加密創投的表現明顯落後於比特幣。加密創投面臨危機嗎？

我們分析了 2015 年以來的數據來尋找答案。總之，整個產業都處於虧損狀態。 2015年至2022年，代幣投資額達490億美元

The performance of crypto venture capital has significantly lagged behind Bitcoin. We analyzed data since 2015 to find answers. In short, the entire industry is in a state of loss. From 2015 to 2022, the $49 billion invested in token projects created less than $40 billion in value, resulting in a return of -19% (before fees and expenses).

加密創投的表現明顯落後於比特幣。我們分析了 2015 年以來的數據來尋找答案。總之，整個產業都處於虧損狀態。從 2015 年到 2022 年，投資於代幣項目的 490 億美元創造了不到 400 億美元的價值，導致回報率為-19%（未計費用和開支）。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is about to break its all-time high, having risen 2.3 times from the peak in November 2021 based on the 200-day moving average (see the golden line). We analyzed all venture capital rounds prior to January 1, 2023. In crypto venture capital, out of a total investment of $88 billion, $70 billion (80%) was invested before this date. Why?

同時，比特幣即將突破歷史新高，根據200日移動平均線（見黃金線），比特幣已較2021年11月的峰值上漲了2.3倍。我們分析了 2023 年 1 月 1 日之前的所有創投輪次。為什麼？

Because any more recent investments are not suitable for inclusion in the analysis, as they have had too short a time to realize value.

因為任何較新的投資都不適合納入分析，因為它們實現價值的時間太短。

Typically, it takes about 3 years from the seed round to the token generation event (TGE), while later-stage investments take less than 1 year. Therefore, excluding data from within two years seems reasonable. Of course, there are exceptions, but they are not enough to change the overall analysis. Thus, from 2015 to 2022, about $70 billion was invested, of which we assume 70% was invested in token projects. This is an empirically based estimate.

通常，從種子輪到代幣生成事件（TGE）大約需要 3 年的時間，而後期投資則需要不到 1 年的時間。因此，排除兩年內的數據似乎是合理的。當然，也有例外，但不足以改變整體分析。因此，從 2015 年到 2022 年，投資了約 700 億美元，其中我們假設 70% 投資於代幣項目。這是基於經驗的估計。

Clearly, not all crypto venture capital flowed into token projects. However, aside from the recent acquisition of Bridge and Coinbase's IPO, there have been almost no other liquidity events in the market, making it difficult to accurately value these investments at present.

顯然，並非所有加密貨幣風險資本都流入了代幣項目。不過，除了最近收購 Bridge 和 Coinbase IPO 之外，市場上幾乎沒有其他流動性事件，因此目前很難對這些投資進行準確估值。

From 2015 to 2022, venture capital invested $49 billion in token projects.

2015年至2022年，創投向代幣項目投資了490億美元。

The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of these venture-backed projects reached $439 billion.

這些創投支持項目的完全稀釋估值 (FDV) 達到 4,390 億美元。

Notably, $100 billion of this value comes from SOL.

值得注意的是，其中 1000 億美元來自 SOL。

It is evident that the returns from venture capital are primarily driven by a few exceptional projects, but aside from these specific funds, the entire industry has not widely participated in this value creation.

顯然，創投的回報主要是由少數特殊項目所驅動的，但除了這些特定基金外，整個產業並沒有廣泛參與這種價值創造。

Therefore, we can consider the remaining value to be $339 billion.

因此，我們可以認為剩餘價值為3390億美元。

So, what share does the entire venture capital industry hold in these projects?

那麼，整個創投產業在這些項目中佔有多少份額呢？

Assuming that venture capitalists collectively hold 15% of these token FDVs.

假設創投家總共持有這些代幣 FDV 的 15%。

Each round of venture capital typically purchases about 7% of the network, and there are usually 2 rounds of investment before the token generation event (sometimes fewer).

每輪風險投資通常購買約 7% 的網絡，並且在代幣生成事件之前通常有 2 輪投資（有時更少）。

Thus, a 15% holding seems reasonable.

因此，持有 15% 的股份似乎是合理的。

Based on the current market cap, the venture capital industry theoretically holds tokens worth $66 billion.

根據目前的市值，創投產業理論上持有價值 660 億美元的代幣。

If we exclude SOL, this value is $51 billion.

如果我們排除 SOL，這個價值是 510 億美元。

Thus, the overall investment of the entire industry before 2022 (before fees and expenses) grew by 34%, including SOL.

因此，2022年之前整個產業的整體投資（未計費用和支出）成長了34%，其中包括SOL。

If we exclude SOL, it is essentially flat.

如果我們排除 SOL，它基本上是持平的。

We know there is a significant difference between liquid value (i.e., market cap) and fully diluted valuation (FDV).

我們知道流動價值（即市值）和完全稀釋估值（FDV）之間存在顯著差異。

This data is based on the assumption that the FDV of locked tokens can be sold at current prices.

該數據基於鎖定代幣的 FDV 可以按當前價格出售的假設。

If we consider a standard discount for market illiquidity (DLOM) of 40% (which may vary greatly in the cryptocurrency space), then the project value including SOL is about $40 billion, and excluding SOL is about $30 billion.

如果我們考慮40% 的市場非流動性(DLOM) 標準折扣（在加密貨幣領域可能存在很大差異），那麼包含SOL 的項目價值約為400 億美元，不包含SOL 的項目價值約為300 億美元。

Adding fees and expenses, this number will decrease further.

加上費用和開支，這個數字將進一步減少。

At current prices, the entire industry is actually at a loss.

以目前的價格計算，整個產業實際上處於虧損狀態。

However, as the saying goes, a 6-foot tall person can still drown in a river with an average depth of 5 feet.

然而，俗話說，一個6英尺高的人仍然可能在平均深度為5英尺的河流中被淹死。

These are all rough averages used to get a general sense of the industry's overall condition.

這些都是粗略的平均值，用於大致了解行業的整體狀況。

There are indeed some extreme success stories.

確實有一些極端的成功案例。

If you invested in the seed round of SOL or made a sufficiently large investment in a small fund in projects with a market cap over $1 billion, your performance would exceed that of Bitcoin and the average of the entire industry.

如果你投資了SOL的種子輪，或者對市值超過10億美元的項目進行了足夠大的小基金投資，你的表現將超過比特幣和整個行業的平均水平。

It is worth noting that the value of most altcoins comes from projects launched in the early part of the previous cycle or even earlier.

值得注意的是，大多數山寨幣的價值來自於上一個週期早期甚至更早啟動的專案。

Recent projects are still developing, so there may still be room for growth in the future.

最近的項目仍在開發中，因此未來可能仍有成長空間。

Most of the $70 billion invested from 2015 to 2022 was invested in the latter half of this period.

2015年至2022年投資的700億美元大部分是在這段期間的後半段投資的。

These projects are often investments made by larger venture capital firms at higher valuations.

這些項目通常是大型創投公司以較高估值進行的投資。

Therefore, it remains uncertain whether the success of recent projects will yield strong investment returns.

因此，近期專案的成功是否會帶來豐厚的投資回報仍不確定。

One last point—how does this compare to the returns of Web 2 venture capital in the same years?

最後一點——這與同年 Web 2 創投的報酬相比如何？

According to the reported TVPI (Total Value to Paid-In

根據報告的 TVPI（已支付總價值