宏觀/加密貨幣夏季：流動性驅動的金融市場的關鍵階段

Why the Macro/Crypto Summer Is a Big Deal

為什麼宏觀/加密貨幣夏天是一件大事

Is It Just a Fleeting Season?

這只是一個轉瞬即逝的季節嗎？

Nope. Raoul Pal, the trading guru behind Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, says the Macro/Crypto Summer is a major phase in the financial and crypto markets. It's not just a seasonal thing; it's rooted in the cyclical nature of the global economy.

沒有。 Global Macro Investor 和 Real Vision 背後的交易大師 Raoul Pal 表示，宏觀/加密貨幣夏季是金融和加密貨幣市場的一個重要階段。這不僅僅是季節性的事情；它植根於全球經濟的周期性。

What Is the Macro Summer?

什麼是宏觀夏季？

It's a key phase in "The Everything Code" cycle, according to Pal. It comes right after the Financial Conditions Index, which historically shows up about ten months before the cycle starts. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) index, which measures economic health, usually hits its lowest point during this period, marking the beginning of GDP growth.

帕爾表示，這是「一切代碼」週期的關鍵階段。它緊隨金融狀況指數之後，從歷史上看，金融狀況指數在周期開始前大約十個月出現。衡量經濟健康狀況的ISM（供應管理協會）指數通常會在此期間觸及最低點，這標誌著GDP開始成長。

The Power of Liquidity

流動性的力量

Pal says liquidity is the driving force behind the Macro Summer. It hit a low at the end of 2022, and he believes it will keep rising through the end of 2025. This influx of liquidity is great news for tech stocks, which tend to thrive during these phases.

帕爾表示，流動性是宏觀夏季背後的驅動力。它在 2022 年底觸及低點，他相信它將持續上升到 2025 年底。這種流動性的湧入對科技股來說是個好消息，因為科技股在這些階段往往會蓬勃發展。

Crypto's Crazy Ride

加密貨幣的瘋狂之旅

But it's Bitcoin and the crypto market that really take off during the Macro Summer and Fall. Pal has some mind-boggling growth figures from past cycles:

但在宏觀夏季和秋季真正起飛的是比特幣和加密貨幣市場。帕爾有一些過去週期中令人難以置信的成長數據：

• Bitcoin: 2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x...
• Ethereum: 2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x
• Altcoins (excluding ETH): +24x in the last cycle

Even DOGE, the popular meme coin, has seen huge gains during these periods:

比特幣：2012/2013：+146x，2016/2017：+30x，2020/2021：+8x...以太坊：2016/2017：+1,770x，2020/2021：+41xx山寨幣（不含ETH） ：+24x上個週期，即使是流行的迷因幣 DOGE，在這些時期也取得了巨大的收益：

• 2016/2017: +136x
• 2020/2021: +370x

The Halving Connection

2016/2017：+136x2020/2021：+370x減半連接

Pal points out that the Macro Summer starts and fully develops after Bitcoin's halving events. These cycles are intertwined with the broader financial landscape.

帕爾指出，宏觀夏季在比特幣減半事件後開始並全面發展。這些週期與更廣泛的金融格局交織在一起。

Liquidity on the Horizon

流動性即將到來

Pal expects liquidity to keep rising all the way into the end of 2025. He sees a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms, including potential increased US money printing, changes in Fed Net Liquidity, and the Treasury General Account (TGA).

帕爾預計流動性將持續上升，直至 2025 年底。他認為全球金融機制之間存在複雜的相互作用，包括美國可能增加印鈔、聯準會淨流動性的變化以及財政部普通帳戶 (TGA)。

Who's Joining the Liquidity Party?

誰加入流動性黨？

Pal isn't sure which countries will drive the liquidity injection, but he thinks it could be China, the EU, Japan, or the US, or maybe a combination of them.

帕爾不確定哪些國家將推動流動性注入，但他認為可能是中國、歐盟、日本或美國，也可能是它們的組合。

The Everything Code Strategy

一切程式碼策略

Pal uses the insights from The Everything Code to guide his investment strategies, especially in tech and crypto. He's keeping a close eye on the altcoin market and the so-called "Banana Zone."

帕爾利用《一切代碼》中的見解來指導他的投資策略，特別是在科技和加密貨幣領域。他密切關注山寨幣市場和所謂的「香蕉區」。

Patience Is Key

耐心是關鍵

Pal advises patience during this time. The altcoin season is coming, and he believes the Banana Zone will be a huge wealth-generating machine.

帕爾建議在此期間保持耐心。山寨幣季節即將到來，他相信香蕉區將成為一台巨大的財富創造機器。

Don't Miss the Boat

不要錯過船

In the meantime, he warns against missing out on this opportunity. "Don't fuck this up," he says.

同時，他警告不要錯過這個機會。 「別搞砸了，」他說。