為什麼這位老派價值投資者看好比特幣並目標在 2030 年達到 100 萬美元

特許金融分析師 Taesik Yoon 擔任《富比士特殊情況調查》和《富比士》投資者》編輯超過十四年。

Bitcoin’s breathtaking 2024 performance and its rise above $100,000 has captured the world’s attention. Here’s why one card-carrying value investor is bullish on the volatile digital asset.

比特幣在 2024 年的驚人表現及其突破 10 萬美元的價格吸引了全世界的注意。這就是為什麼一位真正的價值投資者看好這種不穩定的數位資產的原因。

My first trip to Las Vegas is one I remember very fondly. I was only about a year out of college when my best friend offered me a free flight to go with him for a few days. We stayed at the Hard Rock Casino, which was off the Strip at the time and exactly the kind of place where someone my age would want to be at with its party-like atmosphere, smaller and more intimate table gaming pit than the bigger casinos on the Strip, and some of the most generous comps.

我對第一次拉斯維加斯之旅記憶猶新。當我大學畢業大約一年時，我最好的朋友為我提供了免費航班，可以和他一起去幾天。我們住在硬石賭場，當時它位於拉斯維加斯大道外，正是我這個年紀的人想要去的地方，那裡有派對般的氛圍，比拉斯維加斯更大的賭場更小、更私密的賭台。

Even 27 years later, this experience remains fresh in my mind. I can recall playing blackjack for hours. We started at $10 minimum bet tables. But a lucky streak early on had us quickly progressing to bigger bets per hand. I won about $1,700 my first two days there. On the third day, our fortunes turned. By the evening, my friend went from being up a few hundred to being down $750. Frustration set in and he decided to head to bed early.

即使27年過去了，這段經歷仍讓我記憶猶新。我記得玩了幾個小時的二十一點。我們的最低賭注為 10 美元。但早期的幸運連勝讓我們很快就獲得了每手牌更大的賭注。在那裡的頭兩天我贏了大約 1,700 美元。第三天，我們的命運發生了轉變。到了晚上，我的朋友從上漲了幾百美元變成了下跌 750 美元。沮喪襲來，他決定早點上床睡覺。

I fared even worse with my $1,700 gain whittled down to just $300. But unlike my friend, I wasn’t done. Losing that much money had left such a bad taste in my mouth that I took the $300 I was still up, saw a $100 minimum table with no one there and said, why not? With luck back on my side, I turned that $300 into $3,000 in less than 20 minutes. In all, I came home having won about $3,600. For a 23-year-old living in New York City in the late 90s, this was a lot of money.

我的表現更糟，我的 1,700 美元收益減少到了 300 美元。但與我的朋友不同的是，我還沒完成。輸了那麼多錢讓我心裡很不好受，所以我拿著還沒睡的 300 美元，看到一張最低 100 美元的桌子，裡面沒有人，我就說，為什麼不呢？幸運的是，我在不到 20 分鐘的時間內將 300 美元變成了 3,000 美元。總而言之，我回家時贏得了大約 3,600 美元。對於一個 90 年代末生活在紐約市的 23 歲年輕人來說，這是一筆很大的錢。

I bring this up because it’s often the first experience that shapes your view. My first trip to Vegas was about as good as it gets for someone in my circumstance back then. I had no fear of betting way outside my means because of the incredible luck I was enjoying and because I didn’t know any better. When you’re young, you haven’t accumulated enough life lessons to realize how reckless it is to bet $100 a hand when you only have $700 in the bank.

