Tion：在今年初在达沃斯的世界经济论坛上，没有人敢谈论停滞的潜力，代表停滞和通货膨胀的可怕词，代表停滞和通货膨胀的潜力。

n像数字黄金失败了吗？尽管特朗普的关税和贸易战争，但没有人敢谈论达沃斯的滞水风险

Despite the looming Trump tariff and trade war, no one dared to speak about the potential for stagflation—the dreaded word representing a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation—at the World Economic Forum in Davos early this year.

尽管特朗普的关税和贸易战争迫在眉睫，但在今年年初的世界经济论坛上，没有人敢谈论停滞的潜力（代表停滞和通货膨胀的港口的可怕词）。

However, investors have acknowledged the “s-word” risk, leading to the outperformance of stagflation-linked strategies relative to the buy-and-hold bitcoin and the S&P 500.

但是，投资者已经承认“ S字”风险，导致相对于购买和持有的比特币和标准普尔500的散落型策略的表现要出色。

As of last week, Goldman Sachs’ “stagflation basket,” which bets on strength in commodities and defensive plays like health care and shorts on the consumer discretionary, semiconductors and unprofitable tech stocks, was up nearly 20% for the year..

截至上周，高盛的“停滞篮子”押注商品和防御性戏剧的力量，例如医疗保健和短裤，对消费者的酌处，半导体和无利可图的科技股，这一年都在增长了近20％。

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark equity index, has dropped 4% this year, with bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, down 10%, per data source TradingView and CoinDesk.

标准普尔500标准普尔（S＆P 500），华尔街的基准股票指数今年下降了4％，比特币（按市场价值按市场价值划分的加密货币，每个数据源交易和Coindesk下降了10％。

The International Monetary Fund defines stagflation as a situation where high inflation coincides with economic stagnation, high unemployment and a general decline in economic activity.

国际货币基金组织将停滞定义为高通货膨胀与经济停滞，高失业率和经济活动的总体下降相吻合的情况。

“It does seem like stock and bond prices are adjusting for lower growth and higher inflation [stagflation] - although, there are other factors at work here - healthcare, for instance, is most likely benefitting from the promise of deregulation offsetting direct funding cuts,” Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, told CoinDesk.

“似乎股票和债券价格正在调整较低的增长和较高的通货膨胀[停滞] - 尽管这里还有其他因素正在起作用 - 例如，医疗保健很可能会受益于导管的承诺从直接筹资的承诺中受益，”诺埃尔·阿切森（Noelle Acheson）是Crypto的作者Noelle Acheson是Macro Now Newsletter，告诉Coindletter，Coindletter，Coindletter，Coindletter，Coindletter，CoIndletter。

Stagflation murmurs have been heard since early 2022, but markets have begun pricing the same this year, mainly due to Trump’s tariffs and the escalating trade tensions.

自2022年初以来，已经听到了停滞的杂音，但今年市场已经开始定价，这主要是由于特朗普的关税和不断升级的贸易紧张局势。

Forward-looking inflation metrics like two-year and five-year swaps rose to multi-year highs, a sign of fears of a trade war making consumption pricier. Meanwhile, a key section of the Treasury market yield curve recently flipped into inversion, signaling a recession ahead. Several real-time GDP trackers, like the Atlanta Fed’s GDP, have signaled a sharp contraction in economic activity.

前瞻性通货膨胀指标（如两年和五年掉期）上升到了多年的高点，这表明担心贸易战争更加昂贵。同时，国库市场产量曲线的关键部分最近转向反转，这表明了未来的经济衰退。像亚特兰大美联储的GDP这样的几个实时GDP跟踪器，标志着经济活动的收缩很大。

BTC failed as digital gold?

BTC失败了数字黄金？

A potential stagflation is perfect situation for assets with perceived store of value appeals such as bitcoin to shine. Note that gold has gained 13% this year.

潜在的停滞是具有可感知到的价值吸引力（例如比特币发光）的资产的理想情况。请注意，今年黄金已上涨13％。

However, the bull case in the cryptocurrency propounded by its holders for years hasn't materialized. In fact, BTC's correlation with U.S. stocks has strengthened over the past few weeks.

但是，多年来，其持有人提出的加密货币中的公牛案件尚未实现。实际上，在过去的几周中，BTC与美国股​​票的相关性有所加强。

That does not necessarily mean BTC is no longer a safe haven, according to Noelle Acheson, author of the popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter.

受欢迎的加密现在是Macro Now Newsletter的作者Noelle Acheson表示，这并不一定意味着BTC不再是避风港。

"BTC is short-term a risk asset with prices set by the last short-term trade - long-term, it's a safe haven given its verifiable hard cap and global utility - these days, the market is in a risk-off mood, so macro portfolios are lightening positions, and we have yet to see the new inflows necessary to get the next leg of its run going - this could take some time, as uncertainty is high for both professional investors and retail," Acheson noted.

“ BTC是短期的风险资产，其价格是由上次短期交易设定的价格 - 长期，这是一个避风港，鉴于其可验证的硬上限和全球公用事业 - 如今，市场处于风险中，因此宏观投资组合处于降低状态，我们尚未看到新的流入需要获得的下一个投资，这是一定的投资 - 既可以持续又不确定的时间，这是一个不确定的时间，并且有没有确定的时间。

She explained that tailwinds remain intact and once the market adjusts to the new economic landscape, inflows into the crypto market will likely resume.

她解释说，尾风仍然完好无损，一旦市场适应了新的经济格局，进入加密货币市场的流入可能会恢复。

"The tailwinds remain intact, with education spreading, new institutional services coming online and jurisdictions around the world drawing up regulatory frameworks that institutions will be comfortable with (and through them, mainstream retail)."

“随着教育的传播，新的机构服务将在线上进行，以及世界各地的司法管辖区都建立了机构将适应的监管框架（以及通过它们，主流零售）。”

Stagflation mispricing

停滞错误

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, offered a slightly different take, saying the market is wrong in reading the situation as stagflation.

10倍研究的创始人马库斯·泰伦（Markus Thielen）提供了一个略有不同的收益，称市场在将这种情况视为散落时是错误的。

"What we’re likely seeing is a front-loading of tariff impacts, driving a temporary spike in commodity demand that should fade in the coming months. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding DOGE is weighing on growth expectations," Thielen told CoinDesk.

Thielen告诉Coindesk：“我们可能看到的是关税影响的前部负载，推动商品需求的暂时激增，在未来几个月内应该消失。此外，Doge周围的不确定性正在压制增长期望。”

He added that a potential dovish tone from the Fed later this week could revive a bullish mood in risk assets, including BTC. Last week, Trump halted a plan to double U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and metal imports to 50%. The Fed is set to announce its rate review on Wednesday.

他补充说，本周晚些时候，美联储的潜在肮脏基调可能会使包括BTC在内的风险资产产生看涨的情绪。上周，特朗普停止了一项计划，将美国对加拿大钢和金属进口的关税加倍，达到50％。美联储定于周三宣布其费率审查。

"Recent comments from Trump suggesting a potential softening of aggressive trade policies combined with a possible mildly dovish tone from the Fed this week could set the stage for a rebound in growth-oriented assets. Historically, betting on prolonged stagflations has rarely been a winning strategy over the past 40 years," Thielen noted.

“特朗普的最新评论表明，本周的积极贸易政策的潜在软化加上可能的轻度肮脏的基调，可能会为以增长为导向的资产的反弹奠定基础。历史上，赌注在过去的40年中很少是一项胜利策略，” Thielen指出。”