南非加密貨幣玩家熱切等待美國大選結果

2024 年美國大選今天舉行。民主黨人卡馬拉·哈里斯（現任副總統）和共和黨人唐納德·特朗普（前總統）

South African crypto-currency players are eagerly awaiting the US election results to see what bearing the outcome will have on the industry. The 2024 US elections are being held today, with Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, having been locked in a close race for months.

南非加密貨幣參與者熱切等待美國大選結果，看看結果將對產業產生什麼影響。 2024 年美國大選今天舉行，民主黨人、現任副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯和共和黨人、前總統唐納德·特朗普幾個月來一直處於勢均力敵的競爭狀態。

The crypto industry believes should Trump be victorious, the price of Bitcoin, the world’s most popular digital platform, will shoot up, although the run will be short-lived. Crypto players say a Harris win could see a drop in the price, but it will recover in the short-term.

加密產業認為，如果川普獲勝，全球最受歡迎的數位平台比特幣的價格將會飆升，儘管這種上漲將是短暫的。加密貨幣玩家表示，哈里斯獲勝可能會導致價格下跌，但短期內會恢復。

Christo de Wit, country manager at Luno, says Bitcoin and other digital assets have been volatile, as the price briefly dipped amid broader geopolitical uncertainties, rose and then dipped again. “Crypto investors initially expected a Trump victory and as odds shrank that crypto-friendly Trump would win, the market retracted.”

Luno 的區域經理 Christo de Wit 表示，比特幣和其他數位資產一直波動很大，因為價格在更廣泛的地緣政治不確定性中短暫下跌，然後上漲，然後再次下跌。 “加密貨幣投資者最初預計川普會獲勝，但隨著對加密貨幣友好的川普獲勝的可能性縮小，市場回落。”

De Wit points put that Luno is currently witnessing an uptick in trading volumes. He adds that yesterday, Bitcoin held around $68 500, showing a muted response to the US elections. It is currently trading at R1 217 502 ($68 375) on Luno.

德維特指出，盧諾目前的交易量正在上升。他補充說，昨天，比特幣價格維持在 68,500 美元左右，顯示出對美國大選的反應溫和。目前它在 Luno 上的交易價格為 R1 217 502（68 375 美元）。

He points out that data from the CF Bitcoin Volatility Index shows a spike in expected volatility after the election, at levels last seen in August, showing potential price swings once results are in. Analysts predict sentiment may shift depending on the election outcome.

他指出，CF 比特幣波動率指數的數據顯示，大選後預期波動性飆升，達到8 月的水平，這表明一旦結果公佈，價格可能會出現波動。變化。

“Trump is believed to be more industry-friendly. However, market movements after previous elections have shown the price of crypto rallies no matter who wins, which could point to a significant rally for Bitcoin in about a year if this trend reoccurs.”

「人們認為川普對工業界更加友善。然而，先前選舉後的市場走勢表明，無論誰獲勝，加密貨幣的價格都會上漲，如果這種趨勢再次出現，這可能表明比特幣將在大約一年內大幅上漲。

Trump’s Bitcoin about-turn

川普的比特幣大轉變

Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR, comments that for the last seven months, Bitcoin has been trading sideways since it hit an all-time high of $73 600 in March, after climbing from $40 000 at the beginning of 2024.

VALR 聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Farzam Ehsani 評論道，自 2024 年初的 40,000 美元攀升至 3 月份觸及 73,600 美元的歷史高點以來，過去 7 個月裡，比特幣一直在橫盤整理。

He notes that many crypto traders have been waiting for the US elections to conclude before taking any big positions, given the uncertainty of the outcome of the election. “In the last 10 days, though, we saw Bitcoin appreciate to within a few dollars of its previous all-time high, as prediction markets signalled a higher probability of a Trump victory. Trump has been seen to take a much more favourable stance on crypto than Harris,” says Ehsani.