我提出這一點是因為它通常是塑造你觀點的第一次經驗。我第一次去維加斯的旅行對於當時處於我這種情況的人來說是最好的。我並不擔心投注超出我的能力範圍，因為我享受著令人難以置信的運氣，而且因為我不知道更好的事情。當你年輕的時候，你還沒有累積足夠的人生教訓，無法意識到當你的銀行存款只有 700 美元時，一手下注 100 美元是多麼魯莽。

The same is true with investing in stocks. My first introduction to doing so came when I began working at Forbes, which just happened to be at the height of the Dot-com bubble in early 2000. Among the stocks recommended by my department in the six months prior to my arrival were eToys, VerticalNet and Healtheon, which took advantage of the insatiable demand for anything related to the Internet, whether a new website or a business that facilitated growth in its infrastructure. Those three gained 66%, 92% and 99%, respectively, in just two months, two-and-a-half months and three months. And the biggest beneficiary of this madness, Qualcomm, saw its stock soar something like 2,600% in the prior year. That’s not a typo.

投資股票也是如此。我第一次接觸到這樣做是在我開始在《福布斯》工作時，當時正值 2000 年初網絡泡沫的高峰期。 VerticalNet 和Healtheon，利用了對與互聯網相關的任何事物的永不滿足的需求，無論是新網站還是促進其基礎設施成長的業務。這三者在短短兩個月、兩個半月和三個月內分別上漲了 66%、92% 和 99%。高通是這種瘋狂行為的最大受益者，去年其股價飆升了約 2,600%。這不是一個錯字。

By then, I had some money saved and opened my first brokerage account. Timing-wise, it couldn’t have been worse as that was right around when the web/tech wreck began. Two of the first stocks I purchased were ones that were recommended by our department during my first three months here, Net Perceptions and Wind River Systems, neither of which exist anymore. I can’t even recall what they did. What remains crystal clear, however, is the fact that I rode them all the way down the market slump that followed, ultimately losing 75-80% on these holdings. That was my baptism by fire and a sobering reminder that I knew nothing about buying stocks and really had no business doing so at that point.

那時，我已經存了一些錢，並開設了我的第一個經紀帳戶。從時間上來看，情況再糟糕不過了，因為那是在網路/科技災難開始的時候。我買的第一批股票中有兩隻是我入職前三個月期間我們部門推薦的股票，Net Perceptions 和 Wind River Systems，但現在這兩家公司都已經不存在了。我甚至不記得他們做了什麼。然而，仍然清晰可見的是，我在隨後的市場低迷中一路駕馭著它們，最終損失了這些持股的 75-80%。這是我經歷過的一次火的洗禮，也是一次發人深省的提醒：我對買股票一無所知，而且當時確實沒有必要這麼做。

This would change in the years that followed as I went through the CFA program, became a stock analyst, and gained experience hunting for bargains in virtually every sector and industry that exists. But the poor experience from my first foray buying stocks never left me. I lost a lot of money on the two losers noted above because I—like so many others at the time—bought into the hype.

在接下來的幾年裡，隨著我完成了 CFA 課程、成為股票分析師，並獲得了在幾乎每個現有部門和行業中尋找便宜貨的經驗，這種情況發生了變化。但我第一次買股票時的糟糕經驗從未離開過我。我在上述兩個失敗者身上損失了很多錢，因為我——像當時的許多人一樣——相信了炒作。

Shaped by this initial experience, as well as the value-oriented strategy associated with the stock recommending services I worked for, I avoided as much market hype as I could. Instead, I studied Warren Buffett, read Securities Analysis by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd (still considered the bible of fundamental analysis), and began primarily buying shares of companies selling at deep discounts to what I believed they were actually worth based on my research and analysis. In other words, I became a full-fledged value investor.

在這種最初的經驗以及與我所從事的股票推薦服務相關的價值導向策略的影響下，我盡可能避免了市場炒作。相反，我研究了沃倫·巴菲特，閱讀了本傑明·格雷厄姆和大衛·多德的《證券分析》（仍然被認為是基本面分析的聖經），並開始主要購買那些以大幅折扣出售的公司股票，這些股票的售價比我根據我的研究和研究認為的實際價值低得多。換句話說，我成為了一個成熟的價值投資者。

This meant I sought out companies with

這意味著我尋找的公司