MicroStrategy的比特幣投資策略及其財務風險

結論首先：從理論上講可能，但實際上概率很低

Author: XinGPT

作者：Xingpt

Conclusion first: theoretically possible, but practically very low probability

結論首先：從理論上講可能，但實際上概率很低

Leverage ratio is low, debt maturity is long, and there is no significant short-term repayment pressure

槓桿比率很低，債務成熟度很長，並且沒有明顯的短期還款壓力

The premise is that the Bitcoin value remains at an extremely low level for a long time, which has a low probability

前提是長期以來，比特幣值保持極低的水平，其概率很低

Founder Michael Saylor holds 46.8% voting rights, which can avoid early redemption clauses in preferred stock debt, firmly controlling the company's operational direction

創始人邁克爾·賽勒（Michael Saylor）擁有46.8％的投票權，可以避免優先股票債務的早期贖回條款，並堅定控制公司的運營方向

1. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Holdings and Strategy

1。微型造影的比特幣持有和策略

MicroStrategy, Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) has transformed from a traditional software company into the largest Bitcoin-holding company in the world. As of the end of 2024, the company held approximately 471,107 Bitcoins. The total cost of these Bitcoins is about $27.97 billion, with an average purchase cost of about $62,500 per coin. In contrast, the market value of these Bitcoins is approximately $41.79 billion at the same time.

MicroStrategy，Inc。（NASDAQ：MSTR）已從一家傳統的軟件公司轉變為世界上最大的比特幣持有公司。截至2024年底，該公司擁有約471,107個比特幣。這些比特幣的總成本約為279.7億美元，平均購買成本約為每枚硬幣62,500美元。相比之下，這些比特幣的市場價值同時約為417.9億美元。

The company's strategy for financing its Bitcoin purchases involves issuing bonds and increasing stock issuance. Its management, represented by co-founder Michael Saylor, views Bitcoin as the company's primary reserve asset, continuously purchasing more Bitcoin through external financing rather than relying on cash flow from its own business.

該公司為其比特幣購買融資的戰略涉及發行債券和增加股票發行。由聯合創始人邁克爾·賽勒（Michael Saylor）代表的管理層將比特幣視為該公司的主要儲備資產，不斷通過外部融資購買更多比特幣，而不是依靠自己業務的現金流。

Main methods of financing

主要融資方法

The company primarily raises funds to purchase Bitcoin through four methods:

該公司主要通過四種方法籌集資金來購買比特幣：

1) Using Own Funds for Purchase

1）使用自己的資金購買

Not the main source of funds, MicroStrategy has used no more than $500 million to purchase Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy並不是主要資金來源，不超過5億美元購買比特幣。

2) Issuing Convertible Senior Notes

2）發行可轉換的高級票據

To purchase more Bitcoin, MicroStrategy began financing through the issuance of convertible bonds.

為了購買更多比特幣，MicroStrategy通過發行可轉換債券開始融資。

Convertible senior notes are a financial instrument that allows investors to convert the bonds into company stock. These bonds typically have low or even zero interest rates, with a conversion price set above the current stock price. Investors are willing to buy such bonds mainly because they provide downside protection, i.e., the ability to recover principal and interest at maturity, and potential gains when the stock price rises. The interest rates on several issues of convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy mostly range from 0% to 0.75%, indicating that investors are confident in the rise of MSTR's stock price, hoping to convert the bonds into stock for greater returns.

可轉換的高級票據是一種金融工具，允許投資者將債券轉換為公司股票。這些債券通常具有較低甚至零利率，轉換價格的設定高於當前股票價格。投資者願意購買此類債券，主要是因為它們提供了下行保護，即，在股價上漲時可以收回本金和利息的能力以及潛在的收益。 MicroStrategy發行的幾個可轉換債券的利率主要從0％到0.75％，這表明投資者對MSTR股價上漲充滿信心，希望將債券轉換為股票以獲得更大的回報。

3) Issuing Senior Secured Notes

3）發行高級擔保票據

In addition to convertible senior notes, MicroStrategy also issued a $489 million senior secured note due in 2028 with a 6.125% interest rate.

