本周市场：加拿大央行降息、采购经理人指数、在二战担忧加剧之际金价上涨

在今天的亚洲交易时段，外汇市场基本保持盘整状态，大多数主要货币对在熟悉的区间内波动。

Forex markets remained largely in a consolidative state during the Asian trading session today, with most major currency pairs trading within familiar ranges.

今天的亚洲交易时段，外汇市场基本保持盘整状态，大多数主要货币对在熟悉的区间内交易。

The Japanese Yen showed slight firmness, trading in a tight range alongside the Dollar and Kiwi. Conversely, the British Pound Sterling softened, accompanied by the Loonie and Aussie.

日元略有坚挺，与美元和新西兰元一起窄幅波动。相反，英镑走软，加元和澳元也随之走软。

The widely anticipated rate cut by PBoC did not elicit significant reactions in Asian markets, indicating that the move was already priced in by investors.

普遍预期的中国央行降息并未在亚洲市场引起重大反应，这表明投资者已经消化了这一举措。

Market activity is expected to remain subdued today due to a near-empty economic calendar. Although several Fed officials are scheduled to speak, they are unlikely to provide substantial new insights that could influence market dynamics.

由于经济日历近乎清空，预计今天市场活动将继续低迷。尽管几位美联储官员计划发表讲话，但他们不太可能提供可能影响市场动态的实质性新见解。

Fed remains on track for two additional 25 basis point rate cuts this year. Some policymakers might indicate the possibility of only one more cut, depending on upcoming economic data.

美联储今年仍有望再两次降息 25 个基点。一些政策制定者可能表示，根据即将公布的经济数据，可能只会再降息一次。

The main events for the week will take place midweek, with BoC’s widely anticipated rate cut on Wednesday, followed by the release of PMI data from Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US on Thursday.

本周的主要事件将在周中发生，人们普遍预期加拿大央行将在周三降息，随后周四将公布澳大利亚、日本、欧元区、英国和美国的 PMI 数据。

Technically, Bitcoin is starting to feel heavy around 70k handle. There is still no decisive momentum to push it through 73812 high. Indeed, break of 66627 support will suggest short term topping, and extend the consolidation pattern from 73812 with another falling leg.

从技术上讲，比特币在 70k 左右开始感觉沉重。目前仍没有决定性的动力推动其突破73812高点。事实上，突破66627支撑位将意味着短期见顶，并以另一条下跌腿延续73812点的盘整格局。

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.11%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.44%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.36%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.58%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0087 at 0.962.

截至撰写本文时，亚洲日经指数上涨 0.11%。香港恒生指数下跌-1.44%。中国上海证券交易所上涨0.36%。新加坡海峡时报下跌-0.58%。日本10年期日本国债收益率下跌-0.0087至0.962。

RBA’s Hauser signals no early rate cuts as inflation remains too high

澳洲联储豪瑟表示，由于通胀仍然过高，不会提前降息

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted today that inflation in Australia “is still too high for us to be considering cutting interest rates at this stage.”

澳洲联储副行长安德鲁·豪瑟今天强调，澳大利亚的通胀“仍然太高，我们现阶段不宜考虑降息”。

Recent strong employment data led markets to push back the expected timing for the first rate cut from February to April. Hauser declined to comment on the market’s pricing but noted that “the response of rates to the data does seem to be quite encouraging.”

最近强劲的就业数据导致市场将首次降息的预期时间从 2 月推迟到 4 月。豪瑟拒绝对市场定价发表评论，但指出“利率对数据的反应似乎确实相当令人鼓舞。”

While acknowledging the importance of data, Hauser stressed that RBA is “data-dependent but not data-obsessed,” adding that broader economic conditions also factor into policy decisions.

豪瑟在承认数据重要性的同时强调，澳大利亚央行“依赖数据，但并不痴迷于数据”，并补充说，更广泛的经济状况也会影响政策决策。

“Activity has been weak, very weak, and we haven’t seen the inflation number for the third quarter yet,” he added.

“经济活动一直疲弱，非常疲软，我们还没有看到第三季度的通胀数据，”他补充道。

This cautious approach by RBA contrasts with other central banks that have already begun easing, underscoring Australia's persistent inflationary pressures. The market will be closely watching the third-quarter inflation data to gauge the timing and magnitude of future policy changes.

澳洲联储的这种谨慎态度与其他已经开始宽松的央行形成鲜明对比，突显了澳大利亚持续的通胀压力。市场将密切关注第三季度通胀数据，以衡量未来政策变化的时机和幅度。

Gold continues record rally amid rising world war fears

世界大战担忧加剧，金价继续创纪录上涨

Gold prices edged higher in the Asian session today, extending their recent record-breaking run. While some market observers attribute the precious metal's rally to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election—with no clear frontrunner between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump—the persistent climb in U.S. stock markets to new record highs suggests that domestic political factors may not be the primary driver. Instead, escalating geopolitical risks appear to be fueling increased demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset.

今天亚洲时段金价小幅走高，延续了近期破纪录的走势。尽管一些市场观察人士将贵金属的上涨归因于即将举行的美国总统大选的不确定性（民主党人卡马拉·哈里斯和共和党人唐纳德·特朗普之间没有明显的领先者），但美国股市持续攀升至新纪录高点表明，国内政治因素可能不会影响贵金属价格的上涨。主要驱动力。相反，不断升级的地缘政治风险似乎正在推动对黄金作为避险资产的需求增加。

In the Middle East, Israel has intensified its military operations in both Gaza and Lebanon following recent developments, including the death of a prominent Hamas leader. Reports indicate that Iran-backed Hezbollah has conducted drone attacks targeting areas near Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence. The prospects for a near-term ceasefire seem increasingly remote, raising concerns about broader regional instability.

在中东，随着最近的事态发展，包括哈马斯一位著名领导人的死亡，以色列加强了在加沙和黎巴嫩的军事行动。报道称，伊朗支持的真主党对以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡官邸附近地区进行了无人机袭击。近期停火的前景似乎越来越渺茫，引发了人们对更广泛的地区不稳定的担忧。

Even more concerning, tensions are escalating in Eastern Europe. Thousands of North Korean troops are reportedly preparing to support Russia in its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with some North Korean military officers already deployed. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warned this could be the “first step to world war,” raising global alarm.

更令人担忧的是，东欧的紧张局势正在升级。据报道，数千名朝鲜军队正准备在乌克兰持续冲突中支持俄罗斯，一些朝鲜军官已经部署。乌克兰总统泽连斯基警告称，这可能是“世界大战的第一步”，引发全球恐慌。

Technically, further rally is expected in Gold as long as 2685.34. Next target is 61.8% projection of 2471.76 to 2685.34 from 2604.53 at 2736.62.

技术上，预计金价进一步反弹只要2685.34。下一个目标是从2604.53至2736.62的61.8%预测2471.76至2685.34。

But the a bigger test lies in 100% projection of 1984.05 to 2449.82 from 2239.45 at 2759.23. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside initially. However, decisive break above there would prompt upside acceleration. Next medium term target would then be 161.8% projection at 3047.08, which is slightly above 3000 psychological level.

但更大的考验在于从 2239.45 到 2759.23 的 1984.05 到 2449.82 的 100% 预测。那里可能会出现强大的阻力，最初限制了上涨空间。然而，果断突破该位将促使上行加速。下一个中期目标将是161.8%预测点3047.08，略高于3000点心理水平。

PBoC slashes loan prime rates, HSI unmoved

央行大幅下调贷款优惠利率 恒指不为所动

People’s Bank of China lowered its one-year loan

中国人民银行下调一年期贷款