特朗普还是哈里斯？对加密货币交易所 Morpher 的押注

已经有许多其他平台，无论是加密货币还是传统平台，您都可以在其中押注 11 月 5 日美国总统选举的结果

Crypto exchange Morpher allows taking a position on the victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s elections.

加密货币交易所 Morpher 允许对唐纳德·特朗普或卡马拉·哈里斯在周二的选举中获胜采取立场。

Just yesterday, he announced this new feature. Want to take part in the heated

就在昨天，他宣布了这项新功能。想参加火热的

#USElection2024

#USEelection2024

discussion without voting?

不投票就讨论？

Back your candidate with Morpher and watch your predictions become profits!

使用 Morpher 支持您的候选人，并看着您的预测转化为利润！

🇺🇸💰As the countdown to November 5th intensifies, Morpher introduces the US Election Market, transforming political… pic.twitter.com/tMBWlCt0bB

🇺🇸💰随着 11 月 5 日倒计时的加剧，Morpher 介绍了美国选举市场，改变了政治…… pic.twitter.com/tMBWlCt0bB

Trump or Harris? The bets on the crypto exchange Morpher

特朗普还是哈里斯？对加密货币交易所 Morpher 的押注

There are already many other platforms, crypto or traditional, where you can bet on the outcome of the US presidential elections on November 5th, but it seems that Morpher is the only crypto exchange that allows it.

已经有许多其他平台，无论是加密货币还是传统平台，您都可以在其中押注 11 月 5 日美国总统选举的结果，但 Morpher 似乎是唯一允许这样做的加密货币交易所。

In the current state, just a few days before the vote, Donald Trump still seems to be in the lead, although in the very last few days it seems that Kamala Harris is recovering a bit of the disadvantage.

从目前的情况来看，就在投票前几天，唐纳德·特朗普似乎仍处于领先地位，尽管在最近几天卡马拉·哈里斯似乎正在弥补一些劣势。

Probably it is also due to this slight recovery that there has been a small downturn in the crypto markets, given that a potential victory for Trump should favor the crypto sector in the short term.

考虑到特朗普的潜在胜利短期内应该有利于加密货币行业，可能也正是由于这种小幅复苏，加密货币市场出现了小幅下滑。

In the medium/long term, however, the differences would probably be minimal, but since speculation operates mainly in the short term, even contained movements like these can be significant.

然而，从中长期来看，差异可能很小，但由于投机主要在短期内运作，即使是这样的有限波动也可能很重要。

For example, on Polymarket, the leading crypto betting platform in the world, at this moment Trump’s victory is given at 62%, but Harris in the last two days has risen from 33% to 68%.

例如，在全球领先的加密货币博彩平台 Polymarket 上，目前特朗普的胜利率为 62%，但哈里斯在过去两天已从 33% 上升至 68%。

It should be remembered, however, that these platforms do not actually have predictive capabilities, and that the bets of the bettors are sometimes so influenced by their personal biases that they can also turn out to be wrong in the end.

然而，应该记住的是，这些平台实际上并不具有预测能力，而且投注者的投注有时会受到个人偏见的影响，最终也可能被证明是错误的。

The exchange Morpher

交易所 Morpher

Morpher is a blockchain trading platform for stocks, criptovalute, forex, indices, and unique markets like sneakers and watches. Yesterday it released a new market, dedicated specifically to the outcome of the US presidential elections.

Morpher 是一个区块链交易平台，适用于股票、criptovalute、外汇、指数以及运动鞋和手表等独特市场。昨天，它发布了一个新市场，专门关注美国总统选举的结果。

The new exclusive market for the United States presidential elections has been created by Morpher using stable and verifiable data feeds, and it allows taking a position in favor of a candidate and seeing that position rise or fall based on polls, news, social media, and other external factors.

Morpher 使用稳定且可验证的数据源创建了美国总统选举的新专属市场，它允许采取有利于候选人的立场，并根据民意调查、新闻、社交媒体和社交媒体查看该立场的上升或下降。其他外部因素。

In the USA, the outcome of these elections will be decided by about 160 or 170 million registered voters, but in reality, the whole world is interested in the result. For this reason, the Morpher team has decided to create this unique market specifically for this election.

