为什么这位老派价值投资者看好比特币并目标到 2030 年达到 100 万美元

特许金融分析师 Taesik Yoon 担任《福布斯特殊情况调查》和《福布斯投资者》编辑超过十四年。

Bitcoin’s breathtaking 2024 performance and its rise above $100,000 has captured the world’s attention. Here’s why one card-carrying value investor is bullish on the volatile digital asset.

比特币在 2024 年的惊人表现及其突破 10 万美元的价格吸引了全世界的关注。这就是为什么一位真正的价值投资者看好这种不稳定的数字资产的原因。

My first trip to Las Vegas is one I remember very fondly. I was only about a year out of college when my best friend offered me a free flight to go with him for a few days. We stayed at the Hard Rock Casino, which was off the Strip at the time and exactly the kind of place where someone my age would want to be at with its party-like atmosphere, smaller and more intimate table gaming pit than the bigger casinos on the Strip, and some of the most generous comps.

我对第一次拉斯维加斯之旅记忆犹新。当我大学毕业大约一年时，我最好的朋友为我提供了免费航班，可以和他一起去几天。我们住在硬石赌场，当时它位于拉斯维加斯大道外，正是我这个年纪的人想要去的地方，那里有派对般的氛围，比拉斯维加斯更大的赌场更小、更私密的赌台。拉斯维加斯大道，以及一些最慷慨的赠品。

Even 27 years later, this experience remains fresh in my mind. I can recall playing blackjack for hours. We started at $10 minimum bet tables. But a lucky streak early on had us quickly progressing to bigger bets per hand. I won about $1,700 my first two days there. On the third day, our fortunes turned. By the evening, my friend went from being up a few hundred to being down $750. Frustration set in and he decided to head to bed early.

即使27年过去了，这段经历仍然让我记忆犹新。我记得玩了几个小时的二十一点。我们的最低赌注为 10 美元。但早期的幸运连胜让我们很快就获得了每手牌更大的赌注。在那里的头两天我赢了大约 1,700 美元。第三天，我们的命运发生了转变。到了晚上，我的朋友从上涨了几百美元变成了下跌 750 美元。沮丧袭来，他决定早点上床睡觉。

I fared even worse with my $1,700 gain whittled down to just $300. But unlike my friend, I wasn’t done. Losing that much money had left such a bad taste in my mouth that I took the $300 I was still up, saw a $100 minimum table with no one there and said, why not? With luck back on my side, I turned that $300 into $3,000 in less than 20 minutes. In all, I came home having won about $3,600. For a 23-year-old living in New York City in the late 90s, this was a lot of money.

我的表现更糟，我的 1,700 美元收益减少到了 300 美元。但与我的朋友不同的是，我还没有完成。输了那么多钱让我心里很不好受，所以我拿着还没睡的 300 美元，看到一张最低 100 美元的桌子，里面没有人，我就说，为什么不呢？幸运的是，我在不到 20 分钟的时间内将 300 美元变成了 3,000 美元。总而言之，我回家时赢得了大约 3,600 美元。对于一个 90 年代末生活在纽约市的 23 岁年轻人来说，这是一笔很大的钱。

I bring this up because it’s often the first experience that shapes your view. My first trip to Vegas was about as good as it gets for someone in my circumstance back then. I had no fear of betting way outside my means because of the incredible luck I was enjoying and because I didn’t know any better. When you’re young, you haven’t accumulated enough life lessons to realize how reckless it is to bet $100 a hand when you only have $700 in the bank.

