Vaneck Research表明，戰略比特幣儲備幾乎不會很快償還美國債務

該研究基於美國財政部在五年內收集一百萬個比特幣並持有20年的想法。

VanEck, an investment management company, has released a tool that showcases the potential impact of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on the U.S. debt at specified conditions. The tool allows users to set the number of bitcoins purchased by the government annually, the average price at which bitcoins are being bought in 2025, and the average compound growth rate of the BTC price and U.S. debt.

投資管理公司Vaneck發布了一種工具，可以在指定條件下展示戰略比特幣儲備對美國債務的潛在影響。該工具允許用戶設置政府每年購買的比特幣數量，2025年購買比特幣的平均價格以及BTC價格和美國債務的平均複合增長率。

The calculator is based on VanEck research outlining how soon the debt may be offset by the BTC reserve at the set parameters, such as the BTC price, etc. It’s worth noting that the research assumes that the Bitcoin Act introduced by Lummis is getting adopted this year without serious changes.

該計算器基於Vaneck研究，概述了以固定參數（例如BTC價格等）的BTC儲備可以抵消債務的時間。一年沒有嚴重的改變。

The research page contains a disclaimer that the calculations are based on past trends and don’t necessarily reflect the future Bitcoin value or the national debt amount.

該研究頁麵包含一個免責聲明，即計算是基於過去趨勢，不一定反映未來的比特幣價值或國家債務金額。

The research is based on the idea of the U.S. treasury collecting a million bitcoins in five years and holding them for 20 years. According to the act, during the 20 years, the bitcoins held in treasury could only be spent to cover the national debt.

該研究基於美國財政部在五年內收集一百萬個比特幣並持有20年的想法。根據該法，在20年中，在財政部中持有的比特幣只能用於支付國債。

Based on VanEck research made in December 2024, the U.S. will amass one million bitcoins by 2049. The total value of these bitcoins will amount to $21 trillion and will offset around 18% of the national debt, which will reach around $116 trillion by 2029, according to VanEck.

根據2024年12月的Vaneck研究，美國將到2049年積累100萬比特幣。這些比特幣的總價值將達到21萬億美元，並將抵消約18％的國家債務，到2029年，這將達到約116萬億美元根據Vaneck。

These figures will be correct at specific average compound growth rates of U.S. debt and BTC price. VanEck researchers assume national debt will be growing by 5% per year, going from the current $36 trillion evaluation to $116 trillion in 2049. VanEck predicts that, on average, BTC value will be growing by 25% each year, increasing from nearly $100,000 to $21 billion per coin in 2049 when the federal bitcoins are no longer barred from selling.

這些數字將以美國債務和BTC價格的特定平均複合增長率正確。 Vaneck研究人員認為，國家債務每年將增長5％，從目前的36萬億美元評估到2049年的116萬億美元。Vaneck預測，平均而言，BTC的價值每年增長25％，從近100,000美元增加到2049年，每枚硬幣210億美元，當時聯邦比特幣不再被禁止出售。

The government may amass more than one million bitcoins as it may accumulate additional coins through seizing, donations, and other ways.

政府可能會積聚超過一百萬個比特幣，因為它可能通過扣押，捐贈和其他方式積累其他硬幣。

All in all, VanEck research indicates that Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will hardly pay off U.S. debt anytime soon which is in line with what Lummis claimed in July 2024 when she was talking about reducing the debt, not covering it.

總而言之，Vaneck Research表明，戰略比特幣儲備幾乎不會很快還清美國債務，這與Lummis在2024年7月談論減少債務而沒有支付債務時聲稱的債務一致。

To fully pay off the national debt (if the growth rates are correct), the government will need to purchase over five million bitcoins.

為了充分償還國家債務（如果增長率正確），政府將需要購買超過500萬比特幣。

In August of 2024, in an interview broadcast on Fox, Donald Trump assumed that Bitcoin would probably pay off trillions of U.S. debt.

2024年8月，在福克斯（Fox）的一次採訪中，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）認為比特幣可能還清了數万億美元的債務。

Even if we don’t factor in potential debt growth (according to the Congressional Budget Office, debt may reach around $50 trillion by 2035), the U.S. government will need 36 million bitcoins at $1,000,000 (the evaluation often named by various Bitcoin enthusiasts as the near future Bitcoin price).

即使我們不考慮潛在的債務增長（根據國會預算辦公室的說法，到2035年，債務也可能達到500萬億美元），美國政府將以1,000,000美元的價格需要3600萬比特幣（該評估通常由各種比特幣愛好者命名為將來的比特幣價格）。

The problem is that such an amount of bitcoins is impossible to get as the maximum supply of Bitcoin is set at only 21 million, and its pre-programmed scarcity is seen as one of the main drivers of its value.

問題在於，由於比特幣的最大供應僅設定為2100萬，因此無法獲得這樣的比特幣，並且其預編程的稀缺性被視為其價值的主要驅動因素之一。

The company holding the biggest BTC bag is BlackRock. As of February 2025, it owns over half of a million bitcoins. Another avid bitcoinist, Strategy’s Michael Saylor, claimed that “there's only room for one nation-state to buy up 20% of the Bitcoin network.” Note that he is not even considering a third part of the supply for any nation while he owns around half a million bitcoins.

擁有最大的BTC包的公司是貝萊德。截至2025年2月，它擁有一百萬比特幣的一半以上。另一位狂熱的比特幣主義者策略的邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）聲稱：“一個民族國家只有一個人購買比特幣網絡的20％。”請注意，他甚至沒有考慮任何國家的第三部分，而他擁有大約半百萬比特幣。

Amassing even one million bitcoins is a hassle–no wonder a strong Bitcoin proponent Sen. Lummis gives the U.S. government five years to complete the task of accumulating one million BTC. The BTC price must reach $36 billion by 2030 so that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve can be used to cover U.S. debt (however, most probably, the debt value will grow by that time). Even the most bullish predictions are not bullish enough to claim something like that.

即使是一百萬個比特幣也是一個麻煩 - 並不想知道強大的比特幣支持者盧米斯（Lummis）為美國政府提供了五年來完成積累100萬BTC的任務。到2030年，BTC價格必須達到360億美元，以便可以使用戰略性比特幣儲備來償還美國債務（但是，大多數情況下，債務價值到那時會增長）。即使是最看漲的預測也不足以說明這樣的事情。

Another problem is that exchanging these bitcoins for cash won't be an easy task, as the U.S. will need to find enough buyers. The dumping of this huge amount will affect the price negatively, discounting the remaining reserves.

另一個問題是，將這些比特幣交換為現金並不容易，因為美國將需要找到足夠的買家。傾倒這筆巨額將對價格產生負面影響，從而使剩餘的儲量打折。

In general, it’s safe to say Bitcoin may be seen as a partial solution while Trump’s words about Bitcoin paying off U.S. debt are pretty baseless at the current stage.

總的來說，可以肯定地說比特幣被視為部分解決方案，而特朗普關於比特幣還清美國債務的話在當前階段毫無根據。