Vaneck Research表明，战略比特币储备几乎不会很快偿还美国债务

该研究基于美国财政部在五年内收集一百万个比特币并持有20年的想法。

VanEck, an investment management company, has released a tool that showcases the potential impact of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on the U.S. debt at specified conditions. The tool allows users to set the number of bitcoins purchased by the government annually, the average price at which bitcoins are being bought in 2025, and the average compound growth rate of the BTC price and U.S. debt.

投资管理公司Vaneck发布了一种工具，可以在指定条件下展示战略比特币储备对美国债务的潜在影响。该工具允许用户设置政府每年购买的比特币数量，2025年购买比特币的平均价格以及BTC价格和美国债务的平均复合增长率。

The calculator is based on VanEck research outlining how soon the debt may be offset by the BTC reserve at the set parameters, such as the BTC price, etc. It’s worth noting that the research assumes that the Bitcoin Act introduced by Lummis is getting adopted this year without serious changes.

该计算器基于Vaneck研究，概述了以固定参数（例如BTC价格等）的BTC储备可以抵消债务的时间。一年没有严重的改变。

The research page contains a disclaimer that the calculations are based on past trends and don’t necessarily reflect the future Bitcoin value or the national debt amount.

该研究页面包含一个免责声明，即计算是基于过去趋势，不一定反映未来的比特币价值或国家债务金额。

The research is based on the idea of the U.S. treasury collecting a million bitcoins in five years and holding them for 20 years. According to the act, during the 20 years, the bitcoins held in treasury could only be spent to cover the national debt.

该研究基于美国财政部在五年内收集一百万个比特币并持有20年的想法。根据该法，在20年中，在财政部中持有的比特币只能用于支付国债。

Based on VanEck research made in December 2024, the U.S. will amass one million bitcoins by 2049. The total value of these bitcoins will amount to $21 trillion and will offset around 18% of the national debt, which will reach around $116 trillion by 2029, according to VanEck.

根据2024年12月的Vaneck研究，美国将到2049年积累100万比特币。这些比特币的总价值将达到21万亿美元，并将抵消约18％的国家债务，到2029年，这将达到约116万亿美元根据Vaneck。

These figures will be correct at specific average compound growth rates of U.S. debt and BTC price. VanEck researchers assume national debt will be growing by 5% per year, going from the current $36 trillion evaluation to $116 trillion in 2049. VanEck predicts that, on average, BTC value will be growing by 25% each year, increasing from nearly $100,000 to $21 billion per coin in 2049 when the federal bitcoins are no longer barred from selling.

这些数字将以美国债务和BTC价格的特定平均复合增长率正确。 Vaneck研究人员认为，国家债务每年将增长5％，从目前的36万亿美元评估到2049年的116万亿美元。Vaneck预测，平均而言，BTC的价值每年增长25％，从近100,000美元增加到2049年，每枚硬币210亿美元，当时联邦比特币不再被禁止出售。

The government may amass more than one million bitcoins as it may accumulate additional coins through seizing, donations, and other ways.

政府可能会积聚超过一百万个比特币，因为它可能通过扣押，捐赠和其他方式积累其他硬币。

All in all, VanEck research indicates that Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will hardly pay off U.S. debt anytime soon which is in line with what Lummis claimed in July 2024 when she was talking about reducing the debt, not covering it.

总而言之，Vaneck Research表明，战略比特币储备几乎不会很快还清美国债务，这与Lummis在2024年7月谈论减少债务而没有支付债务时声称的债务一致。

To fully pay off the national debt (if the growth rates are correct), the government will need to purchase over five million bitcoins.

为了充分偿还国家债务（如果增长率正确），政府将需要购买超过500万比特币。

In August of 2024, in an interview broadcast on Fox, Donald Trump assumed that Bitcoin would probably pay off trillions of U.S. debt.

2024年8月，在福克斯（Fox）的一次采访中，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）认为比特币可能还清了数万亿美元的债务。

Even if we don’t factor in potential debt growth (according to the Congressional Budget Office, debt may reach around $50 trillion by 2035), the U.S. government will need 36 million bitcoins at $1,000,000 (the evaluation often named by various Bitcoin enthusiasts as the near future Bitcoin price).

即使我们不考虑潜在的债务增长（根据国会预算办公室的说法，到2035年，债务也可能达到500万亿美元），美国政府将以1,000,000美元的价格需要3600万比特币（该评估通常由各种比特币爱好者命名为将来的比特币价格）。

The problem is that such an amount of bitcoins is impossible to get as the maximum supply of Bitcoin is set at only 21 million, and its pre-programmed scarcity is seen as one of the main drivers of its value.

问题在于，由于比特币的最大供应仅设定为2100万，因此无法获得这样的比特币，并且其预编程的稀缺性被视为其价值的主要驱动因素之一。

The company holding the biggest BTC bag is BlackRock. As of February 2025, it owns over half of a million bitcoins. Another avid bitcoinist, Strategy’s Michael Saylor, claimed that “there's only room for one nation-state to buy up 20% of the Bitcoin network.” Note that he is not even considering a third part of the supply for any nation while he owns around half a million bitcoins.

拥有最大的BTC包的公司是贝莱德。截至2025年2月，它拥有一百万比特币的一半以上。另一位狂热的比特币主义者策略的迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）声称：“一个民族国家只有一个人购买比特币网络的20％。”请注意，他甚至没有考虑任何国家的第三部分，而他拥有大约半百万比特币。

Amassing even one million bitcoins is a hassle–no wonder a strong Bitcoin proponent Sen. Lummis gives the U.S. government five years to complete the task of accumulating one million BTC. The BTC price must reach $36 billion by 2030 so that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve can be used to cover U.S. debt (however, most probably, the debt value will grow by that time). Even the most bullish predictions are not bullish enough to claim something like that.

即使是一百万个比特币也是一个麻烦 - 并不想知道强大的比特币支持者卢米斯（Lummis）为美国政府提供了五年来完成积累100万BTC的任务。到2030年，BTC价格必须达到360亿美元，以便可以使用战略性比特币储备来偿还美国债务（但是，大多数情况下，债务价值到那时会增长）。即使是最看涨的预测也不足以说明这样的事情。

Another problem is that exchanging these bitcoins for cash won't be an easy task, as the U.S. will need to find enough buyers. The dumping of this huge amount will affect the price negatively, discounting the remaining reserves.

另一个问题是，将这些比特币交换为现金并不容易，因为美国将需要找到足够的买家。倾倒这笔巨额将对价格产生负面影响，从而使剩余的储量打折。

In general, it’s safe to say Bitcoin may be seen as a partial solution while Trump’s words about Bitcoin paying off U.S. debt are pretty baseless at the current stage.

总的来说，可以肯定地说比特币被视为部分解决方案，而特朗普关于比特币还清美国债务的话在当前阶段毫无根据。