比特币从这个周期的历史最高时期下降了26％，将市场情绪推向了“极端恐惧”

比特币从这个周期的历史最高水平中下降了26％，将市场情绪推向了“极端恐惧”。但是，全球流动性趋势提供了更广泛的观点。

LONDON, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 07: A visual representation of the digital Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) alongside US Dollars. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

英国伦敦 - 12月7日：数字加密货币（BTC）的视觉代表与美元一起。 （Dan Kitwood/Getty Images的照片）

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 26% from this cycle’s all-time high, pushing market sentiment into “extreme fear.” But a broader perspective from global liquidity trends offers interesting insights amid the volatility.

比特币（BTC）从这个周期的历史最高时分中下降了26％，将市场情绪推向了“极端恐惧”。但是，从全球流动性趋势中提出的更广泛的观点为波动性提供了有趣的见解。

Indeed, in today’s economic environment, the money supply plays a big role in shaping asset prices. This is especially true for bitcoin, which maintains a 0.94 correlation with global liquidity over the long term.

确实，在当今的经济环境中，货币供应在塑造资产价格方面起着重要作用。对于比特币而言，这尤其如此，该比特币长期与全球流动性保持0.94的相关性。

Breaking Down Global Liquidity

打破全球流动性

Global liquidity refers to the overall availability of money and credit across the international financial system. It affects capital flows, investment, and asset prices, with central banks playing a crucial role through interest rates and monetary policy. Key institutions like the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), People’s Bank of China (PBoC), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) shape these conditions.

全球流动性是指整个国际金融体系中货币和信贷的总体可用性。它会影响资本流，投资和资产价格，中央银行通过利率和货币政策发挥着至关重要的作用。美联储，欧洲中央银行（ECB），中国人民银行（PBOC）和日本银行（BOJ）等主要机构塑造了这些条件。

A commonly used measure is Global M2. It encompasses cash, checking and savings deposits, money market accounts, and smaller time deposits below $100,000, all in U.S. dollar terms. It serves as a proxy for the total money readily available for spending, investing, and lending on a global scale.

常用的措施是全局M2。它涵盖现金，支票和储蓄存款，货币市场帐户以及低于100,000美元以下的较小时间存款，均以美元计。它是一笔可用于全球范围内支出，投资和贷款的总资金的代理。

Bitcoin’s price is closely linked to these global liquidity trends. The logic is simple: when there is more money available, asset prices tend to rise. Risk assets, like bitcoin, are particularly sensitive to liquidity, thriving in periods when investors adopt a risk-on strategy.

比特币的价格与这些全球流动性趋势紧密相关。逻辑很简单：当有更多可用的资金可用时，资产价格往往会上涨。像比特币这样的风险资产对流动性特别敏感，在投资者采用风险策略的时期蓬勃发展。

Bitcoin and Liquidity Correlation: A Closer Look

比特币和流动性相关性：仔细观察

While bitcoin follows liquidity trends, the timing, specific events, and bitcoin’s internal liquidity dynamics also matter. A study by Sam Callahan for Lyn Alden, Inc. examined these factors.

尽管比特币遵循流动性趋势，但时间，特定事件和比特币的内部流动性动态也很重要。 Sam Callahan为Lyn Alden，Inc。进行的一项研究检查了这些因素。

Timing Is Key

时机是关键

Bitcoin shows a strong long-term correlation with liquidity, but short-term movements are subject to changes in specific market factors. An analysis of bitcoin’s performance from May 2013 to July 2024 indicates a 0.94 correlation with global liquidity over the long term. However, when measured using a 12-month rolling correlation, this drops to 0.51, and over a six-month rolling window, it falls further to 0.36.

比特币显示出与流动性的长期长期相关性，但是短期移动会随特定市场因素的变化而约束。对比特币从2013年5月到2024年7月的性能的分析表明，长期与全球流动性有0.94的相关性。但是，当使用12个月的滚动相关性测量时，它会下降到0.51，并且在六个月的滚动窗口上降至0.36。

Periods Where Correlation Weakens

相关性削弱的时期

The periods where bitcoin’s 12-month rolling correlation with liquidity weakens often coincide with significant industry or global events. The ICO bubble burst, the COVID-19 sell-off, or the recent Terra/Luna collapse (which triggered what Callahan calls a crypto credit contagion) disrupted market dynamics. These events may spark fear-driven selloffs, not directly related to liquidity trends.

