南非加密货币玩家热切等待美国大选结果

2024 年美国大选今天举行。民主党人卡马拉·哈里斯（现任副总统）和共和党人唐纳德·特朗普（前总统）

South African crypto-currency players are eagerly awaiting the US election results to see what bearing the outcome will have on the industry. The 2024 US elections are being held today, with Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, having been locked in a close race for months.

南非加密货币参与者热切等待美国大选结果，看看结果将对行业产生什么影响。 2024 年美国大选今天举行，民主党人、现任副总统卡马拉·哈里斯和共和党人、前总统唐纳德·特朗普几个月来一直处于势均力敌的竞争状态。

The crypto industry believes should Trump be victorious, the price of Bitcoin, the world’s most popular digital platform, will shoot up, although the run will be short-lived. Crypto players say a Harris win could see a drop in the price, but it will recover in the short-term.

加密行业认为，如果特朗普获胜，全球最受欢迎的数字平台比特币的价格将会飙升，尽管这种上涨将是短暂的。加密货币玩家表示，哈里斯获胜可能会导致价格下跌，但短期内会恢复。

Christo de Wit, country manager at Luno, says Bitcoin and other digital assets have been volatile, as the price briefly dipped amid broader geopolitical uncertainties, rose and then dipped again. “Crypto investors initially expected a Trump victory and as odds shrank that crypto-friendly Trump would win, the market retracted.”

Luno 的区域经理 Christo de Wit 表示，比特币和其他数字资产一直波动很大，因为价格在更广泛的地缘政治不确定性中短暂下跌，然后上涨，然后再次下跌。 “加密货币投资者最初预计特朗普会获胜，但随着对加密货币友好的特朗普获胜的可能性缩小，市场回落。”

De Wit points put that Luno is currently witnessing an uptick in trading volumes. He adds that yesterday, Bitcoin held around $68 500, showing a muted response to the US elections. It is currently trading at R1 217 502 ($68 375) on Luno.

德维特指出，卢诺目前的交易量正在上升。他补充说，昨天，比特币价格维持在 68,500 美元左右，显示出对美国大选的反应温和。目前它在 Luno 上的交易价格为 R1 217 502（68 375 美元）。

He points out that data from the CF Bitcoin Volatility Index shows a spike in expected volatility after the election, at levels last seen in August, showing potential price swings once results are in. Analysts predict sentiment may shift depending on the election outcome.

他指出，CF 比特币波动率指数的数据显示，大选后预期波动率飙升，达到 8 月份的水平，这表明一旦结果公布，价格可能会出现波动。分析师预测，情绪可能会根据选举结果而发生变化。

“Trump is believed to be more industry-friendly. However, market movements after previous elections have shown the price of crypto rallies no matter who wins, which could point to a significant rally for Bitcoin in about a year if this trend reoccurs.”

“人们认为特朗普对工业界更加友好。然而，之前选举后的市场走势表明，无论谁获胜，加密货币的价格都会上涨，如果这种趋势再次出现，这可能表明比特币将在大约一年内大幅上涨。”

Trump’s Bitcoin about-turn

特朗普的比特币大转变

Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR, comments that for the last seven months, Bitcoin has been trading sideways since it hit an all-time high of $73 600 in March, after climbing from $40 000 at the beginning of 2024.

VALR 联合创始人兼首席执行官 Farzam Ehsani 评论道，自 2024 年初的 40,000 美元攀升至 3 月份触及 73,600 美元的历史高点以来，过去 7 个月里，比特币一直在横盘整理。

He notes that many crypto traders have been waiting for the US elections to conclude before taking any big positions, given the uncertainty of the outcome of the election. “In the last 10 days, though, we saw Bitcoin appreciate to within a few dollars of its previous all-time high, as prediction markets signalled a higher probability of a Trump victory. Trump has been seen to take a much more favourable stance on crypto than Harris,” says Ehsani.

