中國經濟表現不佳，亞洲股市可能陷入困境，比特幣突破 81,000 美元

- 由於中國經濟措施表現不佳以及週末公佈疲軟的通膨數據，亞洲股市早盤交易可能會陷入困境。在當選總統唐納德·川普橫掃美國七個戰場州後，比特幣價格突破 81,000 美元。

Asian stocks may struggle in early trading after underwhelming Chinese economic measures and anemic inflation data over the weekend, while Bitcoin topped $81,000 after President-elect Donald Trump took a clean sweep of the seven US battleground states.

在周末中國經濟措施平淡和通膨數據疲軟之後，亞洲股市早盤可能會陷入困境，而當選總統唐納德·川普橫掃美國七個戰場州後，比特幣突破 81,000 美元。

Australian shares fell and futures in Tokyo and Hong Kong signaled losses after China’s 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 billion) plan to help local governments deal with hidden debt stopped short of including new measures to boost domestic demand. US futures edged higher after the S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Friday to cap stocks’ best week this year in anticipation of Trump’s pro-growth agenda.

在中國幫助地方政府處理隱性債務的 10 兆元（14 億美元）計畫沒有包括刺激內需的新措施後，澳洲股市下跌，東京和香港期貨出現下跌。由於預期川普的促進成長議程，標準普爾週五 500 指數上漲 0.4%，結束股市今年表現最好的一周，美國期貨小幅走高。

A softer start is expected in Asia after the region’s stocks jumped 2.4% last week amid improved sentiment following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and hopes for more stimulus in China. Investors are now shifting to assess how quickly Trump will implement his fiscal and protectionist trade policies, including proposed tariffs on China.

亞洲股市上週上漲 2.4%，因聯準會降息後市場人氣有所改善，並希望中國出台更多刺激措施，預計亞洲股市開局會較為疲軟。投資者現在開始評估川普將多快實施其財政和保護主義貿易政策，包括擬議的對中國徵收關稅。

“The market’s next move will hinge on whether Trump prioritizes cutting taxes or raising tariffs, each having vastly different impact,” Tony Sycamore, an IG Markets analyst in Sydney, wrote in a note. “This clarification may still be months away and it’s worth remembering that back in 2016, Trump’s first move was to cut taxes which sent stock markets surging before tariffs on China caused headwinds.”

IG Markets駐雪梨分析師托尼·西卡莫爾(Tony Sycamore)在一份報告中寫道：「市場的下一步行動將取決於川普是否優先考慮減稅或提高關稅，兩者的影響截然不同。 「這項澄清可能還需要幾個月的時間，值得記住的是，早在2016 年，川普的第一個舉措就是減稅，這導致股市飆升，然後對中國的關稅造成了阻力。 」

Bitcoin surged past $81,000 for the first time in early Asia hours, after hitting a record $80,000 on Sunday, fueled by the incoming president’s support for digital assets and the election of pro-crypto lawmakers.

在即將上任的總統對數位資產的支持和支持加密貨幣的立法者當選的推動下，比特幣在周日觸及創紀錄的 80,000 美元後，在亞洲早盤時段首次飆升至 81,000 美元以上。

Meantime, sentiment toward China is faltering as foreign direct investment slumps amid geopolitical tensions, competition from domestic industries and concerns over the nation’s economic outlook. Consumer inflation eased closer to zero in October, suggesting the government’s latest round of stimulus is far from sufficient to free the economy from the grip of deflation.

同時，由於地緣政治緊張、國內產業競爭以及對國家經濟前景的擔憂，外國直接投資大幅下滑，人們對中國的信心正在動搖。十月份消費者通膨率降至接近零的水平，這表明政府的最新一輪刺激措施遠遠不足以使經濟擺脫通貨緊縮的束縛。

“Many feel that China is keeping its tactical powder in play for such time as the Trump-China tariff negotiations build, and they can respond in a more targeted fashion to stem the likely economic fallout,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne, wrote in a note. “In the short-term, however, it does suggest downside risk to China/Hong Kong equity and the yuan.”

