MicroStrategy的比特币投资策略及其财务风险

结论首先：从理论上讲可能，但实际上概率很低

Author: XinGPT

作者：Xingpt

Conclusion first: theoretically possible, but practically very low probability

结论首先：从理论上讲可能，但实际上概率很低

Leverage ratio is low, debt maturity is long, and there is no significant short-term repayment pressure

杠杆比率很低，债务成熟度很长，并且没有明显的短期还款压力

The premise is that the Bitcoin value remains at an extremely low level for a long time, which has a low probability

前提是长期以来，比特币值保持极低的水平，其概率很低

Founder Michael Saylor holds 46.8% voting rights, which can avoid early redemption clauses in preferred stock debt, firmly controlling the company's operational direction

创始人迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）拥有46.8％的投票权，可以避免优先股票债务的早期赎回条款，并坚定控制公司的运营方向

1. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Holdings and Strategy

1。微型造影的比特币持有和策略

MicroStrategy, Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) has transformed from a traditional software company into the largest Bitcoin-holding company in the world. As of the end of 2024, the company held approximately 471,107 Bitcoins. The total cost of these Bitcoins is about $27.97 billion, with an average purchase cost of about $62,500 per coin. In contrast, the market value of these Bitcoins is approximately $41.79 billion at the same time.

MicroStrategy，Inc。（NASDAQ：MSTR）已从一家传统的软件公司转变为世界上最大的比特币持有公司。截至2024年底，该公司拥有约471,107个比特币。这些比特币的总成本约为279.7亿美元，平均购买成本约为每枚硬币62,500美元。相比之下，这些比特币的市场价值同时约为417.9亿美元。

The company's strategy for financing its Bitcoin purchases involves issuing bonds and increasing stock issuance. Its management, represented by co-founder Michael Saylor, views Bitcoin as the company's primary reserve asset, continuously purchasing more Bitcoin through external financing rather than relying on cash flow from its own business.

该公司为其比特币购买融资的战略涉及发行债券和增加股票发行。由联合创始人迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）代表的管理层将比特币视为该公司的主要储备资产，不断通过外部融资购买更多比特币，而不是依靠自己业务的现金流。

Main methods of financing

主要融资方法

The company primarily raises funds to purchase Bitcoin through four methods:

该公司主要通过四种方法筹集资金来购买比特币：

1) Using Own Funds for Purchase

1）使用自己的资金购买

Not the main source of funds, MicroStrategy has used no more than $500 million to purchase Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy并不是主要资金来源，不超过5亿美元购买比特币。

2) Issuing Convertible Senior Notes

2）发行可转换的高级票据

To purchase more Bitcoin, MicroStrategy began financing through the issuance of convertible bonds.

为了购买更多比特币，MicroStrategy通过发行可转换债券开始融资。

Convertible senior notes are a financial instrument that allows investors to convert the bonds into company stock. These bonds typically have low or even zero interest rates, with a conversion price set above the current stock price. Investors are willing to buy such bonds mainly because they provide downside protection, i.e., the ability to recover principal and interest at maturity, and potential gains when the stock price rises. The interest rates on several issues of convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy mostly range from 0% to 0.75%, indicating that investors are confident in the rise of MSTR's stock price, hoping to convert the bonds into stock for greater returns.

可转换的高级票据是一种金融工具，允许投资者将债券转换为公司股票。这些债券通常具有较低甚至零利率，转换价格的设定高于当前股票价格。投资者愿意购买此类债券，主要是因为它们提供了下行保护，即，在股价上涨时可以收回本金和利息的能力以及潜在的收益。 MicroStrategy发行的几个可转换债券的利率主要从0％到0.75％，这表明投资者对MSTR股价上涨充满信心，希望将债券转换为股票以获得更大的回报。

3) Issuing Senior Secured Notes

3）发行高级担保票据

In addition to convertible senior notes, MicroStrategy also issued a $489 million senior secured note due in 2028 with a 6.125% interest rate.

