宏观/加密货币夏季：流动性驱动的金融市场的关键阶段

Why the Macro/Crypto Summer Is a Big Deal

为什么宏观/加密货币夏天是一件大事

Is It Just a Fleeting Season?

这只是一个转瞬即逝的季节吗？

Nope. Raoul Pal, the trading guru behind Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, says the Macro/Crypto Summer is a major phase in the financial and crypto markets. It's not just a seasonal thing; it's rooted in the cyclical nature of the global economy.

没有。 Global Macro Investor 和 Real Vision 背后的交易大师 Raoul Pal 表示，宏观/加密货币夏季是金融和加密货币市场的一个重要阶段。这不仅仅是季节性的事情；它植根于全球经济的周期性。

What Is the Macro Summer?

什么是宏观夏季？

It's a key phase in "The Everything Code" cycle, according to Pal. It comes right after the Financial Conditions Index, which historically shows up about ten months before the cycle starts. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, which measures economic health, usually hits its lowest point during this period, marking the beginning of GDP growth.

帕尔表示，这是“一切代码”周期的关键阶段。它紧随金融状况指数之后，从历史上看，金融状况指数在周期开始前大约十个月出现。衡量经济健康状况的ISM（供应管理协会）指数通常会在此期间触及最低点，标志着GDP开始增长。

The Power of Liquidity

流动性的力量

Pal says liquidity is the driving force behind the Macro Summer. It hit a low at the end of 2022, and he believes it will keep rising through the end of 2025. This influx of liquidity is great news for tech stocks, which tend to thrive during these phases.

帕尔表示，流动性是宏观夏季背后的驱动力。它在 2022 年底触及低点，他相信它将持续上升到 2025 年底。这种流动性的涌入对于科技股来说是个好消息，因为科技股在这些阶段往往会蓬勃发展。

Crypto's Crazy Ride

加密货币的疯狂之旅

But it's Bitcoin and the crypto market that really take off during the Macro Summer and Fall. Pal has some mind-boggling growth figures from past cycles:

但在宏观夏季和秋季真正起飞的是比特币和加密货币市场。帕尔有一些过去周期中令人难以置信的增长数据：

• Bitcoin: 2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x...
• Ethereum: 2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x
• Altcoins (excluding ETH): +24x in the last cycle

Even DOGE, the popular meme coin, has seen huge gains during these periods:

比特币：2012/2013：+146x，2016/2017：+30x，2020/2021：+8x...以太坊：2016/2017：+1,770x，2020/2021：+41x山寨币（不包括ETH）：+24x上个周期，即使是流行的模因币 DOGE，在这些时期也取得了巨大的收益：

• 2016/2017: +136x
• 2020/2021: +370x

The Halving Connection

2016/2017：+136x2020/2021：+370x减半连接

Pal points out that the Macro Summer starts and fully develops after Bitcoin's halving events. These cycles are intertwined with the broader financial landscape.

帕尔指出，宏观夏季在比特币减半事件后开始并全面发展。这些周期与更广泛的金融格局交织在一起。

Liquidity on the Horizon

流动性即将到来

Pal expects liquidity to keep rising all the way into the end of 2025. He sees a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms, including potential increased US money printing, changes in Fed Net Liquidity, and the Treasury General Account (TGA).

帕尔预计流动性将持续上升，直至 2025 年底。他认为全球金融机制之间存在复杂的相互作用，包括美国可能增加印钞、美联储净流动性的变化以及财政部普通账户 (TGA)。

Who's Joining the Liquidity Party?

谁加入流动性党？

Pal isn't sure which countries will drive the liquidity injection, but he thinks it could be China, the EU, Japan, or the US, or maybe a combination of them.

帕尔不确定哪些国家将推动流动性注入，但他认为可能是中国、欧盟、日本或美国，或者可能是它们的组合。

The Everything Code Strategy

一切代码策略

Pal uses the insights from The Everything Code to guide his investment strategies, especially in tech and crypto. He's keeping a close eye on the altcoin market and the so-called "Banana Zone."

帕尔利用《一切代码》中的见解来指导他的投资策略，特别是在科技和加密货币领域。他密切关注山寨币市场和所谓的“香蕉区”。

Patience Is Key

耐心是关键

Pal advises patience during this time. The altcoin season is coming, and he believes the Banana Zone will be a huge wealth-generating machine.

帕尔建议在此期间保持耐心。山寨币季节即将到来，他相信香蕉区将成为一台巨大的财富创造机器。

Don't Miss the Boat

不要错过船

In the meantime, he warns against missing out on this opportunity. "Don't fuck this up," he says.

与此同时，他警告不要错过这个机会。 “别搞砸了，”他说。