川普的比特幣承諾：言論多於現實

當唐納德·川普承諾建立戰略比特幣儲備並使美國成為「地球的加密貨幣之都」時，他的言論在加密貨幣社區引起了軒然大波。比特幣飆升至歷史新高，達到前所未有的估值。

Donald Trump's statements about creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve and making the United States the "crypto capital of the planet" sent ripples through the cryptocurrency community. As a result, Bitcoin surged past record highs, reaching unprecedented valuations.

唐納德·川普關於建立戰略性比特幣儲備並使美國成為「地球加密貨幣之都」的聲明在加密貨幣界引起了軒然大波。結果，比特幣飆升至歷史新高，達到前所未有的估值。

However, despite these bold promises and Trump's newfound embrace of crypto, significant obstacles make it unlikely that his administration will follow through on these plans. Here's an in-depth look at the reasons and paradox why Trump's Bitcoin promises are more rhetoric than reality:

然而，儘管有這些大膽的承諾以及川普對加密貨幣的新擁抱，重大障礙使得他的政府不太可能貫徹這些計劃。以下是川普的比特幣承諾更多是說辭而非現實的原因和悖論的深入探討：

Bitcoin's decentralized design is inherently at odds with the centralized control the U.S. government wields over the dollar and monetary policy. For Trump and the U.S., the lack of control over Bitcoin would be an unacceptable risk. Establishing a Bitcoin reserve would introduce unmanageable risks, including vulnerability to price manipulation by large holders (whales) and the strategic influence of other nations heavily involved in Bitcoin mining and accumulation.

比特幣的去中心化設計本質上與美國政府對美元和貨幣政策的集中控制相矛盾。對於川普和美國來說，缺乏對比特幣的控制將是一個不可接受的風險。建立比特幣儲備將帶來難以控制的風險，包括容易受到大持有者（鯨魚）價格操縱的影響，以及其他積極參與比特幣開採和累積的國家的戰略影響。

Furthermore, unlike the dollar, Bitcoin does not align well with U.S. financial and regulatory systems. This could create serious vulnerabilities in critical sectors, such as banking and national security. Establishing robust policies, including Anti-Money Laundering (AML) controls, would require extensive regulatory overhauls and could take decades to fully implement and enforce, further complicating its adoption.

此外，與美元不同，比特幣與美國的金融和監管體係不太相符。這可能會給銀行和國家安全等關鍵部門帶來嚴重的脆弱性。制定強有力的政策，包括反洗錢（AML）控制措施，需要進行廣泛的監管改革，並且可能需要數十年的時間才能完全實施和執行，從而使其採用變得更加複雜。

Bitcoin's strengths also work against its integration into the U.S. economy. For instance, Bitcoin can empower geopolitical rivals like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. These countries have embraced Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as tools to bypass U.S. sanctions and evade international financial restrictions. A U.S. Bitcoin reserve could inadvertently strengthen these adversaries by legitimizing their strategies.

比特幣的優勢也不利於​​其融入美國經濟。例如，比特幣可以賦予俄羅斯、中國、北韓和伊朗等地緣政治競爭對手權力。這些國家已經接受比特幣和其他加密貨幣作為繞過美國制裁和國際金融限制的工具。美國的比特幣儲備可能會透過使這些對手的策略合法化而無意中增強他們的實力。

Moreover, by adopting Bitcoin, the U.S. could inadvertently reduce the effectiveness of the dollar-centric global financial system, which underpins much of its geopolitical power. Rivals would benefit from a decentralized financial system that reduces U.S. control over international transactions.

此外，透過採用比特幣，美國可能會無意中降低以美元為中心的全球金融體系的有效性，而該體係是其地緣政治力量的重要基礎。競爭對手將從分散的金融體系中受益，該體系減少了美國對國際交易的控制。

The idea of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve raises fundamental questions about its long-term viability and strategic value. Regardless of how the U.S. approaches Bitcoin accumulation, the outcomes offer little to no advantage, and in some scenarios, they could even undermine national security.

美國比特幣儲備的想法引發了有關其長期可行性和戰略價值的根本問題。無論美國如何累積比特幣，其結果幾乎沒有任何好處，在某些情況下，它們甚至可能損害國家安全。

Let's explore two possible scenarios:

讓我們探討兩種可能的情況：

If the U.S. were to accumulate the majority of Bitcoin’s supply, it would effectively centralize control of a currency designed to be decentralized. While this might sound advantageous, it would likely render Bitcoin irrelevant.

