川普還是哈里斯？加密貨幣交易所 Morpher 的押注

已經有許多其他平台，無論是加密貨幣還是傳統平台，您都可以在其中押注 11 月 5 日美國總統選舉的結果

Crypto exchange Morpher allows taking a position on the victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s elections.

加密貨幣交易所 Morpher 允許對唐納德·特朗普或卡馬拉·哈里斯在周二的選舉中獲勝採取立場。

Just yesterday, he announced this new feature. Want to take part in the heated

就在昨天，他宣布了這項新功能。想參加火熱的

#USElection2024

#USEelection2024

discussion without voting?

不投票就討論？

Back your candidate with Morpher and watch your predictions become profits!

使用 Morpher 支持您的候選人，並看著您的預測轉化為利潤！

🇺🇸💰As the countdown to November 5th intensifies, Morpher introduces the US Election Market, transforming political… pic.twitter.com/tMBWlCt0bB

🇺🇸💰隨著 11 月 5 日倒數計時的加劇，Morpher 介紹了美國選舉市場，改變了政治… pic.twitter.com/tMBWlCt0bB

Trump or Harris? The bets on the crypto exchange Morpher

川普還是哈里斯？加密貨幣交易所 Morpher 的押注

There are already many other platforms, crypto or traditional, where you can bet on the outcome of the US presidential elections on November 5th, but it seems that Morpher is the only crypto exchange that allows it.

已經有許多其他平台，無論是加密貨幣還是傳統平台，您都可以在其中押注 11 月 5 日美國總統選舉的結果，但 Morpher 似乎是唯一允許這樣做的加密貨幣交易所。

In the current state, just a few days before the vote, Donald Trump still seems to be in the lead, although in the very last few days it seems that Kamala Harris is recovering a bit of the disadvantage.

從目前的情況來看，就在投票前幾天，唐納德·川普似乎仍處於領先地位，儘管在最近幾天卡馬拉·哈里斯似乎正在彌補一些劣勢。

Probably it is also due to this slight recovery that there has been a small downturn in the crypto markets, given that a potential victory for Trump should favor the crypto sector in the short term.

考慮到川普的潛在勝利短期內應該有利於加密貨幣產業，可能也正是由於這種小幅復甦，加密貨幣市場出現了小幅下滑。

In the medium/long term, however, the differences would probably be minimal, but since speculation operates mainly in the short term, even contained movements like these can be significant.

然而，從中長期來看，差異可能很小，但由於投機主要在短期內運作，即使是這樣的有限波動也可能很重要。

For example, on Polymarket, the leading crypto betting platform in the world, at this moment Trump’s victory is given at 62%, but Harris in the last two days has risen from 33% to 68%.

例如，在全球領先的加密貨幣博彩平台 Polymarket 上，目前川普的勝利率為 62%，但哈里斯在過去兩天已從 33% 上升至 68%。

It should be remembered, however, that these platforms do not actually have predictive capabilities, and that the bets of the bettors are sometimes so influenced by their personal biases that they can also turn out to be wrong in the end.

然而，應該記住的是，這些平台實際上並不具有預測能力，而且投注者的投注有時會受到個人偏見的影響，最終也可能被證明是錯誤的。

The exchange Morpher

交易所 Morpher

Morpher is a blockchain trading platform for stocks, criptovalute, forex, indices, and unique markets like sneakers and watches. Yesterday it released a new market, dedicated specifically to the outcome of the US presidential elections.

Morpher 是一個區塊鏈交易平台，適用於股票、criptovalute、外匯、指數以及運動鞋和手錶等獨特市場。昨天，它發布了一個新市場，專門關注美國總統選舉的結果。

The new exclusive market for the United States presidential elections has been created by Morpher using stable and verifiable data feeds, and it allows taking a position in favor of a candidate and seeing that position rise or fall based on polls, news, social media, and other external factors.

