特朗普無論如何都喜歡談論大型比賽

到美國和日本結束第一輪貿易談判時，特朗普已經說他們取得了“巨大進展”

If there’s one thing that we’ve learnt from Trump over the years, it is that he loves to talk up a big game no matter what the situation is. Whether his claims hold up to scrutiny is a separate discussion.

如果多年來我們從特朗普那裡學到了一件事，那就是他喜歡談論一場大型比賽，無論情況如何。他的主張是否受到審查是一個單獨的討論。

And when it comes to boasting about something, or rather anything, it’s best to take it with a pinch of salt.

當涉及到某件事，或者更確切地說，最好用少許鹽來服用。

As the US and Japan conclude the first round of tariff negotiations, Trump said that they made “big progress” in the talks this week. For what it’s worth, he is also “very confident” about a deal with the EU and they would “make a very good deal” with China. Call me a skeptic but yeah, it’s not the first time we see Trump talk up something when the reality begs to differ.

正如美國和日本結束的第一輪關稅談判時，特朗普說，他們在本週的會談中取得了“重大進展”。就其價值而言，他也對與歐盟達成協議“非常有信心”，他們將與中國“做得很好”。稱我為懷疑論，但是，是的，這不是我們第一次看到特朗普在現實遇到不同時說話。

In the case of the tariff talks with Japan, Akazawa was less upbeat about the situation as seen here.

就與日本的關稅談判而言，阿卡澤（Akazawa）對這裡的情況不太樂觀。

There weren’t any major details revealed but the only thing that seems to be agreed upon was that they are going to schedule more discussions in the weeks ahead. Is that really “big progress”?

沒有透露任何主要細節，但似乎唯一一致的是他們將在未來幾週內安排更多討論。那真的是“大進步”嗎？

We’ve seen this sort of episode before. If you recall back to 2019 when the US and China were discussing the Phase One trade deal, we basically got this wild contrast in communication between Trump and China:

我們以前已經看過這種情節。如果您回想起2019年美國和中國正在討論第一階段貿易協議時，我們基本上會在特朗普和中國之間的交流中發生這種狂野的對比：

Seems familiar?

似乎很熟悉？

Back then, Trump said that they struck “a very large deal” and that “Phase Two will begin immediately”. Meanwhile, China said that they had only “agreed on the text of the deal, which is still subject to legal review” and that “Phase Two will depend on the implementation of Phase One”.

當時，特朗普說，他們達成了“非常大的交易”，“第二階段將立即開始”。同時，中國表示，他們只“同意該交易的文本，這仍然受到法律審查的約束”，“第二階段將取決於第一階段的實施”。

Of course, we all know how that neither side stuck to the deal at all in the end. But putting that aside, there is a precedent for Trump to make a play on words to give out an entirely different meaning to the actual situation.

當然，我們都知道最終都不會這樣做。但是，除此之外，特朗普有一個先例可以在言語上發揮作用，以使實際情況完全不同。

As such, keep that in mind when reading into the remarks - not just for Japan, but the entire tariffs saga this time around.

因此，請記住，在閱讀言論時 - 不僅是日本，而且這次的整個關稅。

Now, I don't doubt that there will be a trade deal between the U.S. and Japan. Again, this is supposed to be one of the easiest battles for Trump to claim victory in this tariffs war. However, the details are going to be the key thing.

現在，我毫不懷疑美國和日本之間是否會達成貿易協議。同樣，這應該是特朗普在這場關稅戰爭中贏得勝利的最簡單戰鬥之一。但是，細節將是關鍵。

Japan was slapped with 24% reciprocal tariffs initially, before the pause. Now, they're facing the 10% blanket tariffs and the 25% auto tariffs separately. The question then becomes which tariffs will go away after both sides strike an accord?

在停頓之前，日本最初被24％的互惠關稅打了電話。現在，他們將面臨10％的毛毯關稅和25％的自動關稅。然後，問題將變成雙方達成協議後哪些關稅會消失？

If there is a compromise on other things instead and the 10% tariffs stay the course, that is going to be a tough example for everyone else. While it might seem good that they didn't get hit with tariffs of 24% and "only" got 10%, it's a case of Trump basically hoodwinking the world into believing that is a good thing.

如果其他事情上有妥協，而10％的關稅仍在該課程中，那將是其他所有人的艱難榜樣。雖然他們沒有被24％的關稅和“只有”獲得10％的關稅似乎很不錯，但這是特朗普基本上使世界蒙蔽的情況，因為人們認為這是一件好事。