Macro/Crypto Summer: A Pivotal Phase in Financial Markets, Driven by Liquidity

Why the Macro/Crypto Summer Is a Big Deal

Is It Just a Fleeting Season?

Nope. Raoul Pal, the trading guru behind Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, says the Macro/Crypto Summer is a major phase in the financial and crypto markets. It's not just a seasonal thing; it's rooted in the cyclical nature of the global economy.

What Is the Macro Summer?

It's a key phase in "The Everything Code" cycle, according to Pal. It comes right after the Financial Conditions Index, which historically shows up about ten months before the cycle starts. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, which measures economic health, usually hits its lowest point during this period, marking the beginning of GDP growth.

The Power of Liquidity

Pal says liquidity is the driving force behind the Macro Summer. It hit a low at the end of 2022, and he believes it will keep rising through the end of 2025. This influx of liquidity is great news for tech stocks, which tend to thrive during these phases.

Crypto's Crazy Ride

But it's Bitcoin and the crypto market that really take off during the Macro Summer and Fall. Pal has some mind-boggling growth figures from past cycles:

• Bitcoin: 2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x...
• Ethereum: 2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x
• Altcoins (excluding ETH): +24x in the last cycle

Even DOGE, the popular meme coin, has seen huge gains during these periods:

• 2016/2017: +136x
• 2020/2021: +370x

The Halving Connection

Pal points out that the Macro Summer starts and fully develops after Bitcoin's halving events. These cycles are intertwined with the broader financial landscape.

Liquidity on the Horizon

Pal expects liquidity to keep rising all the way into the end of 2025. He sees a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms, including potential increased US money printing, changes in Fed Net Liquidity, and the Treasury General Account (TGA).

Who's Joining the Liquidity Party?

Pal isn't sure which countries will drive the liquidity injection, but he thinks it could be China, the EU, Japan, or the US, or maybe a combination of them.

The Everything Code Strategy

Pal uses the insights from The Everything Code to guide his investment strategies, especially in tech and crypto. He's keeping a close eye on the altcoin market and the so-called "Banana Zone."

Patience Is Key

Pal advises patience during this time. The altcoin season is coming, and he believes the Banana Zone will be a huge wealth-generating machine.

Don't Miss the Boat

In the meantime, he warns against missing out on this opportunity. "Don't fuck this up," he says.