Tion：在今年初在達沃斯的世界經濟論壇上，沒有人敢談論停滯的潛力，代表停滯和通貨膨脹的可怕詞，代表停滯和通貨膨脹的潛力。

n像數字黃金失敗了嗎？儘管特朗普的關稅和貿易戰爭，但沒有人敢談論達沃斯的滯水風險

Despite the looming Trump tariff and trade war, no one dared to speak about the potential for stagflation—the dreaded word representing a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation—at the World Economic Forum in Davos early this year.

儘管特朗普的關稅和貿易戰爭迫在眉睫，但在今年年初的世界經濟論壇上，沒有人敢談論停滯的潛力（代表停滯和通貨膨脹的港口的可怕詞）。

However, investors have acknowledged the “s-word” risk, leading to the outperformance of stagflation-linked strategies relative to the buy-and-hold bitcoin and the S&P 500.

但是，投資者已經承認“ S字”風險，導致相對於購買和持有的比特幣和標準普爾500的散落型策略的表現要出色。

As of last week, Goldman Sachs’ “stagflation basket,” which bets on strength in commodities and defensive plays like health care and shorts on the consumer discretionary, semiconductors and unprofitable tech stocks, was up nearly 20% for the year..

截至上週，高盛的“停滯籃子”押注商品和防禦性戲劇的力量，例如醫療保健和短褲，對消費者的酌處，半導體和無利可圖的科技股，這一年都在增長了近20％。

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark equity index, has dropped 4% this year, with bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, down 10%, per data source TradingView and CoinDesk.

標準普爾500標準普爾（S＆P 500），華爾街的基準股票指數今年下降了4％，比特幣（按市場價值按市場價值劃分的加密貨幣，每個數據源交易和Coindesk下降了10％。

The International Monetary Fund defines stagflation as a situation where high inflation coincides with economic stagnation, high unemployment and a general decline in economic activity.

國際貨幣基金組織將停滯定義為高通貨膨脹與經濟停滯，高失業率和經濟活動的總體下降相吻合的情況。

“It does seem like stock and bond prices are adjusting for lower growth and higher inflation [stagflation] - although, there are other factors at work here - healthcare, for instance, is most likely benefitting from the promise of deregulation offsetting direct funding cuts,” Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, told CoinDesk.

“似乎股票和債券價格正在調整較低的增長和較高的通貨膨脹[停滯] - 儘管這裡還有其他因素正在起作用 - 例如，醫療保健很可能會受益於導管的承諾從直接籌資的承諾中受益，”諾埃爾·阿切森（Noelle Acheson）是Crypto的作者Noelle Acheson是Macro Now Newsletter，告訴Coindletter，Coindletter，Coindletter，Coindletter，Coindletter，CoIndletter。

Stagflation murmurs have been heard since early 2022, but markets have begun pricing the same this year, mainly due to Trump’s tariffs and the escalating trade tensions.

自2022年初以來，已經聽到了停滯的雜音，但今年市場已經開始定價，這主要是由於特朗普的關稅和不斷升級的貿易緊張局勢。

Forward-looking inflation metrics like two-year and five-year swaps rose to multi-year highs, a sign of fears of a trade war making consumption pricier. Meanwhile, a key section of the Treasury market yield curve recently flipped into inversion, signaling a recession ahead. Several real-time GDP trackers, like the Atlanta Fed’s GDP, have signaled a sharp contraction in economic activity.

前瞻性通貨膨脹指標（如兩年和五年掉期）上升到了多年的高點，這表明擔心貿易戰爭更加昂貴。同時，國庫市場產量曲線的關鍵部分最近轉向反轉，這表明了未來的經濟衰退。像亞特蘭大美聯儲的GDP這樣的幾個實時GDP跟踪器，標誌著經濟活動的收縮很大。

BTC failed as digital gold?

BTC失敗了數字黃金？

A potential stagflation is perfect situation for assets with perceived store of value appeals such as bitcoin to shine. Note that gold has gained 13% this year.

