2025年：區塊鏈監管環境巨變的一年

11 月 6 日，我寫了一份備忘錄給安永的區塊鏈領導團隊。標題很簡單：“每個私有區塊鏈都死了。”

2024 was a year of gradual but sustained acceleration in the crypto and blockchain markets. The year started with the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), and just kept accelerating through an Ethereum ETF, and the adoption of the EU’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) legislation. We were on a path of steady, global regulatory convergence, including rules of the road for all the major crypto and digital asset types. We were also on a path towards public blockchains. Bitcoin is a kind of digital gold, and Ethereum is a development platform for digital assets and services. The path may have been consistent, but the pace was measured. It was routine to hear people at big financial institutions tell me that they would love to move to public Ethereum but “the regulators won’t allow it.” On the night of Nov 5 (following the U.S. election), the prospect of substantial regulatory change became a reality. Any certainty about what regulators will or will not allow was suddenly out the window and a clear direction of travel was radical acceleration on public networks. There is no absolute certainty in life, but if I must make predictions about 2025, it is that we will indeed have a seachange in the U.S. regulatory environment, and that will, in turn, bring about a collective global shift in the same direction, though not necessarily at quite the same pace. However, since the U.S. is by far the world’s largest financial market, that counts for a lot. Bitcoin is already a big winner here. It is cementing its place as the digital version of gold, and could in the course of 2025, take up that role officially with countries and governments dipping their toes into strategic bitcoin reserves. My own past prediction was that Bitcoin was likely to continue growing until it reaches the size and market cap of gold, which is currently about $14 trillion. In many ways, Bitcoin is much more attractive as a scarcity-based asset. Higher prices for Bitcoin do not increase the supply, something you cannot say about actual gold. Ethereum will be the second big winner. Ethereum has transitioned smoothly to proof-of-stake, dropping carbon output by >99%, and it has also scaled up massively. The combined Ethereum network (Layer 1 mainnet and Layer 2 networks) has several hundred times the capacity it had during the last bull market. Transaction fees are low and likely to stay that way for some time. Massive scalability, low costs, and an outstanding security, and uptime record are going to make Ethereum the choice for most digital asset issuers. Beyond cryptocurrency, the single biggest boom we’re likely to see in 2025 is likely to be around stablecoin payments. The value proposition and business case for stablecoin payments is already strong. Around the world, users want access to U.S. dollars, particularly for international remittances. Use of dollar stablecoins was already popular with crypto users, but access and use cases are spreading rapidly. Circle works with Nubank in Brazil, for example, to make USDC payments directly accessible to all account holders. Celo, an Ethereum network, has partnered with Opera to put stablecoin payments into Opera’s web browser, which is optimized for low-cost smartphones popular in emerging markets. Celo’s stablecoin transaction volumes have been growing rapidly as a result. Stablecoin payments are reaching into the enterprise sector as well. EY, PayPal and Coinbase have worked with SAP to enable fully automated payments from inside enterprise ERP systems. Now, the same in-system automation that works for bank accounts also works for crypto-rails payments. This is particularly important for enterprise use where processes that cannot be automated at scale have no chance of adoption. When combined with improved privacy tools (and better regulatory treatment of privacy systems), crypto rails look like much lower cost options for enterprise users. 2025 is also likely to be a breakthrough year for decentralized finance (DeFi). DeFi relies on software applications running on-chain to replicate key functions in financial services and banking. Throughout 2024, DeFi was the one area of the crypto ecosystem that saw no real movement on regulatory clarity and, thanks to high real-world interest rates, wasn’t a hugely attractive option. The regulatory environment is likely to be much more favorable for DeFi in 2025 and if interest rates come down, a more aggressive search for incremental yield on-chain could take off. DeFi tools that allow people to loan their assets into liquidity pools and other services in exchange for additional return on the asset (and added risk) might become popular again.

