特朗普无论如何都喜欢谈论大型比赛

到美国和日本结束第一轮贸易谈判时，特朗普已经说他们取得了“巨大进展”

If there’s one thing that we’ve learnt from Trump over the years, it is that he loves to talk up a big game no matter what the situation is. Whether his claims hold up to scrutiny is a separate discussion.

如果多年来我们从特朗普那里学到了一件事，那就是他喜欢谈论一场大型比赛，无论情况如何。他的主张是否受到审查是一个单独的讨论。

And when it comes to boasting about something, or rather anything, it’s best to take it with a pinch of salt.

当涉及到某件事，或者更确切地说，最好用少许盐来服用。

As the US and Japan conclude the first round of tariff negotiations, Trump said that they made “big progress” in the talks this week. For what it’s worth, he is also “very confident” about a deal with the EU and they would “make a very good deal” with China. Call me a skeptic but yeah, it’s not the first time we see Trump talk up something when the reality begs to differ.

正如美国和日本结束的第一轮关税谈判时，特朗普说，他们在本周的会谈中取得了“重大进展”。就其价值而言，他也对与欧盟达成协议“非常有信心”，他们将与中国“做得很好”。称我为怀疑论，但是，是的，这不是我们第一次看到特朗普在现实遇到不同时说话。

In the case of the tariff talks with Japan, Akazawa was less upbeat about the situation as seen here.

就与日本的关税谈判而言，阿卡泽（Akazawa）对这里的情况不太乐观。

There weren’t any major details revealed but the only thing that seems to be agreed upon was that they are going to schedule more discussions in the weeks ahead. Is that really “big progress”?

没有透露任何主要细节，但似乎唯一一致的是他们将在未来几周内安排更多讨论。那真的是“大进步”吗？

We’ve seen this sort of episode before. If you recall back to 2019 when the US and China were discussing the Phase One trade deal, we basically got this wild contrast in communication between Trump and China:

我们以前已经看过这种情节。如果您回想起2019年美国和中国正在讨论第一阶段贸易协议时，我们基本上会在特朗普和中国之间的交流中发生这种狂野的对比：

Seems familiar?

似乎很熟悉？

Back then, Trump said that they struck “a very large deal” and that “Phase Two will begin immediately”. Meanwhile, China said that they had only “agreed on the text of the deal, which is still subject to legal review” and that “Phase Two will depend on the implementation of Phase One”.

当时，特朗普说，他们达成了“非常大的交易”，“第二阶段将立即开始”。同时，中国表示，他们只“同意该交易的文本，这仍然受到法律审查的约束”，“第二阶段将取决于第一阶段的实施”。

Of course, we all know how that neither side stuck to the deal at all in the end. But putting that aside, there is a precedent for Trump to make a play on words to give out an entirely different meaning to the actual situation.

当然，我们都知道最终都不会这样做。但是，除此之外，特朗普有一个先例可以在言语上发挥作用，以使实际情况完全不同。

As such, keep that in mind when reading into the remarks - not just for Japan, but the entire tariffs saga this time around.

因此，请记住，在阅读言论时 - 不仅是日本，而且这次的整个关税。

Now, I don't doubt that there will be a trade deal between the U.S. and Japan. Again, this is supposed to be one of the easiest battles for Trump to claim victory in this tariffs war. However, the details are going to be the key thing.

现在，我毫不怀疑美国和日本之间是否会达成贸易协议。同样，这应该是特朗普在这场关税战争中赢得胜利的最简单战斗之一。但是，细节将是关键。

Japan was slapped with 24% reciprocal tariffs initially, before the pause. Now, they're facing the 10% blanket tariffs and the 25% auto tariffs separately. The question then becomes which tariffs will go away after both sides strike an accord?

在停顿之前，日本最初被24％的互惠关税打了电话。现在，他们将面临10％的毛毯关税和25％的自动关税。然后，问题将变成双方达成协议后哪些关税会消失？

If there is a compromise on other things instead and the 10% tariffs stay the course, that is going to be a tough example for everyone else. While it might seem good that they didn't get hit with tariffs of 24% and "only" got 10%, it's a case of Trump basically hoodwinking the world into believing that is a good thing.

如果其他事情上有妥协，而10％的关税仍在该课程中，那将是其他所有人的艰难榜样。虽然他们没有被24％的关税和“只有”获得10％的关税似乎很不错，但这是特朗普基本上使世界蒙蔽的情况，因为人们认为这是一件好事。