潛在的停滯是具有可感知到的價值吸引力（例如比特幣發光）的資產的理想情況。請注意，今年黃金已上漲13％。

However, the bull case in the cryptocurrency propounded by its holders for years hasn't materialized. In fact, BTC's correlation with U.S. stocks has strengthened over the past few weeks.

但是，多年來，其持有人提出的加密貨幣中的公牛案件尚未實現。實際上，在過去的幾周中，BTC與美國股​​票的相關性有所加強。

That does not necessarily mean BTC is no longer a safe haven, according to Noelle Acheson, author of the popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter.

受歡迎的加密現在是Macro Now Newsletter的作者Noelle Acheson表示，這並不一定意味著BTC不再是避風港。

"BTC is short-term a risk asset with prices set by the last short-term trade - long-term, it's a safe haven given its verifiable hard cap and global utility - these days, the market is in a risk-off mood, so macro portfolios are lightening positions, and we have yet to see the new inflows necessary to get the next leg of its run going - this could take some time, as uncertainty is high for both professional investors and retail," Acheson noted.

“ BTC是短期的風險資產，其價格是由上次短期交易設定的價格 - 長期，這是一個避風港，鑑於其可驗證的硬上限和全球公用事業 - 如今，市場處於風險中，因此宏觀投資組合處於降低狀態，我們尚未看到新的流入需要獲得的下一個投資，這是一定的投資 - 既可以持續又不確定的時間，這是一個不確定的時間，並且有沒有確定的時間。

She explained that tailwinds remain intact and once the market adjusts to the new economic landscape, inflows into the crypto market will likely resume.

她解釋說，尾風仍然完好無損，一旦市場適應了新的經濟格局，進入加密貨幣市場的流入可能會恢復。

"The tailwinds remain intact, with education spreading, new institutional services coming online and jurisdictions around the world drawing up regulatory frameworks that institutions will be comfortable with (and through them, mainstream retail)."

“隨著教育的傳播，新的機構服務將在線上進行，以及世界各地的司法管轄區都建立了機構將適應的監管框架（以及通過它們，主流零售）。”

Stagflation mispricing

停滯錯誤

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, offered a slightly different take, saying the market is wrong in reading the situation as stagflation.

10倍研究的創始人馬庫斯·泰倫（Markus Thielen）提供了一個略有不同的收益，稱市場在將這種情況視為散落時是錯誤的。

"What we’re likely seeing is a front-loading of tariff impacts, driving a temporary spike in commodity demand that should fade in the coming months. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding DOGE is weighing on growth expectations," Thielen told CoinDesk.

Thielen告訴Coindesk：“我們可能看到的是關稅影響的前部負載，推動商品需求的暫時激增，在未來幾個月內應該消失。此外，Doge周圍的不確定性正在壓制增長期望。”

He added that a potential dovish tone from the Fed later this week could revive a bullish mood in risk assets, including BTC. Last week, Trump halted a plan to double U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and metal imports to 50%. The Fed is set to announce its rate review on Wednesday.

他補充說，本週晚些時候，美聯儲的潛在骯髒基調可能會使包括BTC在內的風險資產產生看漲的情緒。上週，特朗普停止了一項計劃，將美國對加拿大鋼和金屬進口的關稅加倍，達到50％。美聯儲定於週三宣布其費率審查。

"Recent comments from Trump suggesting a potential softening of aggressive trade policies combined with a possible mildly dovish tone from the Fed this week could set the stage for a rebound in growth-oriented assets. Historically, betting on prolonged stagflations has rarely been a winning strategy over the past 40 years," Thielen noted.

“特朗普的最新評論表明，本週的積極貿易政策的潛在軟化加上可能的輕度骯髒的基調，可能會為以增長為導向的資產的反彈奠定基礎。歷史上，賭注在過去的40年中很少是一項勝利策略，” Thielen指出。”