如果美國要累積大部分比特幣供應，它將有效地集中控制一種旨在去中心化的貨幣。雖然這聽起來可能很有利，但它可能會使比特幣變得無關緊要。

Alternatively, if Bitcoin holdings remain decentralized and widely distributed across the globe, the U.S. would have little control over the network or its strategic use. This poses significant issues from a national security perspective.

或者，如果比特幣持有量仍然分散並廣泛分佈在全球範圍內，那麼美國對該網路或其戰略使用幾乎沒有控制權。從國家安全角度來看，這提出了重大問題。

In either case, the idea of a Bitcoin reserve becomes self-defeating. Dominating Bitcoin undermines its utility and global adoption, while failing to dominate leaves the U.S. vulnerable to a financial system it cannot control. In either case, the strategic purpose of such a reserve becomes questionable, especially when weighed against the costs and risks of accumulating and maintaining Bitcoin at a national level.

無論哪種情況，比特幣儲備的想法都會弄巧成拙。主導比特幣會破壞其效用和全球採用，而未能主導比特幣則使美國容易受到其無法控制的金融體系的影響。無論哪種情況，這種儲備的戰略目的都值得懷疑，特別是考慮到在國家層級累積和維護比特幣的成本和風險時。

The concept of a strategic reserve typically involves stockpiling resources essential to national security, such as oil, food, or rare earth metals. These reserves serve practical purposes: they can be consumed, traded for critical goods, or deployed to support national infrastructure. Their value is clear and tangible.

戰略儲備的概念通常涉及儲存對國家安全至關重要的資源，例如石油、糧食或稀土金屬。這些儲備有實際用途：它們可以被消耗、交換關鍵商品或用於支援國家基礎設施。它們的價值是明確且有形的。

Bitcoin, in contrast, offers no clear utility in emergencies. It cannot be consumed, traded for critical goods, or deployed to support national infrastructure. Its primary value lies in speculation and serving as a digital store of wealth, which is not strategically necessary for a government with the world’s largest economy and monetary reserves.

相比之下，比特幣在緊急情況下沒有明顯的效用。它不能被消費、交換關鍵商品或部署來支援國家基礎設施。它的主要價值在於投機和作為財富的數位存儲，這對於擁有世界最大經濟和貨幣儲備的政府來說沒有戰略必要。

If the U.S. wanted to diversify its reserves, assets like gold, which has historical precedent and intrinsic value, or investments in cutting-edge technologies, would provide greater security and utility than Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s volatility and lack of intrinsic value make it a poor candidate for this role.

如果美國想要實現儲備多元化，像黃金這樣具有歷史先例和內在價值的資產，或對尖端技術的投資，將提供比比特幣更大的安全性和實用性。比特幣的波動性和缺乏內在價值使其不適合扮演這個角色。

The U.S. relies heavily on financial sanctions to enforce foreign policy objectives. These sanctions work because the dollar is the global reserve currency, and the U.S. controls critical financial infrastructure, including the SWIFT payment system.

美國嚴重依賴金融制裁來實現外交政策目標。這些制裁之所以有效，是因為美元是全球儲備貨幣，而美國控制著包括 SWIFT 支付系統在內的關鍵金融基礎設施。

Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it difficult to control or track. A strategic Bitcoin reserve could accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrency by sanctioned entities, undermining U.S. efforts to restrict their financial activity. By reducing reliance on the dollar, adversaries would weaken the effectiveness of U.S.-led sanctions.

比特幣的去中心化性質使其難以控製或追蹤。戰略性比特幣儲備可能會加速受制裁實體對加密貨幣的採用，從而破壞美國限制其金融活動的努力。透過減少對美元的依賴，對手將削弱美國主導的製裁的有效性。

Bitcoin's price is notoriously volatile, with frequent swings of 50% or more. If the U.S. were to stockpile Bitcoin, any sharp decline in its value could result in significant financial losses, eroding public trust in government fiscal management. Historical examples, such as the 70% drop in Bitcoin prices between 2021 and 2022, illustrate the risks involved.

眾所周知，比特幣的價格波動很大，經常波動 50% 或以上。如果美國儲存比特幣，其價值的任何急劇下跌都可能導致重大財務損失，削弱公眾對政府財政管理的信任。歷史例子，例如 2021 年至 2022 年間比特幣價格下跌 70%，說明了其中涉及的風險。

Moreover, Bitcoin's speculative appeal makes it more suitable for individual investors than for national reserves. Holding such

此外，比特幣的投機吸引力使其更適合個人投資者而不是國家儲備。持有這樣的