加密风险投资的表现明显落后于比特币。加密风险投资面临危机吗？

我们分析了 2015 年以来的数据来寻找答案。总之，整个行业都处于亏损状态。 2015年至2022年，代币投资额达490亿美元

The performance of crypto venture capital has significantly lagged behind Bitcoin. We analyzed data since 2015 to find answers. In short, the entire industry is in a state of loss. From 2015 to 2022, the $49 billion invested in token projects created less than $40 billion in value, resulting in a return of -19% (before fees and expenses).

加密风险投资的表现明显落后于比特币。我们分析了 2015 年以来的数据来寻找答案。总之，整个行业都处于亏损状态。从 2015 年到 2022 年，投资于代币项目的 490 亿美元创造了不到 400 亿美元的价值，导致回报率为-19%（未计费用和开支）。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is about to break its all-time high, having risen 2.3 times from the peak in November 2021 based on the 200-day moving average (see the golden line). We analyzed all venture capital rounds prior to January 1, 2023. In crypto venture capital, out of a total investment of $88 billion, $70 billion (80%) was invested before this date. Why?

与此同时，比特币即将突破历史新高，根据200日移动平均线（见黄金线），比特币已较2021年11月的峰值上涨了2.3倍。我们分析了 2023 年 1 月 1 日之前的所有风险投资轮次。在加密货币风险投资中，在 880 亿美元的总投资中，有 700 亿美元（80%）是在此日期之前投资的。为什么？

Because any more recent investments are not suitable for inclusion in the analysis, as they have had too short a time to realize value.

因为任何较新的投资都不适合纳入分析，因为它们实现价值的时间太短。

Typically, it takes about 3 years from the seed round to the token generation event (TGE), while later-stage investments take less than 1 year. Therefore, excluding data from within two years seems reasonable. Of course, there are exceptions, but they are not enough to change the overall analysis. Thus, from 2015 to 2022, about $70 billion was invested, of which we assume 70% was invested in token projects. This is an empirically based estimate.

通常，从种子轮到代币生成事件（TGE）大约需要 3 年的时间，而后期投资则需要不到 1 年的时间。因此，排除两年内的数据似乎是合理的。当然，也有例外，但不足以改变整体分析。因此，从 2015 年到 2022 年，投资了约 700 亿美元，其中我们假设 70% 投资于代币项目。这是基于经验的估计。

Clearly, not all crypto venture capital flowed into token projects. However, aside from the recent acquisition of Bridge and Coinbase's IPO, there have been almost no other liquidity events in the market, making it difficult to accurately value these investments at present.

显然，并非所有加密货币风险资本都流入了代币项目。不过，除了近期收购 Bridge 和 Coinbase IPO 之外，市场上几乎没有发生其他流动性事件，因此目前很难对这些投资进行准确估值。

From 2015 to 2022, venture capital invested $49 billion in token projects.

2015年至2022年，风险投资向代币项目投资了490亿美元。

The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of these venture-backed projects reached $439 billion.

这些风险投资支持项目的完全摊薄估值 (FDV) 达到 4,390 亿美元。

Notably, $100 billion of this value comes from SOL.

值得注意的是，其中 1000 亿美元来自 SOL。

It is evident that the returns from venture capital are primarily driven by a few exceptional projects, but aside from these specific funds, the entire industry has not widely participated in this value creation.

显然，风险投资的回报主要是由少数特殊项目驱动的，但除了这些特定基金外，整个行业并没有广泛参与这种价值创造。

Therefore, we can consider the remaining value to be $339 billion.

因此，我们可以认为剩余价值为3390亿美元。

So, what share does the entire venture capital industry hold in these projects?

那么，整个风险投资行业在这些项目中占有多少份额呢？

Assuming that venture capitalists collectively hold 15% of these token FDVs.

假设风险投资家总共持有这些代币 FDV 的 15%。

Each round of venture capital typically purchases about 7% of the network, and there are usually 2 rounds of investment before the token generation event (sometimes fewer).

每轮风险投资通常购买约 7% 的网络，并且在代币生成事件之前通常有 2 轮投资（有时更少）。

Thus, a 15% holding seems reasonable.

因此，持有 15% 的股份似乎是合理的。

Based on the current market cap, the venture capital industry theoretically holds tokens worth $66 billion.

根据目前的市值，风险投资行业理论上持有价值 660 亿美元的代币。

If we exclude SOL, this value is $51 billion.

如果我们排除 SOL，这个价值是 510 亿美元。

Thus, the overall investment of the entire industry before 2022 (before fees and expenses) grew by 34%, including SOL.

因此，2022年之前整个行业的整体投资（未计费用和支出）增长了34%，其中包括SOL。

If we exclude SOL, it is essentially flat.

如果我们排除 SOL，它基本上是持平的。

We know there is a significant difference between liquid value (i.e., market cap) and fully diluted valuation (FDV).

我们知道流动价值（即市值）和完全稀释估值（FDV）之间存在显着差异。

This data is based on the assumption that the FDV of locked tokens can be sold at current prices.

该数据基于锁定代币的 FDV 可以按当前价格出售的假设。

If we consider a standard discount for market illiquidity (DLOM) of 40% (which may vary greatly in the cryptocurrency space), then the project value including SOL is about $40 billion, and excluding SOL is about $30 billion.

如果我们考虑 40% 的市场非流动性 (DLOM) 标准折扣（在加密货币领域可能存在很大差异），那么包含 SOL 的项目价值约为 400 亿美元，不包含 SOL 的项目价值约为 300 亿美元。

Adding fees and expenses, this number will decrease further.

加上费用和开支，这个数字将进一步减少。

At current prices, the entire industry is actually at a loss.

按照目前的价格计算，整个行业实际上处于亏损状态。

However, as the saying goes, a 6-foot tall person can still drown in a river with an average depth of 5 feet.

然而，俗话说，一个6英尺高的人仍然可能在平均深度为5英尺的河流中被淹死。

These are all rough averages used to get a general sense of the industry's overall condition.

这些都是粗略的平均值，用于大致了解行业的整体状况。

There are indeed some extreme success stories.

确实有一些极端的成功案例。

If you invested in the seed round of SOL or made a sufficiently large investment in a small fund in projects with a market cap over $1 billion, your performance would exceed that of Bitcoin and the average of the entire industry.

如果你投资了SOL的种子轮，或者对市值超过10亿美元的项目进行了足够大的小基金投资，你的表现将超过比特币和整个行业的平均水平。

It is worth noting that the value of most altcoins comes from projects launched in the early part of the previous cycle or even earlier.

值得注意的是，大多数山寨币的价值来自于上一个周期早期甚至更早启动的项目。

Recent projects are still developing, so there may still be room for growth in the future.

最近的项目仍在开发中，因此未来可能仍有增长空间。

Most of the $70 billion invested from 2015 to 2022 was invested in the latter half of this period.

2015年至2022年投资的700亿美元大部分是在这一时期的后半段投资的。

These projects are often investments made by larger venture capital firms at higher valuations.

这些项目通常是大型风险投资公司以较高估值进行的投资。

Therefore, it remains uncertain whether the success of recent projects will yield strong investment returns.

因此，近期项目的成功是否会带来丰厚的投资回报仍不确定。

One last point—how does this compare to the returns of Web 2 venture capital in the same years?

最后一点——这与同年 Web 2 风险投资的回报相比如何？

According to the reported TVPI (Total Value to Paid-In

根据报告的 TVPI（已付总价值