分析师说，比特币（BTC）价格合并可能是市场下降的前身。

在过去的几周中，比特币在84,000美元至86,000美元之间的交易中取得了显着的合并。尽管价格最初涨幅，但在过去一周中，加密货币在3.7％下降了3.7％，在过去一个月中却近10％，这表明其上升势头停滞时期。

Bitcoin has seen a notable price consolidation over the past few weeks, trading between the $84,000 and $86,000 levels.

在过去的几周中，比特币在84,000美元至86,000美元之间的交易中取得了显着的合并。

Despite the initial surge in price, the cryptocurrency has faced a decline of 3.7% in the past week and nearly 10% in the past month, signaling a period of stagnation in its upward momentum.

尽管价格最初涨幅，但在过去一周中，加密货币在3.7％下降了3.7％，在过去一个月中却近10％，这表明其上升势头停滞时期。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $84,263, raising questions about the future trajectory of the asset as investors await a clear direction.

在撰写本文时，比特币的价格为84,263美元，提出了有关投资者在等待明确方向的资产未来轨迹的疑问。

The Dead Cross: A Signal for a Potential Price Drop?

死十字架：潜在价格下降的信号？

BilalHuseynov, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake Platform, has offered valuable insights into Bitcoin’s current market behavior. In his latest post, titled “Will Bitcoin Drop Anymore?”, he sheds light on key on-chain metrics that may help predict the next movement in Bitcoin’s price.

CryptoQuant QuickTake平台的贡献者Bilalhuseynov为比特币当前的市场行为提供了宝贵的见解。在他的最新帖子中，他的标题为“比特币掉落了？”，他阐明了关键的链链指标，这些指标可能有助于预测比特币价格的下一个运动。

His analysis revolves around the behavior of two important metrics: Realized Cap and Thermo Cap, particularly focusing on their recent crossover, which could have significant implications for Bitcoin’s price direction.

他的分析围绕了两个重要指标的行为：实现的上限和热帽，尤其是关注他们最近的跨界车，这可能对比特币的价格方向产生重大影响。

Huseynov explains that the Realized Cap metric, which tracks Bitcoin’s total value based on its last movement price, gives a more accurate representation of the network’s economic value.

Huseynov解释说，已实现的CAP指标，该指标根据其上次移动价格跟踪比特币的总价值，可以更准确地表示网络的经济价值。

On the other hand, Thermo Cap measures the total capital introduced into the BTC network through mining. When Thermo Cap crosses below Realized Cap — known as a “Dead Cross” — it signals that Bitcoin might be heading toward a price decline.

另一方面，Thermo Cap通过采矿来测量引入BTC网络的总资本。当Thermo Cap越过所实现的上限（称为“死十字”）时，它表明比特币可能正朝着价格下降趋势。

Huseynov predicts that BTC’s price could drop to as low as $75,000 if the second Dead Cross materializes.

Huseynov预测，如果第二次Dead Cross实现，BTC的价格可能会降至75,000美元。

Is The Bitcoin Market Condition Still Healthy?

比特币市场状况仍然健康吗？

In addition to Huseynov analysis, another CryptoQuant’s analyst Banker has provided insight into the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which tracks the movement of long-dormant BTC.

除了Huseynov分析外，另一位加密的分析师银行家还提供了对破坏硬币日（CDD）度量的洞察力，该日期跟踪了长期休眠BTC的运动。

Since March 2025, the CDD 60-day moving average has remained low, indicating that long-term holders are not selling their Bitcoin in large quantities. This behavior is often a sign of confidence among seasoned investors, suggesting that they believe in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

自2025年3月以来，CDD 60天移动平均线一直保持较低，这表明长期持有人没有大量出售其比特币。这种行为通常是经验丰富的投资者中信心的迹象，表明他们相信比特币的长期潜力。

The absence of major CDD spikes indicates that the market is not experiencing extreme price volatility, which could signal a period of consolidation or eventual upward momentum as selling pressure remains low.

缺乏主要的CDD尖峰表明市场没有经历极端价格波动，这可能标志着一段时间的合并或最终向上势头，因为销售压力仍然很低。

This development also coincides with recent reports of short-term holders exhibiting less selling pressure after their initial move of taking profits.

这一发展还与最近的报道有关短期持有人的最初获利行动后表现出较小的销售压力。