特朗普的比特币承诺：言辞多于现实

当唐纳德·特朗普承诺建立战略比特币储备并使美国成为“地球的加密货币之都”时，他的言论在加密货币社区引起了轩然大波。比特币飙升至历史新高，达到前所未有的估值。

Donald Trump's statements about creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve and making the United States the "crypto capital of the planet" sent ripples through the cryptocurrency community. As a result, Bitcoin surged past record highs, reaching unprecedented valuations.

唐纳德·特朗普关于建立战略性比特币储备并使美国成为“地球加密货币之都”的声明在加密货币界引起了轩然大波。结果，比特币飙升至历史新高，达到前所未有的估值。

However, despite these bold promises and Trump's newfound embrace of crypto, significant obstacles make it unlikely that his administration will follow through on these plans. Here's an in-depth look at the reasons and paradox why Trump's Bitcoin promises are more rhetoric than reality:

然而，尽管有这些大胆的承诺以及特朗普对加密货币的新拥抱，重大障碍使得他的政府不太可能贯彻这些计划。以下是特朗普的比特币承诺更多是说辞而非现实的原因和悖论的深入探讨：

Bitcoin's decentralized design is inherently at odds with the centralized control the U.S. government wields over the dollar and monetary policy. For Trump and the U.S., the lack of control over Bitcoin would be an unacceptable risk. Establishing a Bitcoin reserve would introduce unmanageable risks, including vulnerability to price manipulation by large holders (whales) and the strategic influence of other nations heavily involved in Bitcoin mining and accumulation.

比特币的去中心化设计本质上与美国政府对美元和货币政策的集中控制相矛盾。对于特朗普和美国来说，缺乏对比特币的控制将是一个不可接受的风险。建立比特币储备将带来难以控制的风险，包括容易受到大持有者（鲸鱼）价格操纵的影响，以及其他积极参与比特币开采和积累的国家的战略影响。

Furthermore, unlike the dollar, Bitcoin does not align well with U.S. financial and regulatory systems. This could create serious vulnerabilities in critical sectors, such as banking and national security. Establishing robust policies, including Anti-Money Laundering (AML) controls, would require extensive regulatory overhauls and could take decades to fully implement and enforce, further complicating its adoption.

此外，与美元不同，比特币与美国的金融和监管体系不太相符。这可能会给银行和国家安全等关键部门带来严重的脆弱性。制定强有力的政策，包括反洗钱（AML）控制措施，需要进行广泛的监管改革，并且可能需要数十年的时间才能完全实施和执行，从而使其采用变得更加复杂。

Bitcoin's strengths also work against its integration into the U.S. economy. For instance, Bitcoin can empower geopolitical rivals like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. These countries have embraced Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as tools to bypass U.S. sanctions and evade international financial restrictions. A U.S. Bitcoin reserve could inadvertently strengthen these adversaries by legitimizing their strategies.

比特币的优势也不利于其融入美国经济。例如，比特币可以赋予俄罗斯、中国、朝鲜和伊朗等地缘政治竞争对手权力。这些国家已经接受比特币和其他加密货币作为绕过美国制裁和国际金融限制的工具。美国的比特币储备可能会通过使这些对手的策略合法化而无意中增强他们的实力。

Moreover, by adopting Bitcoin, the U.S. could inadvertently reduce the effectiveness of the dollar-centric global financial system, which underpins much of its geopolitical power. Rivals would benefit from a decentralized financial system that reduces U.S. control over international transactions.

此外，通过采用比特币，美国可能会无意中降低以美元为中心的全球金融体系的有效性，而该体系是其地缘政治力量的重要基础。竞争对手将从分散的金融体系中受益，该体系减少了美国对国际交易的控制。

The idea of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve raises fundamental questions about its long-term viability and strategic value. Regardless of how the U.S. approaches Bitcoin accumulation, the outcomes offer little to no advantage, and in some scenarios, they could even undermine national security.

美国比特币储备的想法引发了有关其长期可行性和战略价值的根本问题。无论美国如何积累比特币，其结果都几乎没有任何好处，在某些情况下，它们甚至可能损害国家安全。

Let's explore two possible scenarios:

让我们探讨两种可能的情况：

If the U.S. were to accumulate the majority of Bitcoin’s supply, it would effectively centralize control of a currency designed to be decentralized. While this might sound advantageous, it would likely render Bitcoin irrelevant.

