2024年回報和波動性

如果比特幣確實是一個全新的資產類別，那麼我們必須將其回報與其他資產類別進行比較。比特幣在2024年返回了113％以上

Bitcoin performed exceptionally well in 2024, outpacing other major asset classes in terms of returns. However, it is important to consider both returns and risk when evaluating an investment. Traditional finance measures risk by volatility, which is the fluctuation in the asset's price.

比特幣在2024年表現出色，在收益方面超過了其他主要資產類別。但是，在評估投資時要考慮回報和風險很重要。傳統的金融量通過波動率衡量風險，這是資產價格的波動。

When plotting annualized volatility against returns, we observe a linear relationship for bitcoin, equities, gold, and bonds. This is known as the "capital market line," which shows the additional return required to compensate for increased risk. Real estate, on the other hand, deviated from this pattern due to its poor performance (high risk, low returns).

當繪製年度波動率與回報時，我們會觀察到比特幣，股票，黃金和債券的線性關係。這被稱為“資本市場線”，它顯示了彌補風險增加所需的額外回報。另一方面，由於其性能差（高風險，低收益），房地產偏離了這種模式。

This analysis reveals that bitcoin is offering a new option for investors seeking higher risk and higher returns, within the context of the capital market line. However, it does not address the fundamental question of how much risk investors should tolerate, which varies based on individual preferences.

該分析表明，在資本市場線的背景下，比特幣為尋求更高風險和更高回報的投資者提供了一種新選擇。但是，它沒有解決投資者應容忍多少風險的基本問題，這取決於個人偏好。

Historically, equities have been classified as risky and bonds as safe. With the addition of bitcoin to the map, equities now appear safe in comparison. Another way to interpret this chart is that traditional measures of returns calculate only nominal returns, not real returns (returns after inflation). When factoring out the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, government bonds and real estate actually earned negative real returns.

從歷史上看，股票已被歸類為風險，債券安全。隨著地圖上增加了比特幣，相比之下，股票現在看起來很安全。解釋此圖表的另一種方法是，傳統的回報度量僅計算名義回報，而不是實際回報（通貨膨脹後的回報）。當考慮美元貶值時，政府債券和房地產實際上會贏得負面的回報。

Is volatility a problem?

波動性問題嗎？

For 2024 at least, the returns from Bitcoin exceeded the other assets so much that it forces an uncomfortable question: How much does volatility really matter? And to whom? And when?

至少在2024年，比特幣的回報超過了其他資產，以至於迫使一個不舒服的問題：波動性真正重要多少？和誰？什麼時候？

The traditional assumption in financial markets is that investors are risk-averse, and therefore dislike volatility at all costs. But the question remains: At what price? If the investor has a long enough horizon, sacrificing return for volatility would be a mistake. Volatility should not matter in the long term. Said differently, volatility only matters in the short term because it could lead to a loss of capital if you sell. In the long term, the real loss of capital is an opportunity cost: the foregone returns from NOT investing in the highest-return asset. So, volatility is a feature, not a bug, for the long-term investor.

金融市場的傳統假設是投資者規避風險，因此不惜一切代價不喜歡波動。但是問題仍然是：價格是多少？如果投資者的視野足夠長，那麼犧牲波動的回報將是一個錯誤。從長遠來看，波動率應該無關緊要。說不同的是，波動性僅在短期內重要，因為如果您出售，它可能會導致資本損失。從長遠來看，真正的資本損失是一個機會成本：不投資最高回報資產的收益。因此，對於長期投資者而言，波動率不是錯誤的功能。

Value investors like Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet, and Charles Brandes knew about the problem of using volatility to measure risk. Volatility ultimately doesn’t distinguish between directional movements in price. An asset with strong fundamentals whose price falls registers a high volatility, but that can be less risky for the investor because of a lower purchase price. This is as true for undervalued businesses as it was for bitcoin during the last bear market, when it dipped below $20,000.

Benjamin Graham，Warren Buffet和Charles Brandes等價值投資者知道使用波動率來衡量風險的問題。波動性最終無法區分價格的定向運動。具有強大基本原理的資產，其價格下跌的記錄很高，但由於購買價格較低，這對投資者而言可能會降低。對於被低估的企業來說，這與在最後一個熊市中的比特幣一樣，當時它跌至20,000美元以下時，這也是如此。

There are, of course, some caveats in place. The new Trump administration has articulated a more favorable regulatory regime towards cryptocurrencies, and bitcoin's drawdowns in down years can be high, upwards of -70% historically. But 2024 was the year to bear risk, and bitcoin's return proves that thesis.

當然有一些警告。新的特朗普政府表達了對加密貨幣的更有利的監管制度，而在歷史上，比特幣在下降的年份可能很高，歷史上高達-70％。但是2024年是承擔風險的一年，比特幣的回報證明了這一論文。