除了可轉換的高級票據外，MicroStrategy還發行了4.89億美元的高級擔保票據，該票據於2028年應為6.125％的利率。

Compared with convertible bonds, senior secured notes are a type of secured bond with lower risk, but these bonds only provide fixed interest income. The batch of senior secured notes issued by MicroStrategy has already chosen to repay early.

與可轉換債券相比，高級有擔保票據是具有較低風險的有抵押債券，但這些債券僅提供固定利息收入。 MicroStrategy發行的一批高級擔保紙幣已經選擇提前還款。

The following chart shows the current debt situation of MicroStrategy:

以下圖表顯示了當前的微觀債務狀況：

It can be seen that MicroStrategy's total liabilities are $8.213 billion, total assets (mainly in Bitcoin) are valued at $43 billion, and the leverage ratio is 19%. This means that Bitcoin would need to drop below $16,500 and maintain that price until 2028 or even longer for MicroStrategy to become insolvent.

可以看出，MicroStrategy的總負債為82.13億美元，總資產（主要是比特幣）的價值為430億美元，槓桿比率為19％。這意味著比特幣將需要降到16,500美元以下，並保持該價格直到2028年，甚至更長的時間使MicroStrategy變得無力償債。

4) At-the-Market Equity Offerings

4）市場股票產品

This method of financing does not incur debt but dilutes existing shareholders' equity. Existing shareholders agree to this financing mode as MicroStrategy has proposed a new metric called BTC Yield, which is the ratio of Bitcoin holdings to diluted total equity. In other words, during a rising market phase, financing through stock issuance to purchase Bitcoin may reduce the ownership percentage of existing shareholders, but the Bitcoin content per share increases, and overall, the amount of Bitcoin held by shareholders may still increase.

這種融資方法不會產生債務，而是稀釋現有股東的權益。現有股東同意這種融資模式，因為MicroStrategy提出了一個名為BTC收益率的新指標，這是比特幣持有量與稀釋總股權的比率。換句話說，在不斷上升的市場階段，通過股票發行以購買比特幣的融資可能會降低現有股東的所有權百分比，但是每股比特幣內容增加，總體而言，股東持有的比特幣數量仍可能增加。

For example, MicroStrategy's BTC Yield in 2024 is 74%, meaning the number of Bitcoins per share increased by 74%, while the current BTC Yield for 2025 is 6.9%, with a target of reaching 15% by the end of the year.

例如，MicroStrategy在2024年的BTC收益率為74％，這意味著每股比特幣的數量增加了74％，而目前的2025年BTC收益率為6.9％，到今年年底達到15％的目標。

2. Short-term vs. Long-term Impact of Bitcoin Price Decline

2。比特幣價格下跌的短期與長期影響

Short-term impact: A decline in Bitcoin prices will directly affect MicroStrategy's financial performance. Accounting rules require companies to recognize impairment losses when Bitcoin prices fall, but gains cannot be directly reflected when prices rise.

短期影響：比特幣價格下跌將直接影響MicroStrategy的財務績效。會計規則要求公司在比特幣價格下跌時認識到減值損失，但是當價格上漲時，收益不能直接反映。

For instance, during the Bitcoin crash in 2022, the company recognized $197 million in impairment losses in the fourth quarter, leading to a quarterly loss. However, when Bitcoin rebounded in 2023, MicroStrategy reduced impairment losses due to accounting treatment and even reported profits at one point.

例如，在2022年的比特幣撞車事故中，該公司在第四季度承認了1.7萬美元的減值損失，導致季度損失。但是，當比特幣在2023年反彈時，微觀造成的減少了由於會計處理而導致的減值損失，甚至在某一時期報告了利潤。

Currently, the company does not have any Bitcoin collateralized loans, so short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin prices will not trigger margin call risks. Nevertheless, the stock price is highly correlated

目前，該公司沒有任何比特幣抵押貸款，因此比特幣價格的短期波動不會觸發保證金通話風險。但是，股票價格高度相關