比特幣從這個週期的歷史最高時期下降了26％，將市場情緒推向了“極端恐懼”

比特幣從這個週期的歷史最高水平中下降了26％，將市場情緒推向了“極端恐懼”。但是，全球流動性趨勢提供了更廣泛的觀點。

LONDON, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 07: A visual representation of the digital Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) alongside US Dollars. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

英國倫敦 - 12月7日：數字加密貨幣（BTC）的視覺代表與美元一起。 （Dan Kitwood/Getty Images的照片）

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 26% from this cycle’s all-time high, pushing market sentiment into “extreme fear.” But a broader perspective from global liquidity trends offers interesting insights amid the volatility.

比特幣（BTC）從這個週期的歷史最高時分中下降了26％，將市場情緒推向了“極端恐懼”。但是，從全球流動性趨勢中提出的更廣泛的觀點為波動性提供了有趣的見解。

Indeed, in today’s economic environment, the money supply plays a big role in shaping asset prices. This is especially true for bitcoin, which maintains a 0.94 correlation with global liquidity over the long term.

確實，在當今的經濟環境中，貨幣供應在塑造資產價格方面起著重要作用。對於比特幣而言，這尤其如此，該比特幣長期與全球流動性保持0.94的相關性。

Breaking Down Global Liquidity

打破全球流動性

Global liquidity refers to the overall availability of money and credit across the international financial system. It affects capital flows, investment, and asset prices, with central banks playing a crucial role through interest rates and monetary policy. Key institutions like the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), People’s Bank of China (PBoC), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) shape these conditions.

全球流動性是指整個國際金融體系中貨幣和信貸的總體可用性。它會影響資本流，投資和資產價格，中央銀行通過利率和貨幣政策發揮著至關重要的作用。美聯儲，歐洲中央銀行（ECB），中國人民銀行（PBOC）和日本銀行（BOJ）等主要機構塑造了這些條件。

A commonly used measure is Global M2. It encompasses cash, checking and savings deposits, money market accounts, and smaller time deposits below $100,000, all in U.S. dollar terms. It serves as a proxy for the total money readily available for spending, investing, and lending on a global scale.

常用的措施是全局M2。它涵蓋現金，支票和儲蓄存款，貨幣市場帳戶以及低於100,000美元以下的較小時間存款，均以美元計。它是一筆可用於全球範圍內支出，投資和貸款的總資金的代理。

Bitcoin’s price is closely linked to these global liquidity trends. The logic is simple: when there is more money available, asset prices tend to rise. Risk assets, like bitcoin, are particularly sensitive to liquidity, thriving in periods when investors adopt a risk-on strategy.

比特幣的價格與這些全球流動性趨勢緊密相關。邏輯很簡單：當有更多可用的資金可用時，資產價格往往會上漲。像比特幣這樣的風險資產對流動性特別敏感，在投資者採用風險策略的時期蓬勃發展。

Bitcoin and Liquidity Correlation: A Closer Look

比特幣和流動性相關性：仔細觀察

While bitcoin follows liquidity trends, the timing, specific events, and bitcoin’s internal liquidity dynamics also matter. A study by Sam Callahan for Lyn Alden, Inc. examined these factors.

儘管比特幣遵循流動性趨勢，但時間，特定事件和比特幣的內部流動性動態也很重要。 Sam Callahan為Lyn Alden，Inc。進行的一項研究檢查了這些因素。

Timing Is Key

時機是關鍵

Bitcoin shows a strong long-term correlation with liquidity, but short-term movements are subject to changes in specific market factors. An analysis of bitcoin’s performance from May 2013 to July 2024 indicates a 0.94 correlation with global liquidity over the long term. However, when measured using a 12-month rolling correlation, this drops to 0.51, and over a six-month rolling window, it falls further to 0.36.

比特幣顯示出與流動性的長期長期相關性，但是短期移動會隨特定市場因素的變化而約束。對比特幣從2013年5月到2024年7月的性能的分析表明，長期與全球流動性有0.94的相關性。但是，當使用12個月的滾動相關性測量時，它會下降到0.51，並且在六個月的滾動窗口上降至0.36。

Periods Where Correlation Weakens

相關性削弱的時期

The periods where bitcoin’s 12-month rolling correlation with liquidity weakens often coincide with significant industry or global events. The ICO bubble burst, the COVID-19 sell-off, or the recent Terra/Luna collapse (which triggered what Callahan calls a crypto credit contagion) disrupted market dynamics. These events may spark fear-driven selloffs, not directly related to liquidity trends.