2024 年是加密貨幣和區塊鏈市場逐步但持續加速的一年。今年始於比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF)，並透過以太坊 ETF 和歐盟加密資產市場 (MiCA) 立法的通過而不斷加速。我們正走在穩定的全球監管趨同的道路上，包括所有主要加密貨幣和數位資產類型的道路規則。我們也走在通往公共區塊鏈的道路上。比特幣是一種數位黃金，以太坊是數位資產和服務的開發平台。路徑可能是一致的，但步伐是經過衡量的。經常聽到大型金融機構的人們告訴我，他們希望轉移到公共以太坊，但「監管機構不會允許」。 11 月 5 日晚間（美國大選後），重大監管變革的前景成為現實。關於監管機構會或不會允許什麼的任何確定性突然消失了，明確的前進方向是公共網路的急劇加速。生活中沒有絕對的確定性，但如果我必須對 2025 年做出預測，那就是美國的監管環境確實會發生翻天覆地的變化，而這反過來又會帶來全球朝著同一方向的集體轉變，儘管不一定以完全相同的速度進行。然而，由於美國是迄今為止世界上最大的金融市場，因此這一點非常重要。比特幣已經是這裡的大贏家。它正在鞏固其作為數位版黃金的地位，並可能在 2025 年隨著各國和政府涉足比特幣戰略儲備而正式承擔這一角色。我自己過去的預測是，比特幣可能會繼續成長，直到達到黃金的規模和市值，目前約為 14 兆美元。在很多方面，比特幣作為一種基於稀缺性的資產更具吸引力。比特幣價格上漲並不會增加供應量，而對於實際的黃金來說則不能這麼說。以太坊將成為第二大贏家。以太坊已順利過渡到權益證明，碳排放量下降了 99% 以上，規模也大幅擴大。合併後的以太坊網路（第 1 層主網和第 2 層網路）的容量是上次牛市期間的數百倍。交易費用很低，並且可能會持續一段時間。大規模的可擴展性、低成本、出色的安全性和正常運行時間記錄將使以太坊成為大多數數位資產發行人的選擇。除了加密貨幣之外，我們可能在 2025 年看到的最大繁榮可能是穩定幣支付。穩定幣支付的價值主張和商業案例已經很強大。在世界各地，用戶都希望獲得美元，尤其是國際匯款。美元穩定幣的使用已經受到加密貨幣用戶的歡迎，但訪問和用例正在迅速蔓延。例如，Circle 與巴西的 Nubank 合作，讓所有帳戶持有人都可以直接使用 USDC 付款。以太坊網路 Celo 與 Opera 合作，將穩定幣支付引入 Opera 的網路瀏覽器，該瀏覽器針對新興市場流行的低成本智慧型手機進行了最佳化。因此，Celo 的穩定幣交易量一直在快速成長。穩定幣支付也正在進入企業領域。安永、PayPal 和 Coinbase 與 SAP 合作，實現企業 ERP 系統內部的全自動支付。現在，適用於銀行帳戶的相同系統內自動化也適用於加密貨幣支付。這對於企業使用尤其重要，因為無法大規模自動化的流程就沒有機會採用。當與改進的隱私工具（以及對隱私系統更好的監管處理）相結合時，加密貨幣軌道對於企業用戶來說看起來是成本低得多的選擇。 2025 年也可能是去中心化金融（DeFi）突破的一年。 DeFi 依靠鏈上運行的軟體應用程式來複製金融服務和銀行業的關鍵功能。在整個 2024 年，DeFi 是加密貨幣生態系統中監管清晰度沒有真正變化的領域，而且由於現實世界的高利率，它並不是一個極具吸引力的選擇。 2025 年的監管環境可能對 DeFi 更加有利，如果利率下降，可能會開始更積極地尋求鏈上增量收益。允許人們將資產貸入流動性池和其他服務以換取額外資產回報（並增加風險）的 DeFi 工具可能會再次流行。