如果美国要积累大部分比特币供应，它将有效地集中控制一种旨在去中心化的货币。虽然这听起来可能很有利，但它可能会使比特币变得无关紧要。

Alternatively, if Bitcoin holdings remain decentralized and widely distributed across the globe, the U.S. would have little control over the network or its strategic use. This poses significant issues from a national security perspective.

或者，如果比特币持有量仍然分散并广泛分布在全球范围内，那么美国对该网络或其战略使用几乎没有控制权。从国家安全角度来看，这提出了重大问题。

In either case, the idea of a Bitcoin reserve becomes self-defeating. Dominating Bitcoin undermines its utility and global adoption, while failing to dominate leaves the U.S. vulnerable to a financial system it cannot control. In either case, the strategic purpose of such a reserve becomes questionable, especially when weighed against the costs and risks of accumulating and maintaining Bitcoin at a national level.

无论哪种情况，比特币储备的想法都会弄巧成拙。主导比特币会破坏其效用和全球采用，而未能主导比特币则使美国容易受到其无法控制的金融体系的影响。无论哪种情况，这种储备的战略目的都值得怀疑，特别是考虑到在国家层面积累和维护比特币的成本和风险时。

The concept of a strategic reserve typically involves stockpiling resources essential to national security, such as oil, food, or rare earth metals. These reserves serve practical purposes: they can be consumed, traded for critical goods, or deployed to support national infrastructure. Their value is clear and tangible.

战略储备的概念通常涉及储存对国家安全至关重要的资源，例如石油、食品或稀土金属。这些储备有实际用途：它们可以被消耗、交换关键商品或用于支持国家基础设施。它们的价值是明确且有形的。

Bitcoin, in contrast, offers no clear utility in emergencies. It cannot be consumed, traded for critical goods, or deployed to support national infrastructure. Its primary value lies in speculation and serving as a digital store of wealth, which is not strategically necessary for a government with the world’s largest economy and monetary reserves.

相比之下，比特币在紧急情况下没有明显的效用。它不能被消费、交换关键商品或部署来支持国家基础设施。它的主要价值在于投机和作为财富的数字存储，这对于拥有世界最大经济和货币储备的政府来说没有战略必要。

If the U.S. wanted to diversify its reserves, assets like gold, which has historical precedent and intrinsic value, or investments in cutting-edge technologies, would provide greater security and utility than Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s volatility and lack of intrinsic value make it a poor candidate for this role.

如果美国想要实现储备多元化，像黄金这样具有历史先例和内在价值的资产，或者对尖端技术的投资，将提供比比特币更大的安全性和实用性。比特币的波动性和缺乏内在价值使其不适合担任这一角色。

The U.S. relies heavily on financial sanctions to enforce foreign policy objectives. These sanctions work because the dollar is the global reserve currency, and the U.S. controls critical financial infrastructure, including the SWIFT payment system.

美国严重依赖金融制裁来实现外交政策目标。这些制裁之所以有效，是因为美元是全球储备货币，而美国控制着包括 SWIFT 支付系统在内的关键金融基础设施。

Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it difficult to control or track. A strategic Bitcoin reserve could accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrency by sanctioned entities, undermining U.S. efforts to restrict their financial activity. By reducing reliance on the dollar, adversaries would weaken the effectiveness of U.S.-led sanctions.

比特币的去中心化性质使其难以控制或追踪。战略性比特币储备可能会加速受制裁实体对加密货币的采用，从而破坏美国限制其金融活动的努力。通过减少对美元的依赖，对手将削弱美国主导的制裁的有效性。

Bitcoin's price is notoriously volatile, with frequent swings of 50% or more. If the U.S. were to stockpile Bitcoin, any sharp decline in its value could result in significant financial losses, eroding public trust in government fiscal management. Historical examples, such as the 70% drop in Bitcoin prices between 2021 and 2022, illustrate the risks involved.

众所周知，比特币的价格波动很大，经常波动 50% 或以上。如果美国储存比特币，其价值的任何急剧下跌都可能导致重大财务损失，削弱公众对政府财政管理的信任。历史例子，例如 2021 年至 2022 年间比特币价格下跌 70%，说明了其中涉及的风险。

Moreover, Bitcoin's speculative appeal makes it more suitable for individual investors than for national reserves. Holding such

此外，比特币的投机吸引力使其更适合个人投资者而不是国家储备。持有这样的