比特币与流动性相关的12个月滚动相关性的时期通常与重要的行业或全球事件相吻合。 ICO泡沫破裂，COVID-19卖出或最近的Terra/Luna崩溃（引发了Callahan所说的加密信贷传染）破坏了市场动态。这些事件可能会引发恐惧驱动的抛售，而与流动性趋势无直接相关。

Bitcoin’s Own Liquidity Cycle

比特币自己的流动性周期

Bitcoin is not just an asset; it functions as money, with its own internal liquidity cycles. It follows a four-year halving cycle, where miners' rewards for securing the network are cut in half. While the reduction in new supply is relatively small, these halvings tend to ignite market-wide enthusiasm, often pushing prices into overbought territory. At that point, long-term holders capitalize on the rally by selling to new entrants.

比特币不仅是资产；它用自身的内部流动性周期充当金钱。这是一个为期四年的减半周期，在这里矿工获得的确保网络的奖励被切成两半。尽管新供应的减少相对较小，但这些过度往往会激发整个市场的热情，通常将价格推向过多的领土。那时，长期持有人通过向新进入者销售来利用集会。

This pattern played out in 2013, 2017, and 2021, when bitcoin hit extreme valuations and encountered sharp corrections afterward. These rapid price drops occurred despite no fundamental changes in bitcoin’s technology or utility. Instead, they were driven by internal market dynamics as the cryptocurrency quickly lost liquidity.

这种模式在2013年，2017年和2021年发行，当时比特币达到极端估值并随后遇到了锐利的校正。尽管比特币的技术或实用程序没有任何根本变化，但这些快速价格下降还是发生了。取而代之的是，由于加密货币很快失去流动性，它们是由内部市场动态驱动的。

A key metric for tracking the state of bitcoin’s valuation is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. It compares bitcoin’s market price to the average on-chain acquisition price (coin value at last transaction). The MVRV Z-score further refines this measure by considering historical volatility, making it a more precise indicator of valuation extremes. A high MVRV Z-score suggests bitcoin is overbought, signaling a potential correction, while a low score indicates undervaluation and accumulation opportunities.

跟踪比特币估值状态的关键指标是实现价值（MVRV）比率的市场价值。它将比特币的市场价格与平均链习惯价格（终于交易的硬币价值）进行了比较。 MVRV Z得分通过考虑历史波动率进一步完善了这一措施，使其成为极端估值的更精确指标。高MVRV Z分数表明比特币过于购买，表明潜在的校正，而较低的分数表示低估和累积机会。

Combining MVRV Z-Score with Correlation

将MVRV z得分与相关性结合

Chart: Sam Callahan for Lyn Alden, Inc.

图表：Sam Callahan for Lyn Alden，Inc。

As the above chart showcases, when the MVRV Z-score drops sharply from elevated levels—which usually happens during periods of rapid price decline—we observe a corresponding decrease in bitcoin’s 12-month rolling correlation with liquidity. This shift occurs as internal market dynamics, like profit-taking and panic selling, become more dominant than broader liquidity conditions.

如上图所示，当MVRV Z得分从升高的水平急剧下降时（通常发生在价格快速下降的时期）时，我们观察到比特币与流动性的12个月滚动相关性相应下降。这种转变发生是因为内部市场动态（如获取利润和恐慌销售）比更广泛的流动性条件更为占主导地位。

In essence, even in a favorable liquidity environment, an overvalued bitcoin, as signaled by the MVRV Z-score, may still experience price corrections due to internal market forces. Conversely, even in a less favorable liquidity climate, a bitcoin valued below its realized price and low MVRV Z-score might attract accumulation from investors seeking opportunities in undervalued assets.

从本质上讲，即使在有利的流动性环境中，MVRV Z-Score表示的高估比特币也可能由于内部市场力量而导致的价格更正。相反，即使在不太有利的流动性环境中，比特币的价值低于其实现的价格，而MVRV Z得分较低的比特币也可能会吸引投资者的积累，从而寻求被低估资产的机会。

What Does Global Liquidity Suggest

全球流动性暗示什么