我提出这一点是因为它通常是塑造你观点的第一次经历。我第一次去维加斯的旅行对于当时处于我这种情况的人来说是最好的。我并不担心投注超出我的能力范围，因为我享受着令人难以置信的运气，而且因为我不知道更好的事情。当你年轻的时候，你还没有积累足够的人生教训，无法意识到当你的银行存款只有 700 美元时，一手下注 100 美元是多么鲁莽。

The same is true with investing in stocks. My first introduction to doing so came when I began working at Forbes, which just happened to be at the height of the Dot-com bubble in early 2000. Among the stocks recommended by my department in the six months prior to my arrival were eToys, VerticalNet and Healtheon, which took advantage of the insatiable demand for anything related to the Internet, whether a new website or a business that facilitated growth in its infrastructure. Those three gained 66%, 92% and 99%, respectively, in just two months, two-and-a-half months and three months. And the biggest beneficiary of this madness, Qualcomm, saw its stock soar something like 2,600% in the prior year. That’s not a typo.

投资股票也是如此。我第一次接触到这样做是在我开始在《福布斯》工作时，当时正值 2000 年初网络泡沫的高峰期。在我到来之前的六个月里，我的部门推荐的股票中有 eToys， VerticalNet 和 Healtheon，利用了对与互联网相关的任何事物的永不满足的需求，无论是新网站还是促进其基础设施增长的业务。这三者在短短两个月、两个半月和三个月内分别上涨了 66%、92% 和 99%。高通公司是这种疯狂行为的最大受益者，去年其股价飙升了约 2,600%。这不是一个错字。

By then, I had some money saved and opened my first brokerage account. Timing-wise, it couldn’t have been worse as that was right around when the web/tech wreck began. Two of the first stocks I purchased were ones that were recommended by our department during my first three months here, Net Perceptions and Wind River Systems, neither of which exist anymore. I can’t even recall what they did. What remains crystal clear, however, is the fact that I rode them all the way down the market slump that followed, ultimately losing 75-80% on these holdings. That was my baptism by fire and a sobering reminder that I knew nothing about buying stocks and really had no business doing so at that point.

那时，我已经存了一些钱，并开设了我的第一个经纪账户。从时间上来看，情况再糟糕不过了，因为那是在网络/技术灾难开始的时候。我购买的第一批股票中有两只是我入职前三个月期间我们部门推荐的股票，Net Perceptions 和 Wind River Systems，但现在这两家公司都已经不存在了。我什至不记得他们做了什么。然而，仍然清晰可见的是，我在随后的市场低迷中一路驾驭着它们，最终损失了这些持股的 75-80%。这是我经历的一次火的洗礼，也是一次发人深省的提醒：我对购买股票一无所知，而且当时确实没有必要这样做。

This would change in the years that followed as I went through the CFA program, became a stock analyst, and gained experience hunting for bargains in virtually every sector and industry that exists. But the poor experience from my first foray buying stocks never left me. I lost a lot of money on the two losers noted above because I—like so many others at the time—bought into the hype.

在接下来的几年里，随着我完成了 CFA 课程、成为一名股票分析师，并获得了在几乎每个现有部门和行业中寻找便宜货的经验，这种情况发生了变化。但我第一次购买股票时的糟糕经历从未离开过我。我在上述两个失败者身上损失了很多钱，因为我——像当时的许多人一样——相信了炒作。

Shaped by this initial experience, as well as the value-oriented strategy associated with the stock recommending services I worked for, I avoided as much market hype as I could. Instead, I studied Warren Buffett, read Securities Analysis by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd (still considered the bible of fundamental analysis), and began primarily buying shares of companies selling at deep discounts to what I believed they were actually worth based on my research and analysis. In other words, I became a full-fledged value investor.

在这种最初的经验以及与我所从事的股票推荐服务相关的价值导向策略的影响下，我尽可能避免了市场炒作。相反，我研究了沃伦·巴菲特，阅读了本杰明·格雷厄姆和大卫·多德的《证券分析》（仍然被认为是基本面分析的圣经），并开始主要购买那些以大幅折扣出售的公司股票，这些股票的售价比我根据我的研究和研究认为的实际价值低得多。分析。换句话说，我成为了一名成熟的价值投资者。

This meant I sought out companies with

这意味着我寻找的公司