Pepperstone Group 研究主管 Chris Weston 表示：「許多人認為，隨著川普與中國的關稅談判的展開，中國正在保持其戰術優勢，他們可以以更有針對性的方式做出反應，以遏制可能的經濟影響。 “然而，從短期來看，這確實表明中國/香港股市和人民幣面臨下行風險。”

The dollar edged higher against major peers in early Asian trading, extending last week’s gain amid concerns that Trump’s fiscal policies will stoke inflation. While the US Treasury yield curve flattened Friday, firms including BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and TCW Group are warning that the bond market selloff is likely far from over. Cash Treasuries are closed Monday for a holiday.

由於擔心川普的財政政策將引發通膨，美元兌主要貨幣在亞洲早盤小幅走高，延續了上週的漲勢。雖然美國國債殖利率曲線週五趨於平緩，但貝萊德、摩根大通和 TCW 集團等公司警告稱，債券市場拋售可能遠未結束。現金國債週一因假期休市。

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari indicated at the weekend the central bank could ease rates less than previously expected amid a strong US economy. Kashkari emphasized, however, that it’s too early to determine the impact of Trump’s policies.

明尼阿波利斯聯邦儲備銀行行長尼爾卡什卡利週末表示，在美國經濟強勁的情況下，央行的降息幅度可能會低於先前的預期。然而卡什卡利強調，現在確定川普政策的影響還為時過早。

Oil was little changed near $70 a barrel in early Asian trading after falling 2.7% on Friday amid disappointment over China’s stimulus measures. Gold was steady.

由於對中國刺激措施的失望，油價週五下跌 2.7%，亞洲早盤油價在每桶 70 美元附近變化不大。黃金表現穩定。

This week, traders will be parsing data from Australian jobs to Chinese retail sales and industrial production, inflation from the US and Eurozone as well as growth readings in the UK and Japan. A swath of Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak which may help indicate the central bank’s thinking following the election result.

本週，交易員將解析澳洲就業數據、中國零售銷售和工業生產數據、美國和歐元區的通膨數據以及英國和日本的成長數據。一系列聯準會官員計劃發表講話，這可能有助於表明聯準會在選舉結果後的想法。

Some of the major moves in markets:

市場的一些重大變動：

Stocks

股票

Nikkei futures fell 0.2%

日經指數期貨下跌 0.2%

Topix futures lost 0.1%

東證期貨下跌 0.1%

S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%

標普 500 指數期貨上漲 0.1%

Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1%

那斯達克100指數期貨上漲0.1%

Australian equities decreased 0.3%

澳洲股市下跌 0.3%

Hong Kong futures declined 0.3%

香港期貨下跌0.3%

Shanghai Composite down 0.1%

上證綜合指數下跌0.1%

MSCI All-Country World Index futures were steady

MSCI 全球指數期貨穩定

Currencies

貨幣

Dollar Index advanced 0.1% to 94.206

美元指數上漲0.1%至94.206

Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%

彭博美元現貨指數上漲 0.1%

Euro slipped 0.1% to $1.0866

歐元下跌 0.1% 至 1.0866 美元

Yen was flat at 113.81 per dollar

日圓兌美元匯率持平於 113.81

Offshore yuan gained 0.1% to 7.0108 against the dollar

離岸人民幣兌美元匯率上漲0.1%至7.0108

Cryptocurrencies

加密貨幣

Bitcoin soared 0.6% to $81,184.9

比特幣飆升 0.6% 至 81,184.9 美元

Ethereum gained 0.2% to $2,226.08

以太幣上漲 0.2% 至 2,226.08 美元

Bonds

債券

Indicative 10-year Treasury yields were steady at 1.62%

指示性 10 年期公債殖利率穩定在 1.62%

Australia’s 3-year yield decreased two basis points to 0.85%

澳洲3年期公債殖利率下跌2個基點至0.85%

Commodities

商品

West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.03 a barrel

西德州中質原油價格為每桶 70.03 美元

Brent crude steadied at $73.68 a barrel

布蘭特原油穩定在每桶 73.68 美元

Gold was at $1,768

黃金價格為 1,768 美元