他指出，鑑於選舉結果的不確定性，許多加密貨幣交易者一直在等待美國大選結束，然後再採取任何大額部位。 「不過，在過去 10 天裡，我們看到比特幣的漲幅與先前的歷史高點相差幾美元，因為預測市場顯示川普獲勝的可能性更高。人們認為川普對加密貨幣採取的立場比哈里斯更有利。

“As the presidential race has tightened, the Bitcoin price has moderated and stands at $68 430 at the time of writing.”

“隨著總統競選的激烈，比特幣價格有所放緩，在撰寫本文時維持在 68,430 美元。”

He adds that Trump has spoken at Bitcoin conventions and promised to establish a “national Bitcoin stockpile” if elected president, signalling his now pro-Bitcoin stance − an about-turn from his anti-Bitcoin position when he was president.

他補充說，川普曾在比特幣大會上發表講話，並承諾如果當選總統，將建立“國家比特幣儲備”，這表明他現在支持比特幣的立場——與他擔任總統時的反比特幣立場發生了轉變。

“On VALR and other global crypto exchanges, the highest trading volume this year was in late February and March, when the price of Bitcoin rose close to 50% in three weeks. We haven’t seen those types of volumes since then, but volumes are expected to pick up after the election.”

「在 VALR 和其他全球加密貨幣交易所，今年交易量最高的是 2 月下旬和 3 月，當時比特幣的價格在三週內上漲了近 50%。從那以後我們就沒有看到過這種類型的交易量，但預計選舉後交易量將會增加。

He points out that many are expecting a Trump victory to be more favourable for the crypto industry than a Harris win, given their policy positions. “However, no matter the short-term volatility post-elections, I anticipate the price of Bitcoin to climb significantly in 2025, given past crypto cycles, particularly with the expectation that structurally high US deficits will continue regardless of the election outcome, and US national debt will continue to soar. This is likely to result in the US dollar weakening against harder forms of value, including Bitcoin.”

他指出，考慮到他們的政策立場，許多人預計川普的勝利比哈里斯的勝利對加密貨幣行業更有利。 「然而，無論選舉後的短期波動如何，考慮到過去的加密貨幣週期，我預計比特幣的價格將在2025 年大幅攀升，特別是考慮到無論選舉結果如何，美國結構性高赤字都將持續下去，而且美國的結構性高赤字將持續下去。這可能會導緻美元兌包括比特幣在內的更硬的價值形式走弱。

‘Exciting six months’

“令人興奮的六個月”

David Porter, GM of AltCoinTrader, says the price of Bitcoin has been gradually increasing since lows in August. “It [the price] is now consolidating just shy of all-time-highs, waiting for the right stimulus to push the market into full-blown bull territory.”

AltCoinTrader 總經理 David Porter 表示，比特幣的價格自 8 月的低點以來一直在逐漸上漲。 “它（價格）現在正在鞏固接近歷史高點，等待合適的刺激措施來推動市場進入全面的牛市區域。”

Like Ehsani, Porter says the general perception in the crypto industry is that a Trump victory would be more positive for crypto prices in the short-term, while a Harris victory may lead to further price consolidation, or even a small slump before the bull market resumes in Q1 2025.

與 Ehsani 一樣，波特表示，加密行業的普遍看法是，川普的勝利短期內對加密貨幣價格更加有利，而哈里斯的勝利可能會導致價格進一步盤整，甚至在牛市之前出現小幅下跌將於2025 年第一季恢復。

According to Porter, while Bitcoin remains range-bound, trading volumes are fairly muted. “The interesting thing we have noticed is that even though we are approaching all-time highs, we have not yet begun to witness the type of retail hype we have seen in the past.

波特表示，雖然比特幣仍處於區間波動，但交易量相當低迷。 「我們注意到的有趣的事情是，儘管我們正在接近歷史高點，但我們還沒有開始見證過去看到的零售炒作類型。

“It’s almost as if people are unsurprised at Bitcoin’s performance. We think a sustained break above all-time

「人們似乎對比特幣的表現並不感到驚訝。我們認為持續突破歷史最高水平