除了可转换的高级票据外，MicroStrategy还发行了4.89亿美元的高级担保票据，该票据于2028年应为6.125％的利率。

Compared with convertible bonds, senior secured notes are a type of secured bond with lower risk, but these bonds only provide fixed interest income. The batch of senior secured notes issued by MicroStrategy has already chosen to repay early.

与可转换债券相比，高级有担保票据是具有较低风险的有抵押债券，但这些债券仅提供固定利息收入。 MicroStrategy发行的一批高级担保纸币已经选择提前还款。

The following chart shows the current debt situation of MicroStrategy:

以下图表显示了当前的微观债务状况：

It can be seen that MicroStrategy's total liabilities are $8.213 billion, total assets (mainly in Bitcoin) are valued at $43 billion, and the leverage ratio is 19%. This means that Bitcoin would need to drop below $16,500 and maintain that price until 2028 or even longer for MicroStrategy to become insolvent.

可以看出，MicroStrategy的总负债为82.13亿美元，总资产（主要是比特币）的价值为430亿美元，杠杆比率为19％。这意味着比特币将需要降到16,500美元以下，并保持该价格直到2028年，甚至更长的时间使MicroStrategy变得无力偿债。

4) At-the-Market Equity Offerings

4）市场股票产品

This method of financing does not incur debt but dilutes existing shareholders' equity. Existing shareholders agree to this financing mode as MicroStrategy has proposed a new metric called BTC Yield, which is the ratio of Bitcoin holdings to diluted total equity. In other words, during a rising market phase, financing through stock issuance to purchase Bitcoin may reduce the ownership percentage of existing shareholders, but the Bitcoin content per share increases, and overall, the amount of Bitcoin held by shareholders may still increase.

这种融资方法不会产生债务，而是稀释现有股东的权益。现有股东同意这种融资模式，因为MicroStrategy提出了一个名为BTC收益率的新指标，这是比特币持有量与稀释总股权的比率。换句话说，在不断上升的市场阶段，通过股票发行以购买比特币的融资可能会降低现有股东的所有权百分比，但是每股比特币内容增加，总体而言，股东持有的比特币数量仍可能增加。

For example, MicroStrategy's BTC Yield in 2024 is 74%, meaning the number of Bitcoins per share increased by 74%, while the current BTC Yield for 2025 is 6.9%, with a target of reaching 15% by the end of the year.

例如，MicroStrategy在2024年的BTC收益率为74％，这意味着每股比特币的数量增加了74％，而目前的2025年BTC收益率为6.9％，到今年年底达到15％的目标。

2. Short-term vs. Long-term Impact of Bitcoin Price Decline

2。比特币价格下跌的短期与长期影响

Short-term impact: A decline in Bitcoin prices will directly affect MicroStrategy's financial performance. Accounting rules require companies to recognize impairment losses when Bitcoin prices fall, but gains cannot be directly reflected when prices rise.

短期影响：比特币价格下跌将直接影响MicroStrategy的财务绩效。会计规则要求公司在比特币价格下跌时认识到减值损失，但是当价格上涨时，收益不能直接反映。

For instance, during the Bitcoin crash in 2022, the company recognized $197 million in impairment losses in the fourth quarter, leading to a quarterly loss. However, when Bitcoin rebounded in 2023, MicroStrategy reduced impairment losses due to accounting treatment and even reported profits at one point.

例如，在2022年的比特币撞车事故中，该公司在第四季度承认了1.7万美元的减值损失，导致季度损失。但是，当比特币在2023年反弹时，微观造成的减少了由于会计处理而导致的减值损失，甚至在某一时期报告了利润。

Currently, the company does not have any Bitcoin collateralized loans, so short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin prices will not trigger margin call risks. Nevertheless, the stock price is highly correlated

目前，该公司没有任何比特币抵押贷款，因此比特币价格的短期波动不会触发保证金通话风险。但是，股票价格高度相关