本週市場：加拿大央行降息、採購經理人指數、在二戰擔憂加劇之際金價上漲

在現今的亞洲交易時段，外匯市場基本上維持盤整狀態，大多數主要貨幣對在熟悉的區間內波動。

Forex markets remained largely in a consolidative state during the Asian trading session today, with most major currency pairs trading within familiar ranges.

今天的亞洲交易時段，外匯市場基本上保持盤整狀態，大多數主要貨幣對在熟悉的區間內交易。

The Japanese Yen showed slight firmness, trading in a tight range alongside the Dollar and Kiwi. Conversely, the British Pound Sterling softened, accompanied by the Loonie and Aussie.

日圓略有堅挺，與美元和紐西蘭元一起窄幅波動。相反，英鎊走軟，加幣和澳元也隨之走軟。

The widely anticipated rate cut by PBoC did not elicit significant reactions in Asian markets, indicating that the move was already priced in by investors.

普遍預期的中國央行降息並未在亞洲市場引起重大反應，顯示投資者已經消化了這項舉措。

Market activity is expected to remain subdued today due to a near-empty economic calendar. Although several Fed officials are scheduled to speak, they are unlikely to provide substantial new insights that could influence market dynamics.

由於經濟日曆近乎清空，預計今天市場活動將繼續低迷。儘管幾位聯準會官員計劃發表講話，但他們不太可能提供可能影響市場動態的實質新見解。

Fed remains on track for two additional 25 basis point rate cuts this year. Some policymakers might indicate the possibility of only one more cut, depending on upcoming economic data.

聯準會今年仍有望再兩度降息 25 個基點。一些政策制定者可能表示，根據即將公佈的經濟數據，可能只會再降息一次。

The main events for the week will take place midweek, with BoC’s widely anticipated rate cut on Wednesday, followed by the release of PMI data from Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US on Thursday.

本週的主要事件將在周中發生，人們普遍預期加拿大央行將在周三降息，隨後週四將公佈澳洲、日本、歐元區、英國和美國的 PMI 數據。

Technically, Bitcoin is starting to feel heavy around 70k handle. There is still no decisive momentum to push it through 73812 high. Indeed, break of 66627 support will suggest short term topping, and extend the consolidation pattern from 73812 with another falling leg.

從技術上講，比特幣在 70k 左右開始感覺沉重。目前仍沒有決定性的動力推動其突破73812高點。事實上，突破66627支撐位將意味著短期見頂，並以另一條下跌腿延續73812點的盤整格局。

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.11%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.44%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.36%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.58%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0087 at 0.962.

截至撰寫本文時，亞洲日經指數上漲 0.11%。香港恆生指數下跌-1.44%。中國上海證券交易所上漲0.36%。新加坡海峽時報下跌-0.58%。日本10年期日本公債殖利率下跌-0.0087至0.962。

RBA’s Hauser signals no early rate cuts as inflation remains too high

澳洲聯邦儲備銀行豪瑟表示，由於通膨仍過高，不會提前降息

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted today that inflation in Australia “is still too high for us to be considering cutting interest rates at this stage.”

澳洲聯邦儲備銀行副行長安德魯·豪瑟今天強調，澳洲的通膨「仍然太高，我們現階段不宜考慮降息」。

Recent strong employment data led markets to push back the expected timing for the first rate cut from February to April. Hauser declined to comment on the market’s pricing but noted that “the response of rates to the data does seem to be quite encouraging.”

最近強勁的就業數據導致市場將首次降息的預期時間從 2 月推遲到 4 月。豪瑟拒絕對市場定價發表評論，但指出“利率對數據的反應似乎確實相當令人鼓舞。”

While acknowledging the importance of data, Hauser stressed that RBA is “data-dependent but not data-obsessed,” adding that broader economic conditions also factor into policy decisions.

