2024年回报和波动性

如果比特币确实是一个全新的资产类别，那么我们必须将其回报与其他资产类别进行比较。比特币在2024年返回了113％以上

Bitcoin performed exceptionally well in 2024, outpacing other major asset classes in terms of returns. However, it is important to consider both returns and risk when evaluating an investment. Traditional finance measures risk by volatility, which is the fluctuation in the asset's price.

比特币在2024年表现出色，在收益方面超过了其他主要资产类别。但是，在评估投资时要考虑回报和风险很重要。传统的金融量通过波动率衡量风险，这是资产价格的波动。

When plotting annualized volatility against returns, we observe a linear relationship for bitcoin, equities, gold, and bonds. This is known as the "capital market line," which shows the additional return required to compensate for increased risk. Real estate, on the other hand, deviated from this pattern due to its poor performance (high risk, low returns).

当绘制年度波动率与回报时，我们会观察到比特币，股票，黄金和债券的线性关系。这被称为“资本市场线”，它显示了弥补风险增加所需的额外回报。另一方面，由于其性能差（高风险，低收益），房地产偏离了这种模式。

This analysis reveals that bitcoin is offering a new option for investors seeking higher risk and higher returns, within the context of the capital market line. However, it does not address the fundamental question of how much risk investors should tolerate, which varies based on individual preferences.

该分析表明，在资本市场线的背景下，比特币为寻求更高风险和更高回报的投资者提供了一种新选择。但是，它没有解决投资者应容忍多少风险的基本问题，这取决于个人偏好。

Historically, equities have been classified as risky and bonds as safe. With the addition of bitcoin to the map, equities now appear safe in comparison. Another way to interpret this chart is that traditional measures of returns calculate only nominal returns, not real returns (returns after inflation). When factoring out the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, government bonds and real estate actually earned negative real returns.

从历史上看，股票已被归类为风险，债券安全。随着地图上增加了比特币，相比之下，股票现在看起来很安全。解释此图表的另一种方法是，传统的回报度量仅计算名义回报，而不是实际回报（通货膨胀后的回报）。当考虑美元贬值时，政府债券和房地产实际上会赢得负面的回报。

Is volatility a problem?

波动性问题吗？

For 2024 at least, the returns from Bitcoin exceeded the other assets so much that it forces an uncomfortable question: How much does volatility really matter? And to whom? And when?

至少在2024年，比特币的回报超过了其他资产，以至于迫使一个不舒服的问题：波动性真正重要多少？和谁？什么时候？

The traditional assumption in financial markets is that investors are risk-averse, and therefore dislike volatility at all costs. But the question remains: At what price? If the investor has a long enough horizon, sacrificing return for volatility would be a mistake. Volatility should not matter in the long term. Said differently, volatility only matters in the short term because it could lead to a loss of capital if you sell. In the long term, the real loss of capital is an opportunity cost: the foregone returns from NOT investing in the highest-return asset. So, volatility is a feature, not a bug, for the long-term investor.

金融市场的传统假设是投资者规避风险，因此不惜一切代价不喜欢波动。但是问题仍然是：价格是多少？如果投资者的视野足够长，那么牺牲波动的回报将是一个错误。从长远来看，波动率应该无关紧要。说不同的是，波动性仅在短期内重要，因为如果您出售，它可能会导致资本损失。从长远来看，真正的资本损失是一个机会成本：不投资最高回报资产的收益。因此，对于长期投资者而言，波动率不是错误的功能。

Value investors like Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet, and Charles Brandes knew about the problem of using volatility to measure risk. Volatility ultimately doesn’t distinguish between directional movements in price. An asset with strong fundamentals whose price falls registers a high volatility, but that can be less risky for the investor because of a lower purchase price. This is as true for undervalued businesses as it was for bitcoin during the last bear market, when it dipped below $20,000.

Benjamin Graham，Warren Buffet和Charles Brandes等价值投资者知道使用波动率来衡量风险的问题。波动性最终无法区分价格的定向运动。具有强大基本原理的资产，其价格下跌的记录很高，但由于购买价格较低，这对投资者而言可能会降低。对于被低估的企业来说，这与在最后一个熊市中的比特币一样，当时它跌至20,000美元以下时，这也是如此。

There are, of course, some caveats in place. The new Trump administration has articulated a more favorable regulatory regime towards cryptocurrencies, and bitcoin's drawdowns in down years can be high, upwards of -70% historically. But 2024 was the year to bear risk, and bitcoin's return proves that thesis.

当然有一些警告。新的特朗普政府表达了对加密货币的更有利的监管制度，而在历史上，比特币在下降的年份可能很高，历史上高达-70％。但是2024年是承担风险的一年，比特币的回报证明了这一论文。