在美国，这些选举的结果将由大约160或1.7亿登记选民决定，但实际上，全世界都对结果感兴趣。为此，Morpher 团队决定专门为这次选举创建这个独特的市场。

Furthermore, the fact that the Morpher platform creates synthetic markets means that the actions taken on it will not affect the odds in either case. This is a very particular and original aspect of how Morpher works, given that on other platforms, bets influence the odds of winning. On Morpher, you simply attach your position to a stock, an index, a currency, and in this case, to a candidate.

此外，Morpher 平台创建合成市场的事实意味着对其采取的行动不会影响任何一种情况的赔率。这是 Morpher 工作方式的一个非常特殊和原创的方面，因为在其他平台上，投注会影响获胜的几率。在 Morpher 上，您只需将您的头寸附加到股票、指数、货币，在本例中，附加到候选人。

The company is based in Vienna, Austria, and has been involved in decentralized finance since 2018. Its platform allows trading of virtual copies of real-world financial markets using its proprietary protocol and the MPH token. Among its investors is also Tim Draper.

该公司总部位于奥地利维也纳，自 2018 年以来一直涉足去中​​心化金融。其平台允许使用其专有协议和 MPH 代币交易现实世界金融市场的虚拟副本。蒂姆·德雷珀 (Tim Draper) 也是其投资者之一。

The bets on the elections: Trump vs Harris on the crypto exchange Morpher

选举赌注：特朗普与哈里斯对加密货币交易所 Morpher 的赌注

The crypto platforms in fact facilitate betting.

事实上，加密货币平台促进了投注。

For example, in this case it is possible to participate in the discussion about the elections without voting, supporting a candidate and trying to turn one’s predictions into profits.

例如，在这种情况下，可以在不投票的情况下参与有关选举的讨论，支持候选人并试图将自己的预测转化为利润。

While in other cases one simply bets on the victory of a candidate, waiting until after November 5th to discover who will have won, in this case various pieces of information are gradually gathered in the preceding days that can influence the probability of victory, so that the positions taken on the platform by the bettors reflect the current potential for victory.

而在其他情况下，人们只是简单地押注某位候选人的胜利，等到 11 月 5 日之后才知道谁会获胜，而在这种情况下，前几天逐渐收集到的各种信息可能会影响获胜的概率，因此投注者在平台上采取的立场反映了当前获胜的潜力。

The betting market is enormous, and when global events of this magnitude come into play, with a certain outcome and predictable frequency, they manage to attract many bettors.

博彩市场是巨大的，当这种规模的全球事件发生时，以一定的结果和可预测的频率，它们会吸引许多投注者。

It is not surprising, therefore, that there are many platforms that allow betting on the outcome of these elections, and it is particularly interesting that different platforms allow for slightly different types of bets.

因此，有许多平台允许对这些选举的结果进行投注也就不足为奇了，而且特别有趣的是，不同的平台允许的投注类型略有不同。

The token MPH

令牌 MPH

MPH is a token on Ethereum.

MPH 是以太坊上的代币。

In reality, there are several tokens with the ticker MPH, but the one from Morpher is easily recognizable because its name is precisely Morpher.

事实上，有几种代币的代码为 MPH，但来自 Morpher 的代币很容易辨认，因为它的名字正是 Morpher。

It was launched on the crypto markets in 2020, with an initial price of about 18 thousandths of a dollar.

它于 2020 年在加密货币市场推出，初始价格约为千分之 18 美元。

During the last great bullrun, it reached its all-time highs at 88 thousandths in May 2021, while during the subsequent bear-market, it fell below 10 thousandths.

在上一次牛市中，该指数于 2021 年 5 月达到千分之 88 的历史高点，而在随后的熊市中，该指数跌破千分之 10。

During 2023, it returned above 20 thousandths

2023年期间，回报率超过千分之20