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加密货币新闻

从最近的多个月高点开始了一大批经济情绪和企业信贷健康

2025/03/21 20:10

考虑的指标是ICE/BOFA US高收益指数期权调整的扩散(OAS)

从最近的多个月高点开始了一大批经济情绪和企业信贷健康

A key gauge of economic sentiment and corporate credit health has pulled back from its recent multi-month highs in a positive development for risk-taking in stocks and crypto markets. The relief, however, could be short-lived, according to some observers.

在股票和加密货币市场的积极发展方面,一定的经济情绪和企业信贷健康的关键衡量已从其最近的多个月高点中撤出。然而,据一些观察家称,这种救济可能是短暂的。

The indicator in question is the ICE/BofA U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS). It tracks the average yield difference (spread) between U.S. dollar-denominated high-yield corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury securities, adjusted for embedded optionality in the bonds.

所讨论的指标是ICE/BOFA US高收益指数选择调整的扩散(OAS)。它跟踪了以美元计价的高收益公司债券和美国财政证券之间的平均收益率差异(利差),该证券已针对债券中的嵌入式期权性进行了调整。

It’s widely recognized as a credit risk barometer, with a wider spread indicating greater investor concern about corporate defaults or economic weakness, which often leads to investors reducing their exposure to riskier assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

它被广泛认为是一种信用风险晴雨表,广泛的价差表明投资者对公司违约或经济弱点的关注更大,这通常会导致投资者减少其对技术股票和加密货币等风险较高的资产的影响。

The OAS, which represents the premium investors demand for holding high-yielding bonds over the relatively safer Treasury notes, has decreased to 3.2% from the six-month high of 3.4% reached earlier this month.

OA代表了高级投资者对持有高收益债券比相对更安全的国库券的需求的要求,比本月早些时候达到的3.4%的六个月高点下降到3.2%。

This decline in the spread has coincided with a renewed rally in bitcoin (BTC) and Nasdaq.

利差的这种下降与比特币(BTC)和纳斯达克的重新集会相吻合。

The spread surged by 100 basis points in four weeks to mid-March as President Donald Trump's tariffs sparked concerns of a recession. During that period, both BTC and Nasdaq suffered setbacks, with the cryptocurrency falling to lows below $80K.

唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税引发了对经济衰退的担忧,这次蔓延在四个星期内飙升了100个基点。在此期间,BTC和纳斯达克均遭受挫折,加密货币降至低于$ 80K。

Temporary respite?

暂时的喘息?

Analysts anticipate that the OAS spread will widen further in the coming weeks as the negative impact of Trump's tariffs becomes more apparent, according to Mint and Reuters.

分析师预计,随着特朗普关税的负面影响变得更加明显,OAS的传播将在未来几周内进一步扩大。

"We think this is just getting started and will get worse before it gets better," said Hans Mikkelsen, managing director of credit strategy at TD Securities, in a recent note to clients.

TD Securities信用策略董事总经理汉斯·米克尔森(Hans Mikkelsen)在对客户的最新票据中说:“我们认为这刚刚起步,在变得更好之前会变得更糟。”

Applying technical analysis principles to the OAS chart also suggests the same.

将技术分析原则应用于OAS图表也相同。

The spread has moved above the three-year descending trendline, which is a significant level to watch for risk asset investors.

这次差异已经超过了为期三年的下降趋势线,这是关注风险资产投资者的重要水平。

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