比特幣與流動性相關的12個月滾動相關性的時期通常與重要的行業或全球事件相吻合。 ICO泡沫破裂，COVID-19賣出或最近的Terra/Luna崩潰（引發了Callahan所說的加密信貸傳染）破壞了市場動態。這些事件可能會引發恐懼驅動的拋售，而與流動性趨勢無直接相關。

Bitcoin’s Own Liquidity Cycle

比特幣自己的流動性週期

Bitcoin is not just an asset; it functions as money, with its own internal liquidity cycles. It follows a four-year halving cycle, where miners' rewards for securing the network are cut in half. While the reduction in new supply is relatively small, these halvings tend to ignite market-wide enthusiasm, often pushing prices into overbought territory. At that point, long-term holders capitalize on the rally by selling to new entrants.

比特幣不僅是資產；它用自身的內部流動性週期充當金錢。這是一個為期四年的減半週期，在這裡礦工獲得的確保網絡的獎勵被切成兩半。儘管新供應的減少相對較小，但這些過度往往會激發整個市場的熱情，通常將價格推向過多的領土。那時，長期持有人通過向新進入者銷售來利用集會。

This pattern played out in 2013, 2017, and 2021, when bitcoin hit extreme valuations and encountered sharp corrections afterward. These rapid price drops occurred despite no fundamental changes in bitcoin’s technology or utility. Instead, they were driven by internal market dynamics as the cryptocurrency quickly lost liquidity.

這種模式在2013年，2017年和2021年發行，當時比特幣達到極端估值並隨後遇到了銳利的校正。儘管比特幣的技術或實用程序沒有任何根本變化，但這些快速價格下降還是發生了。取而代之的是，由於加密貨幣很快失去流動性，它們是由內部市場動態驅動的。

A key metric for tracking the state of bitcoin’s valuation is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. It compares bitcoin’s market price to the average on-chain acquisition price (coin value at last transaction). The MVRV Z-score further refines this measure by considering historical volatility, making it a more precise indicator of valuation extremes. A high MVRV Z-score suggests bitcoin is overbought, signaling a potential correction, while a low score indicates undervaluation and accumulation opportunities.

跟踪比特幣估值狀態的關鍵指標是實現價值（MVRV）比率的市場價值。它將比特幣的市場價格與平均鏈習慣價格（終於交易的硬幣價值）進行了比較。 MVRV Z得分通過考慮歷史波動率進一步完善了這一措施，使其成為極端估值的更精確指標。高MVRV Z分數表明比特幣過於購買，表明潛在的校正，而較低的分數表示低估和累積機會。

Combining MVRV Z-Score with Correlation

將MVRV z得分與相關性結合

Chart: Sam Callahan for Lyn Alden, Inc.

圖表：Sam Callahan for Lyn Alden，Inc。

As the above chart showcases, when the MVRV Z-score drops sharply from elevated levels—which usually happens during periods of rapid price decline—we observe a corresponding decrease in bitcoin’s 12-month rolling correlation with liquidity. This shift occurs as internal market dynamics, like profit-taking and panic selling, become more dominant than broader liquidity conditions.

如上圖所示，當MVRV Z得分從升高的水平急劇下降時（通常發生在價格快速下降的時期）時，我們觀察到比特幣與流動性的12個月滾動相關性相應下降。這種轉變發生是因為內部市場動態（如獲取利潤和恐慌銷售）比更廣泛的流動性條件更為占主導地位。

In essence, even in a favorable liquidity environment, an overvalued bitcoin, as signaled by the MVRV Z-score, may still experience price corrections due to internal market forces. Conversely, even in a less favorable liquidity climate, a bitcoin valued below its realized price and low MVRV Z-score might attract accumulation from investors seeking opportunities in undervalued assets.

從本質上講，即使在有利的流動性環境中，MVRV Z-Score表示的高估比特幣也可能由於內部市場力量而導致的價格更正。相反，即使在不太有利的流動性環境中，比特幣的價值低於其實現的價格，而MVRV Z得分較低的比特幣也可能會吸引投資者的積累，從而尋求被低估資產的機會。

What Does Global Liquidity Suggest

全球流動性暗示什麼