2025年：区块链监管环境发生巨变的一年

11 月 6 日，我给安永的区块链领导团队写了一份备忘录。标题很简单：“每一个私有区块链都死了。”

2024 was a year of gradual but sustained acceleration in the crypto and blockchain markets. The year started with the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), and just kept accelerating through an Ethereum ETF, and the adoption of the EU’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) legislation. We were on a path of steady, global regulatory convergence, including rules of the road for all the major crypto and digital asset types. We were also on a path towards public blockchains. Bitcoin is a kind of digital gold, and Ethereum is a development platform for digital assets and services. The path may have been consistent, but the pace was measured. It was routine to hear people at big financial institutions tell me that they would love to move to public Ethereum but “the regulators won’t allow it.” On the night of Nov 5 (following the U.S. election), the prospect of substantial regulatory change became a reality. Any certainty about what regulators will or will not allow was suddenly out the window and a clear direction of travel was radical acceleration on public networks. There is no absolute certainty in life, but if I must make predictions about 2025, it is that we will indeed have a seachange in the U.S. regulatory environment, and that will, in turn, bring about a collective global shift in the same direction, though not necessarily at quite the same pace. However, since the U.S. is by far the world’s largest financial market, that counts for a lot. Bitcoin is already a big winner here. It is cementing its place as the digital version of gold, and could in the course of 2025, take up that role officially with countries and governments dipping their toes into strategic bitcoin reserves. My own past prediction was that Bitcoin was likely to continue growing until it reaches the size and market cap of gold, which is currently about $14 trillion. In many ways, Bitcoin is much more attractive as a scarcity-based asset. Higher prices for Bitcoin do not increase the supply, something you cannot say about actual gold. Ethereum will be the second big winner. Ethereum has transitioned smoothly to proof-of-stake, dropping carbon output by >99%, and it has also scaled up massively. The combined Ethereum network (Layer 1 mainnet and Layer 2 networks) has several hundred times the capacity it had during the last bull market. Transaction fees are low and likely to stay that way for some time. Massive scalability, low costs, and an outstanding security, and uptime record are going to make Ethereum the choice for most digital asset issuers. Beyond cryptocurrency, the single biggest boom we’re likely to see in 2025 is likely to be around stablecoin payments. The value proposition and business case for stablecoin payments is already strong. Around the world, users want access to U.S. dollars, particularly for international remittances. Use of dollar stablecoins was already popular with crypto users, but access and use cases are spreading rapidly. Circle works with Nubank in Brazil, for example, to make USDC payments directly accessible to all account holders. Celo, an Ethereum network, has partnered with Opera to put stablecoin payments into Opera’s web browser, which is optimized for low-cost smartphones popular in emerging markets. Celo’s stablecoin transaction volumes have been growing rapidly as a result. Stablecoin payments are reaching into the enterprise sector as well. EY, PayPal and Coinbase have worked with SAP to enable fully automated payments from inside enterprise ERP systems. Now, the same in-system automation that works for bank accounts also works for crypto-rails payments. This is particularly important for enterprise use where processes that cannot be automated at scale have no chance of adoption. When combined with improved privacy tools (and better regulatory treatment of privacy systems), crypto rails look like much lower cost options for enterprise users. 2025 is also likely to be a breakthrough year for decentralized finance (DeFi). DeFi relies on software applications running on-chain to replicate key functions in financial services and banking. Throughout 2024, DeFi was the one area of the crypto ecosystem that saw no real movement on regulatory clarity and, thanks to high real-world interest rates, wasn’t a hugely attractive option. The regulatory environment is likely to be much more favorable for DeFi in 2025 and if interest rates come down, a more aggressive search for incremental yield on-chain could take off. DeFi tools that allow people to loan their assets into liquidity pools and other services in exchange for additional return on the asset (and added risk) might become popular again.

2024 年是加密货币和区块链市场逐步但持续加速的一年。今年始于比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF)，并通过以太坊 ETF 和欧盟加密资产市场 (MiCA) 立法的通过而不断加速。我们正走在稳定的全球监管趋同的道路上，包括所有主要加密货币和数字资产类型的道路规则。我们也走在通往公共区块链的道路上。比特币是一种数字黄金，以太坊是数字资产和服务的开发平台。路径可能是一致的，但步伐是经过衡量的。经常听到大型金融机构的人们告诉我，他们希望转移到公共以太坊，但“监管机构不会允许”。 11 月 5 日晚（美国大选后），重大监管变革的前景成为现实。关于监管机构会或不会允许什么的任何确定性突然消失了，明确的前进方向是公共网络的急剧加速。生活中没有绝对的确定性，但如果我必须对 2025 年做出预测，那就是美国的监管环境确实会发生翻天覆地的变化，而这反过来又会带来全球朝着同一方向的集体转变，尽管不一定以完全相同的速度进行。然而，由于美国是迄今为止世界上最大的金融市场，因此这一点非常重要。比特币已经是这里的大赢家。它正在巩固其作为数字版黄金的地位，并可能在 2025 年随着各国和政府涉足比特币战略储备而正式承担这一角色。我自己过去的预测是，比特币可能会继续增长，直到达到黄金的规模和市值，目前约为 14 万亿美元。在很多方面，比特币作为一种基于稀缺性的资产更具吸引力。比特币价格上涨并不会增加供应量，而对于实际的黄金来说则不能这样说。以太坊将成为第二大赢家。以太坊已顺利过渡到权益证明，碳排放量下降了 99% 以上，而且规模也大幅扩大。合并后的以太坊网络（第 1 层主网和第 2 层网络）的容量是上次牛市期间的数百倍。交易费用很低，并且可能会持续一段时间。大规模的可扩展性、低成本、出色的安全性和正常运行时间记录将使以太坊成为大多数数字资产发行人的选择。除了加密货币之外，我们可能在 2025 年看到的最大繁荣可能是稳定币支付。稳定币支付的价值主张和商业案例已经很强大。在世界各地，用户都希望获得美元，尤其是国际汇款。美元稳定币的使用已经受到加密货币用户的欢迎，但访问和用例正在迅速蔓延。例如，Circle 与巴西的 Nubank 合作，让所有账户持有人都可以直接使用 USDC 付款。以太坊网络 Celo 与 Opera 合作，将稳定币支付引入 Opera 的网络浏览器，该浏览器针对新兴市场流行的低成本智能手机进行了优化。因此，Celo 的稳定币交易量一直在快速增长。稳定币支付也正在进入企业领域。安永、PayPal 和 Coinbase 与 SAP 合作，实现企业 ERP 系统内部的全自动支付。现在，适用于银行账户的相同系统内自动化也适用于加密货币支付。这对于企业使用尤其重要，因为无法大规模自动化的流程就没有机会采用。当与改进的隐私工具（以及对隐私系统更好的监管处理）相结合时，加密货币轨道对于企业用户来说看起来是成本低得多的选择。 2025 年也可能是去中心化金融（DeFi）突破的一年。 DeFi 依靠链上运行的软件应用程序来复制金融服务和银行业的关键功能。整个 2024 年，DeFi 是加密货币生态系统中监管清晰度没有真正变化的一个领域，而且由于现实世界的高利率，它并不是一个极具吸引力的选择。 2025 年的监管环境可能对 DeFi 更加有利，如果利率下降，可能会开始更积极地寻求链上增量收益。允许人们将资产贷入流动性池和其他服务以换取额外资产回报（并增加风险）的 DeFi 工具可能会再次流行。