豪瑟在承認數據重要性的同時強調，澳洲央行“依賴數據，但並不沉迷於數據”，並補充說，更廣泛的經濟狀況也會影響政策決策。

“Activity has been weak, very weak, and we haven’t seen the inflation number for the third quarter yet,” he added.

「經濟活動一直疲軟，非常疲軟，我們還沒有看到第三季的通膨數據，」他補充道。

This cautious approach by RBA contrasts with other central banks that have already begun easing, underscoring Australia's persistent inflationary pressures. The market will be closely watching the third-quarter inflation data to gauge the timing and magnitude of future policy changes.

澳洲央行的這種謹慎態度與其他已經開始寬鬆的央行形成鮮明對比，突顯了澳洲持續的通膨壓力。市場將密切關注第三季通膨數據，以衡量未來政策變化的時機和幅度。

Gold continues record rally amid rising world war fears

世界大戰擔憂加劇，金價繼續創紀錄上漲

Gold prices edged higher in the Asian session today, extending their recent record-breaking run. While some market observers attribute the precious metal's rally to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election—with no clear frontrunner between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump—the persistent climb in U.S. stock markets to new record highs suggests that domestic political factors may not be the primary driver. Instead, escalating geopolitical risks appear to be fueling increased demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset.

今天亞洲時段金價小幅走高，延續了近期破紀錄的走勢。儘管一些市場觀察者將貴金屬的上漲歸因於即將舉行的美國總統大選的不確定性（民主黨人卡馬拉·哈里斯和共和黨人唐納德·特朗普之間沒有明顯的領先者），但美國股市持續攀升至新紀錄高點表明，國內政治因素可能不會影響貴金屬價格的上漲。相反，不斷升級的地緣政治風險似乎正在推動對黃金作為避險資產的需求增加。

In the Middle East, Israel has intensified its military operations in both Gaza and Lebanon following recent developments, including the death of a prominent Hamas leader. Reports indicate that Iran-backed Hezbollah has conducted drone attacks targeting areas near Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence. The prospects for a near-term ceasefire seem increasingly remote, raising concerns about broader regional instability.

在中東，隨著最近的發展，包括哈馬斯一位著名領導人的死亡，以色列加強了在加薩和黎巴嫩的軍事行動。報道稱，伊朗支持的真主黨對以色列總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡官邸附近地區進行了無人機襲擊。近期停火的前景似乎越來越渺茫，引發了人們對更廣泛的地區不穩定的擔憂。

Even more concerning, tensions are escalating in Eastern Europe. Thousands of North Korean troops are reportedly preparing to support Russia in its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with some North Korean military officers already deployed. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warned this could be the “first step to world war,” raising global alarm.

更令人擔憂的是，東歐的緊張局勢正在升級。據報道，數千名北韓軍隊正準備在烏克蘭持續衝突中支持俄羅斯，一些北韓軍官已經部署。烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基警告稱，這可能是“世界大戰的第一步”，引發全球恐慌。

Technically, further rally is expected in Gold as long as 2685.34. Next target is 61.8% projection of 2471.76 to 2685.34 from 2604.53 at 2736.62.

技術上，預計金價進一步反彈只要2685.34。下一個目標是從2604.53至2736.62的61.8%預測2471.76至2685.34。

But the a bigger test lies in 100% projection of 1984.05 to 2449.82 from 2239.45 at 2759.23. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside initially. However, decisive break above there would prompt upside acceleration. Next medium term target would then be 161.8% projection at 3047.08, which is slightly above 3000 psychological level.

但更大的考驗在於從 2239.45 到 2759.23 的 1984.05 到 2449.82 的 100% 預測。那裡可能會出現強大的阻力，最初限制了上漲空間。然而，果斷突破該位將促使上行加速。下一個中期目標將是161.8%預測點3047.08，略高於3000點心理水準。

PBoC slashes loan prime rates, HSI unmoved

央行大幅調降貸款優惠利率 恆指不為所動

People’s Bank of China lowered its one-year loan

中國人民銀行下調一年期貸款