键指标（用于预测经济衰退的可能性）迅速恶化。

According to a new analysis by Real Clear Politics (RCP), the Rising Prices Component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is plummeting at an unprecedented rate. In June, this indicator, which measures changes in the prices of new goods and services, decreased by a staggering 12.96% over the previous month.

根据Real Clear Politics（RCP）的一项新分析，消费者价格指数（CPI）的价格上涨以前所未有的速度下降。 6月，该指标衡量了新商品和服务价格的变化，比上个月降低了12.96％。

This substantial decline is a direct consequence of the recent actions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to mitigate inflation. Having attained a peak of 20.04% in January, the indicator is now freefalling from the dizzying heights it reached earlier this year.

这种实质性下降是美联储（美联储）最近采取的减轻通货膨胀的直接结果。一月份达到20.04％的峰值之后，该指标现在从今年早些时候达到的令人眼花高度的高度中自由降落。

In the early stages of 2023, economists at J.P. Morgan, a leading investment bank, highlighted the close ties between the Rising Prices Component of the CPI and the occurrence of recessions within a time frame of around 12 months. Their analysis, which covered a period from 1957 to 2021, indicated that a 10% or greater decline in this component of the CPI from its 12-month high was a strong predictor of a forthcoming recession.

在2023年的初期，领先的投资银行JP Morgan的经济学家强调了CPI的价格上涨与在12个月左右的时间范围内的紧密联系与衰退的发生之间的联系。他们的分析涵盖了1957年至2021年的一段时间，表明CPI的这一组成部分从其12个月的高点下降了10％或更高的下降，这是即将发生的衰退的有力预测指标。

This analysis, which is cited by RCP, suggests that the U.S. economy might already be sliding into a recessionary period.

RCP引用的该分析表明，美国经济可能已经进入了衰退时期。

As we delve further into the implications of macroeconomic trends, we turn our attention to the role of institutions in navigating these turbulent times.

随着我们进一步研究宏观经济趋势的含义，我们将注意力转向机构在导航这些动荡时期的作用。

Discussing the timelessness of investing wisdom and how it applies to the new generation of investors who are entering the market, Bill shares insights from his father, the legendary investor Bill Miller III, and his own experiences.

讨论投资智慧的永恒性以及它如何适用于进入市场的新一代投资者，Bill股票股票来自他父亲，传奇的投资者Bill Miller III及其自己的经验。

“My father always used to say that the best time to buy stocks was when people were most pessimistic and the worst time was when they were most optimistic. I think the same can be said for Bitcoin. People who are skeptical of Bitcoin are usually more interested in learning about it and they are also the ones who are more likely to hold onto it for the long term.”

“我的父亲总是曾经说，购买股票的最佳时间是人们最悲观的时候，而最糟糕的时间是他们最乐观的时候。我认为比特币可以这样说。对比特币持怀疑态度的人通常对学习它更感兴趣，而且他们也是长期持续更可能坚持下去的人。”

In a rapidly changing world where institutions and investors are struggling to keep pace, there is a clear need for new thinking and new strategies.

在一个迅速变化的世界中，机构和投资者正在努力保持步伐，这显然需要新的思维和新策略。

As the macroeconomic outlook becomes increasingly bleak and the standard Keynesian economic policies become less effective, we must go back to first principles and question the assumptions that underlie our investment decisions.

随着宏观经济前景变得越来越黯淡，标准的凯恩斯主义经济政策变得越来越少，我们必须回到第一原则，并质疑我们投资决策的基础的假设。

Discussing the role of institutions in the broader crypto narrative, Bill highlights how the time for investors of all-types to be sitting on the fence with regards to Bitcoin is coming to an end.

比尔讨论机构在更广泛的加密叙事中的作用，强调了全类投资者坐在栅栏上的时间是如何结束的。

“I think it’s going to be interesting to see what happens with institutions and Bitcoin in the next few years. My father has a very big position in Bitcoin and it’s a part of a broader

“我认为，看看未来几年的机构和比特币会发生什么。