Morpher 使用穩定且可驗證的資料來源創建了美國總統選舉的新專屬市場，它允許採取有利於候選人的立場，並根據民意調查、新聞、社交媒體和社交媒體查看該立場的上升或下降。外部因素。

In the USA, the outcome of these elections will be decided by about 160 or 170 million registered voters, but in reality, the whole world is interested in the result. For this reason, the Morpher team has decided to create this unique market specifically for this election.

在美國，這些選舉的結果將由大約160或1.7億登記選民決定，但實際上，全世界都對結果感興趣。為此，Morpher 團隊決定專門為這次選舉創造這個獨特的市場。

Furthermore, the fact that the Morpher platform creates synthetic markets means that the actions taken on it will not affect the odds in either case. This is a very particular and original aspect of how Morpher works, given that on other platforms, bets influence the odds of winning. On Morpher, you simply attach your position to a stock, an index, a currency, and in this case, to a candidate.

此外，Morpher 平台創建合成市場的事實意味著對其採取的行動不會影響任何一種情況的賠率。這是 Morpher 工作方式的一個非常特殊和原創的方面，因為在其他平台上，投注會影響獲勝的幾率。在 Morpher 上，您只需將您的部位附加到股票、指數、貨幣，在本例中，附加到候選人。

The company is based in Vienna, Austria, and has been involved in decentralized finance since 2018. Its platform allows trading of virtual copies of real-world financial markets using its proprietary protocol and the MPH token. Among its investors is also Tim Draper.

該公司總部位於奧地利維也納，自 2018 年以來一直涉足去中​​心化金融。蒂姆·德雷珀 (Tim Draper) 也是其投資者之一。

The bets on the elections: Trump vs Harris on the crypto exchange Morpher

選舉賭注：川普與哈里斯對加密貨幣交易所 Morpher 的賭注

The crypto platforms in fact facilitate betting.

事實上，加密貨幣平台促進了投注。

For example, in this case it is possible to participate in the discussion about the elections without voting, supporting a candidate and trying to turn one’s predictions into profits.

例如，在這種情況下，可以在不投票的情況下參與有關選舉的討論，支持候選人並試圖將自己的預測轉化為利潤。

While in other cases one simply bets on the victory of a candidate, waiting until after November 5th to discover who will have won, in this case various pieces of information are gradually gathered in the preceding days that can influence the probability of victory, so that the positions taken on the platform by the bettors reflect the current potential for victory.

而在其他情況下，人們只是簡單地押注某位候選人的勝利，等到11 月5 日之後才知道誰會獲勝，而在這種情況下，前幾天逐漸收集到的各種信息可能會影響獲勝的機率，因此投注者在平台上採取的立場反映了當前獲勝的潛力。

The betting market is enormous, and when global events of this magnitude come into play, with a certain outcome and predictable frequency, they manage to attract many bettors.

博彩市場是巨大的，當這種規模的全球事件發生時，以一定的結果和可預測的頻率，它們會吸引許多投注者。

It is not surprising, therefore, that there are many platforms that allow betting on the outcome of these elections, and it is particularly interesting that different platforms allow for slightly different types of bets.

因此，有許多平台允許對這些選舉的結果進行投注也就不足為奇了，而且特別有趣的是，不同的平台允許的投注類型略有不同。

The token MPH

令牌 MPH

MPH is a token on Ethereum.

MPH 是以太坊上的代幣。

In reality, there are several tokens with the ticker MPH, but the one from Morpher is easily recognizable because its name is precisely Morpher.

事實上，有幾種代幣的代碼為 MPH，但來自 Morpher 的代幣很容易辨認，因為它的名字正是 Morpher。

It was launched on the crypto markets in 2020, with an initial price of about 18 thousandths of a dollar.

它於 2020 年在加密貨幣市場推出，初始價格約為千分之 18 美元。

During the last great bullrun, it reached its all-time highs at 88 thousandths in May 2021, while during the subsequent bear-market, it fell below 10 thousandths.

在上一次多頭市場中，該指數於 2021 年 5 月達到千分之 88 的歷史高點，而在隨後的熊市中，該指數跌破千分之 10。

During 2023, it returned above 20 thousandths

2023年期間，回報率超過千分之20