他指出，鉴于选举结果的不确定性，许多加密货币交易者一直在等待美国大选结束，然后再采取任何大额头寸。 “不过，在过去 10 天里，我们看到比特币的涨幅与之前的历史高点相差几美元，因为预测市场表明特朗普获胜的可能性更高。人们认为特朗普对加密货币采取的立场比哈里斯更有利。”Ehsani 说。

“As the presidential race has tightened, the Bitcoin price has moderated and stands at $68 430 at the time of writing.”

“随着总统竞选的激烈，比特币价格有所放缓，在撰写本文时维持在 68,430 美元。”

He adds that Trump has spoken at Bitcoin conventions and promised to establish a “national Bitcoin stockpile” if elected president, signalling his now pro-Bitcoin stance − an about-turn from his anti-Bitcoin position when he was president.

他补充说，特朗普曾在比特币大会上发表讲话，并承诺如果当选总统，将建立“国家比特币储备”，这表明他现在支持比特币的立场——与他担任总统时的反比特币立场发生了转变。

“On VALR and other global crypto exchanges, the highest trading volume this year was in late February and March, when the price of Bitcoin rose close to 50% in three weeks. We haven’t seen those types of volumes since then, but volumes are expected to pick up after the election.”

“在 VALR 和其他全球加密货币交易所，今年交易量最高的是 2 月下旬和 3 月，当时比特币的价格在三周内上涨了近 50%。从那以后我们就没有看到过这种类型的交易量，但预计选举后交易量将会增加。”

He points out that many are expecting a Trump victory to be more favourable for the crypto industry than a Harris win, given their policy positions. “However, no matter the short-term volatility post-elections, I anticipate the price of Bitcoin to climb significantly in 2025, given past crypto cycles, particularly with the expectation that structurally high US deficits will continue regardless of the election outcome, and US national debt will continue to soar. This is likely to result in the US dollar weakening against harder forms of value, including Bitcoin.”

他指出，考虑到他们的政策立场，许多人预计特朗普的胜利比哈里斯的胜利对加密货币行业更有利。 “然而，无论选举后的短期波动如何，考虑到过去的加密货币周期，我预计比特币的价格将在 2025 年大幅攀升，特别是考虑到无论选举结果如何，美国结构性高赤字都将持续下去，而且美国的结构性高赤字将持续下去。国家债务将继续飙升。这可能会导致美元兑包括比特币在内的更硬的价值形式走弱。”

‘Exciting six months’

“令人兴奋的六个月”

David Porter, GM of AltCoinTrader, says the price of Bitcoin has been gradually increasing since lows in August. “It [the price] is now consolidating just shy of all-time-highs, waiting for the right stimulus to push the market into full-blown bull territory.”

AltCoinTrader 总经理 David Porter 表示，比特币的价格自 8 月份的低点以来一直在逐渐上涨。 “它（价格）现在正在巩固接近历史高点，等待合适的刺激措施来推动市场进入全面的牛市区域。”

Like Ehsani, Porter says the general perception in the crypto industry is that a Trump victory would be more positive for crypto prices in the short-term, while a Harris victory may lead to further price consolidation, or even a small slump before the bull market resumes in Q1 2025.

与 Ehsani 一样，波特表示，加密行业的普遍看法是，特朗普的胜利短期内对加密货币价格更加有利，而哈里斯的胜利可能会导致价格进一步盘整，甚至在牛市之前出现小幅下跌将于 2025 年第一季度恢复。

According to Porter, while Bitcoin remains range-bound, trading volumes are fairly muted. “The interesting thing we have noticed is that even though we are approaching all-time highs, we have not yet begun to witness the type of retail hype we have seen in the past.

波特表示，虽然比特币仍处于区间波动，但交易量相当低迷。 “我们注意到的有趣的事情是，尽管我们正在接近历史高点，但我们还没有开始见证过去看到的零售炒作类型。

“It’s almost as if people are unsurprised at Bitcoin’s performance. We think a sustained break above all-time

“人们似乎对比特币的表现并不感到惊讶。我们认为持续突破历史最高水平